密歇根州拉皮兹市 —— 几个月来，进步派一直将密歇根州参议员竞选视为最佳良机，以此证明一位自豪的左翼候选人能够在一场艰难的选举中获胜。
RAPIDS, Michigan — For months, progressives have seen the Michigan Senate race as the best chance to show that a proudly left-wing candidate could win a tough election.
民主党提名人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德曾预测他将以7个百分点的优势获胜，并将自己定位为未来总统大选的关键掌权者。众议员亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯（民主党-纽约州）近日在一场筹款活动上表示，埃尔-赛义德的胜利将证明“任何人都能在任何地方获胜”。但距离选举日不足一周之际，埃尔-赛义德正严重依赖更传统的民主党人提供支持，与前总统贝拉克·奥巴马一同造势，并接受自称温和派的密歇根州参议员埃莉萨·斯洛特金的帮助。那么，他现在还认为会以7个百分点获胜吗？
Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee, predicted he’d win by 7 points and cast himself as a future presidential power broker. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said at a recent fundraiser that an El-Sayed victory would prove “anybody can win anywhere.”But with less than one week until Election Day, El-Sayed is leaning heavily on more traditional Democrats for support, stumping with former President Barack Obama and embracing help from Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin, an avowed moderate. And does he still think he’ll win by 7 points?
“我们拭目以待，”埃尔-赛义德在接受《政治报》（POLITICO）采访时含糊其辞地回答。
“We’ll see,” El-Sayed hedged, in an interview with POLITICO.
埃尔-赛义德依然大力推行进步派政策。但他更为传统的冲刺阶段策略，或许在一定程度上是对活动家左翼将这场竞选变成民主党变革时刻这一雄心的现实检验。
El-Sayed is still running hard on progressive policies. But his more conventional closing tactics may be something of a reality check on the aspirations of the activist left to turn his race into a transformational moment for the Democratic Party.
这也凸显了一场顽固胶着的竞选所面临的现实，其结果对进步派2028年的希望，或许与对民主党控制参议院的梦想同样重要。
And they underscore the realities of a stubbornly close race whose result might matter as much for progressives’ 2028 hopes as for Democrats’ dreams of Senate control.
在大多数公开民调中，埃尔-赛义德对罗杰斯保持微弱领先，但他的支持率落后于民主党全国竞选组合的顶端候选人。他的支持者警告称，温和派、黑人和犹太裔选民中仍存疑虑，这些群体在初选中主要支持他的对手 —— 并担心这种疑虑正因共和党针对埃尔-赛义德宗教信仰和种族背景的猛烈攻击而加剧。
El-Sayed has a slight lead over Rogers in most public polls, but he is running behind the top of the Democratic ticket. His supporters warn that skepticism persists among swathes of moderate, Black and Jewish voters who largely broke for his primary rival — and worry it’s being exacerbated by a barrage of Republican attacks on El-Sayed’s religion and ethnicity.
“这对他来说将是一场硬仗，”该州民主党活动人士拉沃尼亚·佩里曼说，她支持埃尔-赛义德。“他们不是傻瓜。对这一切都没有幻想。他的竞选团队没有，支持他的社区民众也没有。”如今，密歇根州再次成为全国政治权力斗争的中心，民主党人不愿听天由命。参议院民主党人的主要竞选团体已向该州投入超过5000万美元，尽管他们已能够削减在佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州的开支——特朗普在2024年在这两个州以更大优势获胜——因为他们几乎已锁定胜局。
“It's going to be tight for him,” said Lavonia Perryman, a Democratic activist in the state who is supporting El-Sayed. “They're not fools. There are no illusions around any of this. Not at his camp. Not the people in the community who support him.”Now, as Michigan again becomes the epicenter of the nation’s political power struggle, Democrats aren’t leaving it to chance. Senate Democrats’ top campaign groups have pumped more than $50 million into the state, even as they’ve been able to dial down spending in Georgia and North Carolina, two states President Donald Trump won by wider margins in 2024, because they’ve all but sewn up wins.
