距离11月3日美国中期选举不足一周，唐纳德·特朗普总统的支持率仍徘徊在其第二任期的最低水平附近，而民主党在国会选举偏好民调中领先共和党。
Less than a week before the November 3 US midterm elections, President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains near its lowest level of his second term, while Democrats hold a lead over Republicans in the congressional preference polls.
10月26日完成的一项路透社/益普索民调显示，特朗普的支持率为32%，比前一周民调的创纪录低点上升了一个百分点。《福布斯》引用的其他民调也显示特朗普的支持率相对疲软，尽管不同民调和受访选民群体的估算结果有所差异。
A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on October 26 put at 32%, up one percentage point from a record low in the previous week’s survey. Other polls cited by Forbes also show relatively weak approval ratings for Trump, although estimates vary by survey and the group of voters questioned.
民调还指向民主党在通用国会选票上占据优势，而生活成本仍是选民的一大担忧。
The polling also points to an advantage for Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, while the cost of living remains a major concern for voters.
11月3日的选举将决定共和党能否保持对众议院和参议院的控制权，结果很可能会塑造特朗普任期最后两年的立法议程。
The November 3 elections will determine whether Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, with the outcome likely to shape Trump’s legislative agenda for the final two years of his term.
路透社/益普索民调：支持率为32% 特朗普的支持率较前一周的创纪录低点略有回升，但最新的路透社/益普索调查仍将其置于32%。
Reuters/Ipsos poll: approval at 32% Trump’s approval rating recovered slightly from the previous week’s record low, but the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey still placed it at 32%.
美国中期选举 · 11月3日 最新民调显示什么 特朗普的支持率、国会角逐及选民的生活成本担忧，尽在一项民调中。
US midterms · Nov 3 What the latest polls say Trump’s approval, the race for Congress and voters’ cost-of-living worries, in one poll.
路透社/益普索 · 2026年10月26日完成的在线民调 1 · 总统支持率 特朗普支持率 支持 0%100% 较上周创纪录的31%低点上升1个百分点 认可特朗普工作表现的美国成年人比例。
Reuters/Ipsos · online poll completed October 26, 2026 1 · Presidential approval Trump approval approve 0%100% Up 1 point from last week’s record low of 31% Share of US adults who approve of Trump’s job performance.
2 · 生活成本 走向错误方向 每100名选民中有73人认为生活成本正朝错误方向发展 3 · 通用选票 登记选民 民主党 共和党 民主党 +11 11% 不清楚。计入倾向未定选民的倾向后，为民主党50%，共和党41% 差距比10月19日民调缩小1个百分点。
2 · Cost of living Heading the wrong way 73 in every 100 voters say the cost of living is heading in the wrong direction 3 · Generic ballot Registered voters Democrats Republicans Democrats +11 11% don’t know. Counting undecided voters’ leanings, it is 50% Democrats, 41% Republicans The gap is one point tighter than the Oct 19 poll.
可能投票者 在11月3日最有可能投票的选民。单独列示，区别于登记选民数据。
Likely voters Voters who appeared most likely to vote on November 3. Shown separately from the registered-voter figures.
在该民调中，“非常热衷”于中期选举的选民占比为：民主党 46%，共和党 30%。在经济应对方面表现更好的政党：民主党 37%。本次民调对象为 1,679 名美国成年人，其中包括 1,280 名登记选民，采用网络方式实施。误差范围：针对所有成年人约为 2 个百分点，针对登记选民约为 3 个百分点。“通用选票”问题询问选民将支持哪个党派进入国会。
Also in the poll“Very enthusiastic” about the midterms 46% Democrats 30% Republicans Party with the better approach on the economy 37% Democrats Poll of 1,679 US adults, including 1,280 registered voters, conducted online. Margin of error: about 2 points for all adults, 3 points for registered voters. The generic ballot asks which party voters would back for Congress.
自 2 月伊朗袭击行动开始以来，通胀已有所上升，推高了汽油价格。来源：路透社/益普索民调于 2026 年 10 月 26 日完成；路透社报道，日期为 2026 年 10 月 26 日至 27 日。
Inflation has risen since the Iran strikes began in February, pushing up gasoline prices. Source: Reuters/Ipsos poll completed October 26, 2026; Reuters report, Oct 26–27, 2026.
Express InfoGenIE 由 Aniruddha Dhar 创建 《福布斯》报道称，在 10 月 19 日的民调中，特朗普的支持率已降至 31%，而不支持率为 66%。2026 年美国中期选举：如果民主党控制国会会怎样？
Express InfoGenIE Created by Aniruddha Dhar Forbes reported that Trump’s approval rating in the October 19 survey had fallen to 31%, while his disapproval rating stood at 66%. US midterms 2026: What happens if Democrats take control of Congress?
