中国长江三角洲地区今年前三季度经济增速快于全国大局，占全国总产出约四分之一——分析人士表示，这一表现将有助于为北京实现全年国家增长目标奠定基础。
China’s Yangtze River Delta grew faster than the national economy in the first three quarters of the year, accounting for about a quarter of national output – a performance analysts said would help lay the foundation for Beijing to meet its annual national growth target.
但他们同时警告，如果缺乏疲软的国内需求复苏，仅靠出口和高科技制造业无法支撑更长期的增长。
But they also cautioned that exports and hi-tech manufacturing alone could not sustain longer-term growth without a recovery in sluggish domestic demand.
根据区域政府数据，上海、江苏、浙江和安徽三省一市组成的长三角地区前三季度生产总值合计达约26.75万亿元人民币（约合4万亿美元）。
The combined gross domestic product of Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui, which together make up the Yangtze River Delta region in eastern China, reached about 26.75 trillion yuan (US$4 trillion) in the first three quarters, according to regional government data.
拥有出口重镇义乌、电商巨头阿里巴巴集团和车企吉利的浙江，以5.6%的同比增速领跑。阿里巴巴持有《南华早报》。
Zhejiang, home to the export hub of Yiwu and major companies including e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding and carmaker Geely, recorded the fastest growth at 5.6 per cent year on year. Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post.
作为中国大陆金融中心、拥有全球最繁忙集装箱港口的上海，增长5.5%；安徽增5.3%，江苏增5.2%，分列其后。
Shanghai, mainland China’s financial centre and home to the world’s busiest container port, expanded 5.5 per cent, followed by Anhui at 5.3 per cent and Jiangsu at 5.2 per cent.
四地均跑赢同期全国4.6%的增速，也均高于北京设定的全年GDP增长目标区间（4.5%至5%左右）。
All four outperformed China’s national growth rate of 4.6 per cent over the same period and came in above Beijing’s full-year GDP target of between 4.5 and 5 per cent.
澳新银行研究部高级中国策略师邢兆鹏表示，出口是该区域增长的主要驱动力，特别是电子产品和“新三样”产业：电动汽车、锂离子电池和光伏产品。
Xing Zhaopeng, a senior China strategist at ANZ Research, said exports had been a major driver of the region’s growth, particularly electronics and the “new three” industries: electric vehicles (EVs), lithium-ion batteries and solar products.
荷兰国际集团（ING）的宋嘉琳表示：“我们在半导体、人工智能、机器人、电动汽车和数字制造等领域看到特别强劲的增长。”她预计该区域的表现将“基本为中国实现4.5%增长奠定基础”。
We are seeing particularly strong growth in areas such as semiconductors, AI, robotics, EVs and digital manufacturingLynn Song, ING He said he expected the region’s performance to “basically lay the groundwork [for China] to achieve 4.5 per cent growth”.
官方数据显示，浙江前三季度“新三样”产品出口增长61.1%，其中电动汽车出口激增120%，锂离子电池出口攀升86.6%。
Official data showed Zhejiang’s exports of “new three” products rose 61.1 per cent in the first three quarters, with electric vehicle exports surging by 120 per cent and lithium-ion battery exports climbing 86.6 per cent.
江苏机电产品出口增长34.9%，主要得益于计算机零部件和手机。
Jiangsu’s exports of mechanical and electrical products grew 34.9 per cent, driven mainly by computer parts and mobile phones.
上海对东盟“新三样”产业出口同样强劲，其中太阳能产品出货量激增340%。
Shanghai also recorded strong export growth in the “new three” industries to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, including a 340 per cent surge in shipments of solar products.
北京社会科学院副研究员王鹏表示，高科技产业也已成为区域扩张的主要引擎。
Wang Peng, an associate researcher at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, said hi-tech industries had also emerged as a major engine of regional expansion.
他说，该地区不再主要依靠低成本在全球竞争，而是越来越多地依靠高附加值产品巩固其在全球产业链中的地位。
Rather than competing globally primarily on low cost, the region was increasingly relying on higher-value-added products to strengthen its position in global industrial supply chains, he said.
前九个月，上海三大先导产业——集成电路、生物医药和人工智能——产值增长17.1%。
In the first nine months, the output value of Shanghai’s three leading industries – integrated circuits, biomedicine and artificial intelligence – increased 17.1 per cent.
江苏集成电路产值增长28.3%，工业机器人产量攀升47.1%。
Jiangsu’s integrated-circuit output grew 28.3 per cent, while its production of industrial robots climbed 47.1 per cent.
浙江服务机器人产量激增91%，工业机器人增长37.5%。作为新能源汽车和先进制造新兴枢纽的安徽，高技术制造业增加值增长50.3%。
In Zhejiang, output of service robots surged 91 per cent while industrial robots rose 37.5 per cent. Anhui, an emerging hub for EVs and advanced manufacturing, recorded a 50.3 per cent increase in value added in its hi-tech manufacturing sector.
荷兰国际集团大中华区首席经济学家宋嘉琳表示：“我们在半导体、人工智能、机器人、新能源汽车和数字制造等领域看到特别强劲的增长，长三角地区是这些活动的大本营，因此其跑赢全国增速并不令人意外。”
“We are seeing particularly strong growth in areas such as semiconductors, AI, robotics, EVs and digital manufacturing, and with the Yangtze River Delta region the home of a lot of this activity, it's not surprising to see it outperform the national growth rate,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING.
宋嘉琳预计中国将实现2026年的增长目标，预测全年GDP增长4.6%。
Song expected China to achieve its growth target for 2026, forecasting full-year GDP growth of 4.6 per cent.
不过，投资仍是弱项。前三季度上海固定资产投资增长4.3%，但江苏、浙江和安徽均出现下降，反映出房地产行业持续疲软和国内需求低迷。
Investment, however, remains a weak spot. Fixed-asset investment rose 4.3 per cent in Shanghai during the first three quarters but declined in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui, reflecting continued weakness in the property sector and subdued domestic demand.
邢某表示，第四季度出口增长可能保持韧性，但明年势必会放缓。“如果没有内需复苏，目前的增长轨迹将不可持续，”他警告说。
Xing said export growth was likely to remain resilient in the fourth quarter but would inevitably slow next year. “Without a recovery in domestic demand, the current growth trajectory would be unsustainable,” he warned.
宋某还强调了“外部需求放缓或贸易壁垒上升，以及可能出现的AI泡沫破裂”带来的风险。
Song also highlighted risks posed by “a slowdown in external demand or rising trade barriers, and a possible AI bust”.
鉴于中国经济今年失衡加剧，他说在消费和投资经历了一个明显的下行年份后，“提振内需仍然很重要”。
Given the growing imbalances in China’s economy this year, he said it remained “important to bolster domestic demand after a clear down year for consumption and investment”.