众议院民主党人似乎正在向几十年来最大的普选票胜利之一迈进。CNN民调平均显示，他们在所谓的“通用选票”测试中领先9个百分点，这在很大程度上归因于唐纳德·特朗普总统历史性的低支持率。上一次任一政党在中期选举中以至少10个百分点的优势赢得众议院普选票，还是在1986年。
House Democrats appear to be flirting with one of the biggest popular vote wins in decades. The CNN Poll of Polls shows them leading the so-called “generic ballot” by 9 points, thanks in large part to President Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity. The last time either party won the House popular vote by at least 10 points in a midterm was in 1986.
但比起参议院，众议院的争夺战更难追踪。共有435个选区的竞选，很难知道哪些最关键。如何判断民主党仅仅是在争取组成多数所需的218个席位——这被普遍预期他们会赢得——还是正在形成一股浪潮？
But more so than the Senate, the battle for the House is difficult to follow. There are so many races — 435 of them, to be exact — and it’s tough to know which ones are important. How do you know whether Democrats are merely competing for the 218 seats needed for the majority — which they’re widely expected to win — or building a wave?
我们挑选了几个关键选区，它们将显示民主党是否在赢得席位、是否足以获得多数，以及是否正在形成一股浪潮甚至海啸。在选举夜关注这些选区，就能知道民主党表现如何。无论在何种情况下，这些都是民主党理应赢下的选区类型。
We’ve picked a few races that will indicate whether Democrats are gaining seats, whether that’s enough for the majority and whether there’s a wave or even a tsunami building. Follow these races on election night to know how well Democrats are doing. These are the kinds of races Democrats really be winning, under any circumstances.
加利福尼亚州第1选区：重新划分选区后，该区在2024年本应以12个百分点的优势支持卡马拉·哈里斯，这本该是民主党最容易拿下的席位。共和党众议员詹姆斯·加拉格尔寻求连任，但如果民主党连这里都赢不下来，他们将面临一些令人震惊的结果。
California’s 1st District: This should be Democrats’ easiest pickup, after the district was redrawn to be one that would’ve favored Kamala Harris by 12 points in 2024. GOP Rep. James Gallagher is seeking reelection, but if Democrats can’t win here, they’re in for some shocking results.
内布拉斯加州第2选区：考虑到温和派共和党众议员唐·培根退休，加上这个奥马哈地区选区略微偏蓝，民主党政治活动家丹尼斯·鲍威尔理应在此获胜。
Nebraska’s 2nd District: Given moderate GOP Rep. Don Bacon’s retirement and the slight blue lean of this Omaha-area district, this one should be a win for Democratic political activist Denise Powell.
新泽西州第7选区：这是一个摇摆选区，所在州在2024年总统大选与2025年州选举之间向民主党倾斜。加上共和党众议员小汤姆·基恩长达数月的不明原因缺席——他后来称是接受抑郁症治疗——以及一个主要共和党超级政治行动委员会最近从该选区撤资，迹象表明民主党有望拿下此席位。
New Jersey’s 7th District: This is a swing district in a state that moved toward Democrats between the 2024 presidential election and the 2025 state elections. Combine that with GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr.’s months-long unexplained absence — he later cited treatment for depression — and the fact that a top Republican super PAC recently pulled money out of this district, and the signs of a Democratic pickup are there.
这些选区若获胜，意味着民主党已跨过赢得众议院多数席位的低门槛。（从技术上讲，他们需要翻转三个共和党席位，但共和党在十年中期的重新划分选区实际上将这一门槛提高了几个席位。）亚利桑那州第6选区：共和党众议员胡安·西斯科马尼几周前没有现身特朗普在亚利桑那州举行的集会，这似乎很能说明问题。
These are the seats where victory should mean Democrats are clearing the low bar for a House majority. (They technically need to flip three Republican seats, but the GOP’s mid-decade redistricting has effectively raised that threshold by a handful of seats.) Arizona’s 6th District: It would seem telling that GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani didn’t show up a couple weeks back when Trump was in Arizona for a rally. (GOP candidate Jay Feely, who’s running in the state’s open 1st District, wasn’t there either.)
