
全美各州的公投提案正在全国视野之外悄然推进——但其中一些正吸引着巨额资金投入。
Statewide ballot measures are flying under the national radar — but some are drawing big spending.
根据广告追踪公司AdImpact的数据,至少已有4亿美元用于公投提案的电视广告。39个州的145项公投提案中,既有吸引未来总统候选人关注的较量,也有来自两党双方暗钱集团的数百万美元投入。
At least $400 million has been spent on TV ads for ballot initiatives, according to data from the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. The 145 ballot measures across 39 states include fights attracting the attention of future presidential candidates and millions from dark-money groups on both sides of the aisle.
今年公投提案的焦点反映了政治话语的更广泛转变。自2022年以来,与堕胎相关的提案数量急剧下降,因为各州在罗诉韦德案被推翻后已有时间来确定各自的法律。与此同时,五个州的选民将对聚焦跨性别议题的公投提案进行表决,数量为历史之最。以下是11月选民将面临的最具重大影响的公投提案:加利福尼亚州的财富税 迄今为止,11月最昂贵、被攻击最猛烈的公投提案是加州的第40号提案,若获通过,将对该州亿万富翁征收一次性5%的税。
The focus of this year’s ballot measures reflect broader shifts in the political discourse. The number of abortion-related initiatives has dropped precipitously since 2022 as states have had time to determine their individual laws following the repeal of Roe v. Wade. At the same time, voters in five states will weigh in on ballot measures focusing on transgender issues, the most in history. Here are the most consequential ballot initiatives facing voters in November: California’s wealth tax By far the most expensive and most aggressively targeted ballot measure in November is California’s Prop 40, which if passed would levy a one-time 5% tax on the state’s billionaires.
已有令人咋舌的9200万美元用于辩论该议题的电视广告,其中大部分来自“反对”一方——尽管这与反对该提案的硅谷巨头如科技投资人彼得·蒂尔和谷歌联合创始人谢尔盖·布林若该提案通过将被迫缴纳的金额相比,仍是小巫见大巫。
An eye-watering $92 million has been spent on TV ads debating the issue, mostly on the “No” side, although that pales in comparison to what the Silicon Valley tycoons opposing the initiative like tech investor Peter Thiel and Google co-founder Sergey Brin would be forced to pay should it pass.
包括伯尼·桑德斯和罗·康纳在内的进步派领军人物支持“赞成”一方。夹在中间的是州长加文·纽森,他是2028年总统的潜在候选人,他反对该提案,尽管他试图通过提议对亿万富翁全国性增税来争取一些民粹主义信誉。本月早些时候Citrin-POLITICO的一项民调发现,该提案获得46%的支持率,未达到通过所需的多数。
Leading progressive figures including Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna are backing the “Yes” side. Caught in the middle is Gov. Gavin Newsom, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, who’s opposed the measure even as he’s tried to claim some populist credibility by proposing a national tax hike on billionaires. A Citrin-POLITICO poll earlier this month found the measure receiving 46% support, short of the majority needed to pass.
纽森和布林都在支持另一项投票提案——第42号提案,这是一个单独的问题,如果通过,将抵消第40号财富税提案。如果两项都通过,只要第42号提案获得的票数更多,它仍可能抵消第40号提案。
Newsom and Brin are both backing another ballot measure, Prop 42, a separate question that would cancel out the Prop 40 wealth tax if it passes. If both pass, Prop 42 could still cancel out Prop 40 if it receives more votes.
重新划分选区之争持续不断。马里兰州州长韦斯·摩尔正将自己塑造成一项宪法修正案的代表人物,如果该修正案通过,将为州议会绘制新选区铺平道路,从而把该州唯一的共和党众议院席位变成稳固的民主党席位。摩尔是2028年总统选举的潜在候选人,他效仿纽森的做法,纽森去年通过了一项重新划分选区的公投,该公投可能使五个众议院席位转向民主党。前总统巴拉克·奥巴马本周为“支持”运动拍摄了一则广告。
Redistricting wars continue Maryland Gov. Wes Moore is making himself the face of a constitutional amendment that, if it passes, would pave the way for the state legislature to draw new lines turning the state’s lone GOP House seat solidly blue. Moore, a potential presidential candidate in 2028, is taking a cue from Newsom, who passed a redistricting referendum last year that is likely to swing five House seats in favor of Democrats. Former President Barack Obama cut an adfor the “Yes” campaign this week.