在初选前，埃尔-赛义德曾乐观预测他将以两位数优势赢得那场竞选。他显得如此自信，以至于在选举前夕参加了有争议的主播哈桑·皮克的私人泳池派对。他在与温和派众议员海利·史蒂文斯（民主党-密歇根州）的激烈初选对决中投票尚未结束前，就押注自己将在大选中以七个百分点获胜。
Before his primary, El-Sayed bullishly predicted he would win that race by double digits. He appeared so confident he attended a private pool party with controversial streamer Hasan Piker on election eve. He placed his seven-point general-election bet before polls had even closed in his slugfest against moderate Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.).
最终，他仅以一个百分点的微弱优势勉强通过初选，但对11月大选获胜的信念依然坚定。如今，他的态度更加谨慎。
He ended up squeaking through the primary by only a percentage point, but remained steadfast in his conviction about November. Now, he’s treading more cautiously.
“我们对目前的形势感到非常有信心，”当被问及第二次是否坚持七个百分点的预测时，埃尔-赛义德在大急流城与参议员伯尼·桑德斯（无党籍-佛蒙特州）共同举行集会的间隙说道。
“We feel really strong about where we are,” El-Sayed said when asked a second time on the sidelines of his Grand Rapids rally with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) whether he stood by his seven-point call.
他反复将关于下周二选举结果对进步运动意义的问题转移开，表示自己专注于手头的任务。
And he repeatedly redirected questions about what next Tuesday’s results would mean for the progressive movement, saying he was focused on the task at hand.
“这是关于为我州1000万民众带来实实在在的成果。我参选不是为了成为任何事物的化身，”他说。“密歇根州出于许多政治原因发出了响亮的声音，但这与我无关。”一些民主党人认为，尽管埃尔-赛义德在党内某些圈子遇到阻力，他仍可能获胜。
“This is about delivering results for the 10 million people in my state. I’m not running to be an avatar for anything,” he said. “Michigan speaks very loudly for a lot of reasons politically, but this isn’t about me.”Some Democrats think El-Sayed may win in spite of the resistance he’s encountering within some pockets of the party.
“目前你得说埃尔-赛义德占优势。并非因为他作为候选人的素质——他似乎落后于大环境，”总部设在密歇根州的民主党策略师阿德里安·海蒙德说。“现在的大环境对共和党来说简直是毒药。”周六，几位选民和活动人士挤在底特律一间闷热的高中体育馆里聆听奥巴马演讲，他们表示，这位前总统将对缓解黑人选民的担忧起到关键作用——包括对埃尔-赛义德过去批评其执政时期的担忧。
“You have to say advantage El-Sayed at this point. Not because of his quality as a candidate — he seems to be running behind the environment,” said Michigan-based Democratic strategist Adrian Hemond. “The environment is poison right now for Republicans.”Several voters and activists who packed a too-hot high school gymnasium in Detroit on Saturday to see Obama said the former president would be critical to easing concerns among Black voters — including about El-Sayed’s past critiques of his time in office.
“我们不可能在每个问题的每个细节上都达成一致，”奥巴马在台上说。“在手段上存在分歧，不同于在目标上——即我们的奋斗目标上存在分歧。”而埃尔-赛义德正试图瓦解特朗普的支持者联盟，最近推出的一则广告针对 Newsmax 和福克斯新闻的观众，称华盛顿是“腐败的沼泽”，并宣扬他在某些议题上与“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）选民的重合之处。
“We are not going to agree on every detail of every issue,” Obama said on stage. “Disagreeing on means is different from disagreeing on ends — on our goals.”And El-Sayed is trying to cut into Trump’s coalition with a recent ad targeting Newsmax and Fox News viewers calling Washington a “corrupt swamp” and touting his overlap on some issues with MAGA voters.
尽管如此，埃尔-赛义德清楚地认识到自己不可能赢得所有人的支持——并强调他不会为了赢得选票而“迎合”。
Still, El-Sayed is clear-eyed that he’s not going to win over everyone — and emphatic that he’s not going to “pander” to do it.
“你永远赢不了所有选票。我的目标是赢得尽可能多的选票，”他说。“我认为我们之所以取得成功，至少是因为我把我的想法告诉了你们。”
“You’re never going to win all the votes. My goal is to win as many votes as possible,” he said. “I think the reason we're succeeding is because at least I'm telling you what I think.”