（在该州现任议员不寻求连任的第1选区参选的共和党候选人杰伊·菲利也没有出席。）西斯科马尼所在的选区是名副其实的摇摆选区，如果民主党当晚表现出色，这个席位应该很容易拿下。
Ciscomani holds a bona-fide swing district that should be very attainable for Democrats if they’re having a good night.
艾奥瓦州第3选区：共和党众议员扎克·纳恩9月投票限制特朗普在伊朗战争问题上的权力，引发广泛关注。他所在的选区在2024年以4个百分点的优势倾向于特朗普，但民主党似乎在艾奥瓦州取得了显著进展——他们正力争翻转三个众议院选区，并赢下参议院和州长选举。
Iowa’s 3rd District: GOP Rep. Zach Nunn made big news in September by voting to limit Trump’s authority on the Iran war. He comes from a district that favored Trump by 4 points in 2024, but Democrats appear to be gaining significant ground in Iowa — competing to flip three House districts and win the Senate and gubernatorial races.
得克萨斯州第34选区：共和党将民主党众议员文森特·冈萨雷斯的选区改划为特朗普本可领先10个百分点的选区。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊把自己的职位押注在保住此类席位上，他在最近的一场竞选活动上说：“南得克萨斯将真正决定国会中的多数党归属。”但民调显示，自那以来，西语裔选民已大幅回流民主党。这意味着，如果民主党要赢得多数席位，他们确实应该守住这个席位。
Texas’ 34th District: The GOP made Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez’s district into one Trump would have won by 10 points. House Speaker Mike Johnson has staked his job on holding seats like this one, saying at a recent campaign event, “South Texas will literally decide the majority in the Congress.”But polls show Hispanic voters have swung significantly back toward Democrats since then. That means they should really hold on to this seat if they’re to win the majority.
如果民主党在这些选区获胜，他们恐怕正面临一场至少某种程度的浪潮式选举。
If Democrats are winning these seats, they’re probably looking at a wave election of at least some sort.
肯塔基州第6选区：共和党众议员安迪·巴尔为竞选参议员而让出的这个选区以15个百分点的优势倾向于特朗普，但共和党提名人拉尔夫·阿尔瓦拉多早在8月就开始明显与特朗普保持距离。这也将是首个投票结束的备受瞩目的众议院选战（投票于东部时间下午6点结束）。
Kentucky’s 6th District: This district, which GOP Rep. Andy Barr is vacating to run for Senate, favored Trump by 15 points, but Republican nominee Ralph Alvarado began significantly distancing himself from Trump back in August. This will also be the first marquee House race where polls will close (at 6 p.m. Eastern Time).
蒙大拿州第1选区：这是另一个在特朗普两位数优势选区中的无现任议员竞选，该选区已显现竞争态势一段时间了。民主党提名了那种似乎能让该选区进入竞争行列的候选人：民粹派工会领袖、前空降灭火队员萨姆·福斯塔格，他将面对共和党候选人、陆军退伍军人亚伦·弗林特。
Montana’s 1st District: This is another open-seat race in a double-digit Trump district that has looked competitive for a while. And Democrats have picked the kind of candidate who can seemingly put it in play: populist labor leader and former smokejumper Sam Forstag, who will face Republican Army veteran Aaron Flint.
宾夕法尼亚州第1选区：在这个摇摆选区，众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克——或许是众议院共和党中最杰出的温和派——多年来表现出了惊人的韧性。事实上，尽管特朗普在该选区以微弱劣势落败，他在2024年仍以13个百分点的优势获胜。但这正是在大选浪潮中往往会落败的那类现任议员。
Pennsylvania’s 1st District: In this swing district, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick — perhaps the House GOP’s preeminent moderate — has proven remarkably resilient over the years. In fact, he won by 13 points in 2024 despite Trump narrowly losing his district. But these are the kinds of incumbents who tend to lose in a wave.
赢下这些选区将使2026年成为近期最大规模的中期选举浪潮之一。
Winning these districts would make 2026 one of the bigger midterm waves in recent history.