密苏里州民主党人最近赢得了一场有争议的法律斗争,阻止共和党利用新的选区划分方案抹杀堪萨斯城地区一名由众议员伊曼纽尔·克利弗持有的民主党席位,并允许选民就该选区划分方案是否在未来选举中使用举行公投。现在,选民将决定该州未来的做法。推动公投投“反对票”的运动本月早些时候报告称筹集了600万美元,其中很大一部分得益于民主党大额捐款人,包括领英联合创始人里德·霍夫曼和伊利诺伊州州长JB·普利兹克。
Missouri Democrats recently won a contentious legal battle that barred the GOP from using a new gerrymander to erase a Kansas City-area Democratic seat held by Rep. Emanuel Cleaver and allowed voters a referendum on whether that gerrymander will be used in future elections.. Now, voters get to choose what the state does going forward. The campaign pushing “No” on the referendum reported raising $6 million earlier this month, with big help from Democratic megadonors, including LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.
跨性别权利限制进入选票。今年是多个州首次就跨性别问题提出多项投票倡议。
Transgender rights restrictions hit the ballot This year marks the first time multiple states have taken up ballot initiatives focusing on transgender issues.
科罗拉多州、密苏里州、华盛顿州、亚利桑那州和内布拉斯加州的六项倡议,构成了自2015年最高法院合法化同性婚姻以来,一年内与LGBTQ相关的投票措施中数量最多的一批。每一项措施都要求选民要么禁止对未成年人进行跨性别手术,要么限制跨性别女孩参加女子体育比赛。
The six initiatives across Colorado, Missouri, Washington, Arizona and Nebraska help make up the most LGBTQ-related ballot measures in a year since the Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriage in 2015. Each of the measures asks voters to either ban transgender surgeries for minors or restrict access to girls sports for transgender girls.
四州堕胎权措施 内华达州和弗吉尼亚州的措施将把堕胎权写入这些州的宪法,类似于过去几年在俄亥俄州、密歇根州、蒙大拿州和其他州通过的措施。
Abortion access measures in four states Measures in Nevada and Virginia would enshrine abortion access in those states’ constitutions, similar to measures that have passed over the last few years in Ohio, Michigan, Montana and other states.
爱达荷州的一项措施将推翻该州近乎完全的禁令,这是一项法定变更而非宪法变更,这意味着如果该措施获得通过,由共和党主导的州立法机构可能会(并且预计会)投票推翻它。
A measure in Idaho, which would override the state’s near-total ban, is a statutory change rather than a constitutional one, meaning the GOP-dominated state legislature could (and is expected to) vote to override it if it passes.
密苏里州则采取了社会保守派的组合拳:一项提议旨在推翻选民在2024年批准的堕胎权宪法修正案,并恢复该手术的近乎完全禁令,同时还将禁止对未成年人进行性别过渡手术。双方的倡导团体都在向这些倡议投入数百万美元,堕胎权团体在电视广告上花费了2250万美元,反堕胎团体花费了870万美元,其中大部分资金都花在了密苏里州。
Missouri has a social conservative combo: a proposition to overturn the abortion-rights constitutional amendment that voters approved in 2024 and reinstate a near-total ban on the procedure that would also prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. Advocacy groups on both sides are pouring millions into the initiatives, with abortion rights groups spending $22.5 million and anti-abortion groups spending $8.7 million on TV ads, with most of that money being spent in Missouri.
投票权相关投票 十几个选票措施将影响未来选举的管理规则。在七个州,选民可能会批准投票需要有效身份证件的要求。六个州将让选民有机会明确规定州法律,只有美国公民才能在该州投票。马萨诸塞州选民将就是否建立一个类似加州的“前两名”无党派初选制度进行投票,而阿拉斯加选民将决定该州是否结束其“前四名”初选和排序复选制投票法,转而采用传统的党派初选和简单多数制计票方式。
Voting on voting Over a dozen ballot measures will weigh election administration rules for future elections. In seven states,voters could approve requirements for valid ID to vote. Six states will give voters the chance to explicitly codify in state law that only U.S. citizens can vote in the state. Massachusetts voters will weigh in on whether to establish a top-two nonpartisan primary system, like California has, while Alaska voters will decide if the state will end its top-four primary and ranked-choice voting laws in favor of traditional party primaries and first-past-the-post vote counting.