“美股七雄”不再作为一个整体同步交易，这要求投资者在挑选市场中最大的股票时更加有辨别力，而不是把它们视为一笔单一交易。
The "Magnificent Seven" doesn't trade as a monolith anymore, challenging investors to be more discerning when picking through the market's biggest stocks rather than viewing them as a single trade.
CNBC计算了“美股七雄”——包括Alphabet、亚马逊、苹果、Meta Platforms、微软、英伟达和特斯拉——之间全部21组不同股票两两组合的60日滚动日收益率相关性。
CNBC calculated the rolling 60-day correlation of daily returns for each of the 21 unique pairs among the Magnificent Seven — which comprises Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.
这些相关性的平均值近期降至十多年来的最低水平，表明该群体在交易中不像历史上那样像一个紧密的整体。这标志着这个因规模和对比大盘的影响力而经常被一起讨论的群体出现了转变。
The average of those correlations recently fell to its lowest level in more than a decade, suggesting the group is trading less like a cohesive block than it has historically. This marks a departure for a group that's often discussed together because of its size and influence over the broader market.
D.A. Davidson分析师吉尔·卢里亚表示，这些公司“对AI的敞口各不相同”。他补充说：“这要求投资者在考虑想持有哪些大型超大盘股时采取更加精细化的方法，而不是不加区分地整体持有。”
The companies "all have different exposures to AI," said Gil Luria, analyst at D.A. Davidson. "This requires a much more granular approach to which of the largest mega-caps an investor wants to own as opposed to just owning them wholesale," he added.
这种分化已导致该群体整体跑输大盘。Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF（MAGS）今年以来上涨7%，而标普500指数上涨12%。特斯拉和Meta是该群体中2026年下跌的两只股票，而英伟达和苹果是仅有的两只跑赢标普500指数的股票。
The dislocation has led the group as a whole to lag the broader market. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) is up 7% year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained 12%. Tesla and Meta are the two names in the cohort down in 2026, while Nvidia and Apple are the only ones outperforming the S&P 500.
微软和Alphabet将于周三收盘后公布业绩。亚马逊将于周四收盘后发布财报。
Microsoft and Alphabet report results after the bell Wednesday. Amazon will post earnings after the close on Thursday.
Roundhill Investments的ETF策略师托马斯·迪法齐奥表示，“美股七雄”之间日益加剧的分化反映出投资者更加关注各家公司的“独立基本面增长驱动因素”。“如果把它们放在AI赢家和输家的排行榜上，它们的成功程度各不相同。”他补充说，“投资者正关注微观因素”，例如公司特有的新闻，这些新闻可以预示该企业能否在AI世界中蓬勃发展。
The growing divergence among the Magnificent Seven reflects investors' deeper focus on companies' "independent fundamental growth drivers," said Thomas DiFazio, ETF strategist at Roundhill Investments. "They have varying levels of success, when you put them in the totem pole of AI winners and losers." He added that "investors are focusing on the micro factors," such as company-specific news that can signal whether the business can flourish in the AI world.
对微软而言，市场关注的是Azure的云业务增长。对Meta而言，市场评估的是其消费级AI应用的潜力。苹果的吸引力在于其设备和服务。与此同时，Alphabet的成功则与其谷歌云业务、AI模型Gemini以及在搜索领域的领先地位紧密相连。亚马逊云业务的增长同样备受关注，而市场的核心则在于评估英伟达芯片需求的持久性。对特斯拉来说，重点已不在于电动汽车，而更多在于其向AI、机器人和自动驾驶出租车（可能还有与SpaceX的合并）的转型。
For Microsoft, the market is watching Azure's cloud growth. For Meta, it's assessing the potential of its consumer AI applications. Apple's appeal is with its devices and services. Meanwhile, Alphabet's success is tied to its Google Cloud business, its AI model Gemini and its leadership in Search. Close eyes are also on Amazon's cloud business growth, while the market is centered on evaluating the durability of demand for Nvidia's chips. For Tesla, it's less about electric vehicles and more about its pivot to AI, robotics and robotaxis —potentially in a merger with SpaceX.
