非洲国家是否应将天然气视为向可再生能源转型过程中的“过渡燃料”，这一由来已久的争论已经沉寂。西方机构近年来拒绝投资天然气基础设施，理由是相关国家将陷入对化石燃料的依赖。许多非洲政策制定者回应称，发达经济体是靠煤炭和石油积累财富的，而且非洲大陆的碳排放量不到全球的4%。但伊朗战争引发的能源冲击让这场争论戛然而止。
The longstanding debate over whether African nations should view gas as a “transition fuel” in the shift to renewable energy has gone quiet. Western institutions in recent years refused to invest in gas infrastructure, arguing countries would be locked into fossil fuel dependence. Many African policymakers responded that advanced economies built their wealth on coal and oil, adding their continent accounts for less than 4% of global carbon emissions. But the energy shock caused by the Iran war has silenced the debate.
简而言之，世界需要天然气来发电和为重工业提供动力。咨询公司Horizon Engage中东和北非事务主管安德鲁·法兰德表示，海湾地区的国有企业在遭到袭击后，正寻求入股天然气项目。他说：“我们现在处于一个生产国不得不实现多元化的世界。”欧洲国家减少对俄罗斯天然气依赖的努力早已在进行中。而特朗普政府已施压世界银行，要求其终止对上游天然气项目融资的禁令。
Put simply, the world needs gas to generate electricity and power heavy industry. The Gulf’s state-owned companies are looking for stakes in gas projects after being targeted in strikes, said Andrew Farrand, director of Middle East and North Africa at consultancy Horizon Engage. “We’re now in a world where producers have to diversify,” he said. Efforts by European nations to reduce their dependence on Russian gas were already underway. And the Trump administration has pushed the World Bank to end its prohibition on financing upstream gas projects.
尼日利亚拥有全球第九大已探明天然气储量，成为主要受益者。对其液化天然气需求的上升伴随着一连串投资公告，其中包括对数十年来一直停滞不前的发现项目的投资。
Nigeria, which has the world’s ninth-largest proven reserves of natural gas, stands out as a major beneficiary. Rising demand for its liquefied natural gas has been accompanied by a flurry of investment announcements, including for discoveries that lay moribund for decades.
总部位于拉各斯的能源公司CRYO Gas & Power总裁蒂米·索莱耶表示，近几个月来他突然接到大量投资者的询问，因为尼日利亚大型天然气项目的风险考量已经“发生了实质性变化”。索莱耶说，负责输送尼日利亚和赤道几内亚天然气的几内亚湾没有咽喉要道，因此要封锁它需要“一整支海军”。
Timi Soleye, president of Lagos-headquartered energy company CRYO Gas & Power, said he has fielded a sudden wave of inquiries from investors in recent months because the risk calculus for large gas projects in Nigeria has “changed substantially.”The Gulf of Guinea, which carries gas from Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea, has no choke points, so blockading it would take “a full navy,” Soleye said.
莫桑比克和塞内加尔等国将受益于全球天然气生产多元化的努力。坦桑尼亚也是如此，该国本周宣布了十多年来首个重大天然气发现，并正在规划一个420亿美元的液化天然气项目，这是东非拟议中最大的能源开发项目之一。
Mozambique and Senegal are among the countries set to benefit from efforts to diversify global gas production. The same is true of Tanzania, which this week announced its first major natural gas discovery in more than a decade and is planning a $42 billion LNG project, one of East Africa’s largest proposed energy developments.
一场新的辩论正在形成。非洲的政策制定者将不得不在出口天然气的利益与保留部分天然气用于发电之间取得平衡。这两种做法都需要昂贵的基础设施，但出口可以迅速充实政府金库，而利用天然气推动工业化则有可能带来更大的长期回报。
A new debate is taking shape. African policymakers will have to balance the benefits of exporting gas against retaining some for electricity generation. Both approaches require costly infrastructure, but while exports could quickly fill government coffers, using gas to fuel industrialization has the potential to deliver a larger long-term payoff.