埃及总统阿卜杜勒-法塔赫·塞西近日在宣布打算于2030年4月第三个总统任期结束后离任时，令观察人士感到意外。
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi surprised observers when he recently announced his intention to leave office after his third presidential term ends in April 2030.
此前外界普遍猜测，塞西将推动修改埃及宪法，以便再连任一届，甚至无限期连任。
El-Sisi had been widely suspected of moving to amend the Egyptian constitution to allow him to serve another term, or possibly indefinitely.
但在埃及军事学院毕业典礼上，塞西坚称自己的离任已成定局，并表示“不会有人篡改”宪法。
But speaking at a graduation ceremony at the Egyptian Military Academy, el-Sisi insisted that his departure was a settled matter and that “no one would tamper with” the constitution.
那么，这一决定背后有何考量？有许多猜测认为，塞西可能利用这一表态来争取民众对第四任期的支持，或抢先一步防范军方针对他的行动。但也有可能，他是在为埃及军事统治的下一阶段铺路。
So what is behind the decision? There has been much speculation that el-Sisi may use this declaration to rally popular support for a fourth term or preempt a move by the military against him. But there is also the possibility that he is setting up the next phase of military rule in Egypt.
首先必须指出，主动放弃权力对任何威权领导人来说都是冒险之举。
It is important to point out first that voluntarily leaving power is a risky proposition for any authoritarian leader.
就塞西而言，他在2030年离任将留下一种可能性：未来的埃及政府可能会试图将他作为替罪羊，为该国的问题负责，甚至追究他在总统任内涉嫌犯下的罪行。
In el-Sisi’s case, his 2030 departure would leave open the possibility that a future Egyptian government could seek to use him as a scapegoat for the country’s problems, possibly even holding him to account for alleged crimes committed during his presidency.
塞西于2013年发动政变，推翻了埃及首位民选总统穆尔西，此举伴随着大屠杀，并导致数万名政客、活动人士和记者入狱。
El-Sisi led a coup in 2013 against Egypt’s first democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi, which was accompanied by massacres and the jailing of tens of thousands of politicians, activists, and journalists.
塞西的经济表现也备受批评，批评者指责他及其政府腐败、财政政策不善，并在面子工程上大肆挥霍。埃及债务占国内生产总值（GDP）的比重达81%，仅利息支出就超过医疗、教育、工资和补贴支出的总和。与此同时，自2014年以来，埃及镑兑美元汇率贬值超过80%，累计通胀率超过460%。
El-Sisi’s economic record has also been the subject of criticism, with detractors accusing him and his government of corruption poor fiscal policy and lavish spending on vanity projects. Egypt’s debt stands at 81 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), with interest payments alone exceeding combined spending on healthcare, education, wages and subsidies. Meanwhile, the Egyptian pound has lost more than 80 percent of its value against the US dollar since 2014, while cumulative inflation exceeds 460 percent.
在此背景下，塞西宣布计划于2030年卸任，颇为出人意料。有人推测，他并无真正离职的意图，可能会像以往那样反悔。2013年，在穆尔西被推翻后，塞西否认将竞选总统。
In this context, el-Sisi’s announcement that he plans to step down in 2030 was rather unexpected. Some have speculated that he has no intention of actually leaving office and could go back on his statement, as he has done before. In 2013, following Morsi’s overthrow, el-Sisi denied that he would run for president.
2017年，他在接受媒体采访时表示致力于“维护宪法规定的两届四年任期，不作修改”，但随后于2019年主导推动了宪法修正案。
After telling the media in 2017 that he was committed to “preserving [the constitution’s] two four-year terms and not changing it”, he helped lead the drive to amend the constitution in 2019.
一位司法消息人士上周对《马达马斯尔》表示，塞西的声明为“民众呼吁”总统留任留下了空间。
A judicial source told Mada Masr last week that el-Sisi’s announcement left open the door for a “popular call” for the president to remain in office.
第二种可能是，塞西此举可能意在抢先防范可能发生的军事干预，如果经济持续恶化，这种干预的可能性会增加。
A second possibility is that with this move, el-Sisi may be attempting to preempt a possible military intervention, which could become more likely if the economy continues to falter.
2011年，针对前总统穆巴拉克的民众抗议爆发后，军方迫使其下台。
In 2011, the military responded to popular protests against former President Hosni Mubarak by forcing him to step down.