“这些仍然是最值得持有的股票，但它们开始出现分化，各自走向不同的方向，”Freedom Capital Markets首席市场策略师杰伊·伍兹表示。
"These are the best stocks to still be in, but they're starting to kind of separate and go in their own direction," said Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets.
“七巨头”内部的分化并不指向基本面恶化。总体而言，华尔街对每只个股仍普遍看多。根据LSEG的数据，苹果有58%的分析师给予买入或强力买入评级。亚马逊这一比例高达97%；Alphabet为92%；微软为97%；Meta为89%；英伟达为97%；特斯拉为50%。苹果的情况说明了投资者对AI敞口的评估已发生怎样的转变。
The dispersion within the Magnificent Seven doesn't point to deteriorating fundamentals. Overall, Wall Street remains largely bullish on each individual stock. For Apple, 58% of analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock, according to LSEG. That number is a whopping 97% for Amazon; 92% for Alphabet; 97% on Microsoft; 89% on Meta; 97% on Nvidia; and 50% on Tesla. Apple illustrates how investors' assessment of AI exposure has shifted.
这家iPhone制造商曾因未在AI军备竞赛中投入高额资本支出而受到惩罚，如今却因此获得回报。2025年，苹果是“七巨头”中表现第二差的股票，回报率为8.9%。亚马逊排名垫底，2025年上涨5.2%。Alphabet表现最佳，回报率达65.8%。然而在2026年，苹果以28%的涨幅领跑“七巨头”。| 股票代码 | 公司 | 年初至今表现（%） | | GOOGL | Alphabet | 2.2 | | AMZN | 亚马逊 | 8.8 | | AAPL | 苹果 | 26.8 | | META | Meta平台 | -5.2 | | MSFT | 微软 | 10.7 | | NVDA | 英伟达 | 17.3 | | TSLA | 特斯拉 | -10.8 |伍兹表示：“过去两年因缺乏人工智能战略而受到批评最多的那只股票，如今成了这一群体中的领跑者，那就是苹果。”
The iPhone maker, which had been punished for not spending high levels of capital expenditures in the AI arms race, is now being rewarded for it. In 2025, Apple was the second worst-performing Magnificent Seven name, returning 8.9%. Amazon was in last place, gaining 5.2% in 2025. Alphabet was the best performer, delivering 65.8%. In 2026, however, Apple's 28% gain leads the Mag-7 pack. | Ticker | Company | Year-to-date performance (%) | | GOOGL | Alphabet | 2.2 | | AMZN | Amazon | 8.8 | | AAPL | Apple | 26.8 | | META | Meta Platforms | -5.2 | | MSFT | Microsoft | 10.7 | | NVDA | Nvidia | 17.3 | | TSLA | Tesla | -10.8 | "The one stock that got criticized the most over the last two years about not having an AI strategy is now the leader of this cohort, and that is Apple," Woods said.
伍兹解释说：“他们继续在自己最擅长的领域发力，也就是产品和应用商店。”在他看来，苹果是“这场竞赛中稳步前进的乌龟”。D.A.戴维森公司的卢里亚将苹果描述为“躲避人工智能交易的避风港”，而伍兹则称该公司为“技术公用事业”和“消费必需品”，因为其设备和服务已融入日常生活。
"They're continuing to hit on what they do best, which is the products and the App Store," Woods explained. To him, Apple is the "consistent tortoise of this race." D.A. Davidson's Luria described Apple as "the place to hide from the AI trade," while Woods referred to the company as a "technology utility" and a "consumer staple" since its devices and services are embedded into everyday life.
英伟达近期走势震荡，原因是市场对芯片需求持久性的担忧，以及投资者对资本支出回落的焦虑。
Nvidia has been volatile lately amid concerns about the durability of chip demand and investor anxiety over a pullback in capex spending.
作为半导体行业——乃至全球——市值最大的股票，该股难免会经历剧烈的价格波动。该股于10月6日见顶，但自那以来已下跌超过13%。
As the biggest stock in the semiconductor sector – and the world – the stock is bound to be subject to massive price swings. The stock peaked on Oct. 6 but since then, shares have fallen by over 13%.