科罗拉多州第4选区：共和党众议员劳伦·博伯特有过不少个人麻烦（参见：“甲壳虫汁”事件）。但当她在2024年选举中转战科罗拉多州东部这个深红选区时，本被认为稳操胜券。她的麻烦加上大环境，使得这个特朗普领先18个百分点的选区进入了竞争行列。
Colorado’s 4th District: GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert has had her share of personal problems (see: “Beetlejuice”). But she was supposed to be safe when she switched to a deep-red eastern Colorado district in the 2024 election. The combination of her problems and the environment means this Trump +18 district is in play.
密苏里州第2选区：共和党众议员安·瓦格纳在2022年和2024年均以两位数优势获胜，但民主党人弗雷德·韦尔曼的强力挑战让这场竞选进入了关注视野。该选区并非压倒性保守（特朗普领先8个百分点），但瓦格纳已证明是位强有力的现任议员——那种通常不指望会落败的类型。
Missouri’s 2nd District: GOP Rep. Ann Wagner won by double digits in 2022 and 2024, but a spirited challenge from Democrat Fred Wellman has put this race on the radar screen. The district is not overwhelmingly conservative at Trump +8, but Wagner’s proven a solid incumbent — the kind you don’t really expect to lose.
纽约州第21选区：去年民主党选举势头的首个重大迹象之一，是特朗普撤回了共和党众议员埃莉斯·斯特凡尼克担任联合国大使的提名，因为共和党担心在补选中失去这个特朗普领先21个百分点的选区。当时几乎无法想象，他们可能还得在大选中防守该选区，因为这种冷门在大选中远不那么常见。但斯特凡尼克将退休，共和党提名人安东尼·康斯坦蒂诺有可能落败。
New York’s 21st District: One of the first big signs of Democrats’ electoral momentum last year was when Trump withdrew GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to become United Nations ambassador because Republicans were worried about losing her Trump +21 district in a special election. It was virtually unthinkable at the time that they might also have to defend it in the general election, when such upsets aren’t nearly as common. But Stefanik is retiring, and it’s possible that Republican nominee Anthony Constantino could lose.
如果这些席位转为蓝色，周二可能将是一场史无前例的共和党惨败。
If these seats go blue, Tuesday could be a Republican drubbing of epic proportions.
堪萨斯州第2选区：如果民主党兽医唐·库弗能在这个特朗普领先20个百分点的选区击败共和党众议员德里克·施密特，那很可能是因为民主党参议员提名人亚当·汉密尔顿表现太好，他的“连带效应”把库弗拉过了线。
Kansas’ 2nd District: If Democratic veterinarian Don Coover can upset GOP Rep. Derek Schmidt in this Trump +20 district, it will probably be because Democratic Senate nominee Adam Hamilton did so well that his coattails pulled Coover across the line.
得克萨斯州第9选区：当共和党重绘该州国会选区地图、试图多赢多达五个席位时，这个特朗普本也会领先20个百分点的选区，本应是那五个里第二容易拿下的。但一些共和党外部团体已出手助选共和党人亚历克斯·米勒，因为一项民调显示竞争进入个位数差距。
Texas’ 9th District: When Republicans redrew this state’s congressional map to try and win as many as five additional seats, this district — which Trump also would have won by 20 points — was supposed to be the second-easiest of the five. But some GOP outside groups have moved to shore up Republican Alex Mealer after a poll showed a single-digit race.
怀俄明州单一选区：权威评级机构“内部选情”最近令人侧目，把这个特朗普领先46个百分点的全州空缺席位竞选，从“稳固共和党”降为仅“倾向共和党”。理由是特朗普的麻烦，以及共和党州务卿查克·格雷极具分裂性。如果民主党人丽莎·金尼能赢下它，2026年大选将载入史册。
Wyoming’s At-Large District: The handicapper Inside Elections recently turned heads by moving this open statewide race, where Trump won by 46 points, from “solid Republican” to merely “likely Republican.”It cited Trump’s problems and how divisive GOP Secretary of State Chuck Gray has been. If Democrat Lisa Kinney can pull it off, the 2026 election will be historic.