军方可能试图通过将塞西作为替罪羊、强行将其免职，并由另一人取而代之来平息公众愤怒，以维持一定程度的稳定并保障其庞大的经济利益。
The army could attempt to defuse public anger by presenting el-Sisi as a scapegoat, forcibly removing him from power, and replacing him with someone who can preserve a measure of stability as well as secure its vast economic interests.
在此背景下，一名议员最近表示，他在私下会议上听塞西说过，他宁愿主动辞职，也不愿等待军方迫使他下台。
In that context, a member of parliament said recently that he has heard el-Sisi say in private meetings that he would rather step down than wait for the military to force him out.
但第三种可能性要大得多，值得特别关注：塞西可能正在为卸任总统职务做准备，同时确保埃及军方主导的政治体制在他离任后得以延续。
But a third and much more likely possibility deserves particular attention: el-Sisi may be preparing to leave the presidency while ensuring that Egypt’s military-dominated political system survives his departure.
他在宣布时引用宪法第200条，或许并非巧合，该条赋予武装部队在埃及政治中非同寻常的角色。
It is perhaps not coincidental that during the announcement, he cited Article 200 of the constitution, which gives the armed forces an extraordinary role in Egyptian politics.
该条款于2019年修订，规定军方负责维护国家的“民主”以及埃及人民的“成果、权利与自由”。
The article, amended in 2019, makes the military responsible for maintaining the country’s “democracy” and the “gains, rights and freedoms” of the Egyptian people.
据塞西称，该条款的目的是“保护埃及国家免受任何渗透企图，或防止那些无法承担起对该国责任、甚至不理解‘国家’含义的人接管国家”。
According to el-Sisi, the aim of the article is “to protect the Egyptian state from any attempt to infiltrate it or allow people to take it over who cannot handle the responsibility of this country or who do not even understand the meaning of ‘state’”.
第200条与第234条相结合——后者要求总统在任命国防部长前必须获得武装部队最高委员会的批准——使军方对埃及政治生活拥有重大控制权。
Article 200, combined with Article 234 — which requires that a president secure approval from the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces before appointing a defence minister — gives the military significant control over Egyptian political life.
塞西关于埃及下一任总统选拔的设想，赋予了军方超常规的角色。他的提议包括成立一个专家委员会，起草立法以选拔数百名受过高等教育的埃及人，送往埃及军事学院接受专门培训。
El-Sisi’s vision for the selection of Egypt’s next president gives the military an outsized role. His proposal includes setting up a committee of experts to draft legislation for selecting hundreds of highly educated Egyptians to undergo specialised training at the Egyptian Military Academy.
塞西提议，申请人应持有博士学位，年龄在40至50岁之间，并准备在学院度过30个月，学习关于埃及国家的知识。该计划还将培养未来的部长、省长和议会议员。
Applicants, el-Sisi proposes, should hold doctoral degrees, be between 40 and 50 years of age, and be prepared to spend 30 months at the academy learning about the Egyptian state. The programme would also train future ministers, governors and members of parliament.
结合第200条和第234条，这一拟议机制似乎旨在让军方的主导地位在塞西卸任后长期得以保全。这对塞西本人也可能有利。
Combined with Articles 200 and 234, this proposed mechanism seems intended to preserve the military’s dominance long after el-Sisi leaves office. It could be favourable to him as well.
一位真正独立的文人总统可能会寻求调查塞西监管下的屠杀事件、腐败指控或其他涉嫌罪行。由军方严密管控的过渡进程极不可能产生这种结果。
A genuinely independent, civilian president could seek to investigate massacres overseen by el-Sisi, allegations of corruption, or other alleged crimes. A transition process closely managed by the military is highly unlikely to yield such a result.
目前的公开问题是，对于一个由军方主导、实际上抹杀了民众授权必要性的政治进程，日益感到沮丧和不满的埃及公众将如何回应。
The open question now is how an increasingly frustrated and critical Egyptian public will respond to a political process managed by the military that effectively wipes out the need for a popular mandate.
目前，塞西和军方似乎决心塑造埃及的政治未来。但人民可能拥有最后的话语权。
For now, el-Sisi and the military appear determined to shape Egypt’s political future. But the people may have the last word.