尽管如此，伍兹表示其估值“相对而言且从历史角度看都算便宜”。目前，该股正处于“消化阶段”。他看好英伟达的格局，并指出芯片需求将持续存在。
Still, Woods said its valuation is "relatively [and] historically cheap." Right now, the stock is in a "digestion phase." He favors Nvidia's setup, pointing to continued demand for chips.
据伍兹称，Alphabet的图表在经历3月至5月的上涨后已走弱，这使得周三晚间该公司公布第三季度财报时，业绩和指引将更加受到重视。
Alphabet's chart has weakened following its run from March to May, according to Woods, putting greater emphasis on earnings and guidance come Wednesday evening when the company reports its third quarter earnings.
尽管其搜索业务仍是强项，但伍兹正在关注来自其他人工智能平台的竞争，以及该股能否获得上行动能。
While its search business remains a strength, Woods is watching competition from other AI platforms and whether the stock can gain upward momentum.
伍兹表示，亚马逊一直“缓慢而稳定”，但该股的趋势并不连贯。“它的表现不算差，也不算好，就那样。”对该公司来说，关键在于其云计算业务亚马逊云服务（AWS），该业务贡献了其大部分利润。第二季度，亚马逊云业务收入同比增长37%。尽管增长稳健，但仍落后于Azure上一季度43%的同比增速，以及谷歌云上一季度82%的同比增幅。
Amazon has been "slow and steady," but the stock's trend hasn't been consistent, said Woods. "It's not doing poorly; it's not doing great. It's just there." The key for the company is its cloud computing business, Amazon Web Services, which deliver a majority of its profits. Revenue from Amazon's cloud segment grew 37% year over year in the second quarter. While growth is solid, it lagged Azure's 43% year over year growth last quarter and Google Cloud, which jumped 82% year over year last quarter.
Meta股价9月因市场对其新款个人AI助手Muse的兴奋情绪而大涨，此前该应用在App Store的下载量异常火爆。
Meta stock surged in September on excitement over its new personal AI assistant Muse after App Store downloads were off the charts.
Roundhill的迪法齐奥指出，投资者密切关注Muse的采用情况将如何转化为收入和利润，并认为这款新的消费级应用可能有助于该股走势。
Roundhill's DiFazio noted how investors are keen on how Muse adoption could translate into revenue and profits and credited the new consumer application with potentially helping the stock's trajectory.
但上周，这家Facebook和Instagram的母公司在第三季度财报中报告自由现金流为负，同时上调了全年资本支出的下限，此后该股转跌，原因是投资者担忧其全部资本支出带来可观回报的时间可能比预期更远。
But after the Facebook and Instagram parent reported negative free cash flow while raising the floor of its full-year capital expenditures in its third quarter earnings last week, the stock turned negative over concerns that attracrtive returns on all its capex could be further away.
伍兹表示，微软已从早先关于AI将颠覆其软件业务的担忧中恢复过来，但现在面临一项技术性考验。“认为AI将颠覆这一业务的担忧显然被夸大了，”伍兹说。
Microsoft has recovered from earlier concerns about AI disrupting its software business, but now faces a technical test, according to Woods. "The fears that AI was going to disrupt this thought were definitely overblown," Woods said.
他将530至550美元区间认定为阻力位，并表示抛售压力可能威胁进一步上涨。迪法齐奥认为Azure是投资者正在关注的增长引擎。
He identified the $530-$550 range as resistance and said that selling pressure could potentially threaten further gains. DiFazio identified Azure as the growth driver investors are watching.
定于周三晚间发布的即将到来的财报和业绩指引，将有助于判断该股能否突破上述区间。
Upcoming earnings and guidance, set to be delivered on Wednesday evening, can help determine whether the stock can break above that range.
在谈到“科技七巨头”股票时，伍兹表示，特斯拉“已被远远甩在后面”。他说，特斯拉的投资逻辑日益依赖于电动汽车以外的机会，包括机器人技术。
When discussing Magnificent Seven stocks, Tesla "has been left in the dust," Woods said. Tesla's investment case increasingly rests on opportunities beyond electric cars, including robotics, he said.
D.A. Davidson的Luria也对其入选“七巨头”持怀疑态度，认为其估值带有“马斯克溢价”。
D.A. Davidson's Luria is also skeptical of its inclusion in the Magnificent Seven, arguing its valuation carries an "Elon premium."