路透社称，共和党目前正努力维持其在两院的多数席位。路透社补充称，失去任一议院的控制权，都可能使特朗普在其任期最后两年的计划更难通过。
Reuters says Republicans are now working to hold on to their majorities in both chambers. Losing either one, it adds, could make Trump’s plans harder to pass in the final two years of his term.
民主党在国会竞选中领先 路透社报道称，当被问及将选择哪个党派进入国会时，登记选民中支持民主党的占 47%，支持共和党的占 36%。这被称为“通用选票”问题。约 11% 的受访者表示不知道会投给哪个党派。
Democrats lead the race for Congress Reuters reports that registered voters favoured Democrats over Republicans by 47% to 36% when asked which party they would pick for Congress. This is known as a “generic ballot” question. About 11% said they did not know how they would vote.
这一 11 个百分点的领先优势比 10 月 19 日完成的民调窄了 1 个百分点。当询问未决定的受访者倾向哪个党派时，民主党以 50% 对 41% 领先。在可能投票者中，民主党的优势为 53% 对 44%。
The 11-point lead was one percentage point narrower than in the poll completed on October 19. When undecided respondents were asked which party they leaned towards, Democrats led 50% to 41%. Among likely voters, the Democratic advantage was 53% to 44%.
2026 年美国中期选举：印裔美国捐赠者支持特朗普的共和党，选民倾向民主党 路透社还发现，民主党选民更热衷于投票。46% 的民主党人表示对中期选举“非常热衷”，而共和党人这一比例为 30%。
US midterms 2026: Indian-American donors back Trump’s Republicans, voters lean democratic Reuters also found that Democrats are more keen to vote. Some 46% of Democrats said they were very enthusiastic about the midterms, against 30% of Republicans.
路透社指出，此类全国性民调反映公众情绪，但无法捕捉各州和各选区的具体竞争态势。共和党在这些选战中拥有一些内在优势。路透社引述的分析人士认为，民主党赢得众议院的机会很大，但在参议院的前景则更为艰难。
Reuters points out that national polls like this show public mood but do not capture contests in each state and district. Republicans hold some built-in advantages in those races. Analysts quoted by Reuters see a good chance of Democrats winning the House, but a harder path in the Senate.
生活成本与伊朗战争拖累选民情绪 路透社称，国会争夺战在很大程度上已演变为围绕物价的较量。自特朗普于2月下令对伊朗实施军事打击以来，通胀有所上升，推高了汽油价格。在该民调中，73%的选民表示他们的生活成本正朝着错误的方向发展。
Cost of living and the Iran war weigh on voters Reuters says the fight for Congress has turned largely on prices. Inflation has risen since Trump ordered military strikes on Iran in February, which pushed up petrol prices. In the poll, 73% of voters said their cost of living was heading in the wrong direction.
战争爆发前，路透社/益普索民调显示，选民更信任共和党而非民主党来管理经济。这一局面已发生改变。在最新民调中，37%的人认为民主党有更好的经济应对方案，而33%的人选择共和党。
Before the war, Reuters/Ipsos polls showed voters trusted Republicans more than Democrats to run the economy. That has changed. In the latest poll, 37% said Democrats have the better approach to the economy, while 33% picked Republicans.
2026年美国中期选举：结果如何影响H-1B签证、印度人的绿卡 《福布斯》引述的其他民调也指向对特朗普经济表现的不满。美联社-NORC于9月24日至28日进行的民调发现，26%的受访者认可他对经济的处理，17%认可他对生活成本的处理。另一项CNBC调查将他的经济支持率定在34%，并发现63%的受访者对经济持悲观态度，其中包括35%的共和党人。
US midterms 2026: How results could affect H-1B visas, green cards for Indians Other surveys cited by Forbes also point to dissatisfaction with Trump’s economic record. An Associated Press-NORC poll conducted from September 24 to 28 found that 26% approved of his handling of the economy and 17% approved of his handling of the cost of living. A separate CNBC survey put his economic approval rating at 34% and found that 63% of respondents were pessimistic about the economy, including 35% of Republicans.
其他民调显示同一趋势 另一项由美国国家公共电台（NPR）/PBS新闻/马里斯特学院于10月27日发布的民调显示，特朗普的支持率为40%，不支持率为59%。在国会党派倾向问题上，民主党以52%对44%领先共和党。当被问及特朗普如何影响他们的投票时，44%的人表示主要是为了反对他而投票，21%表示是为了支持他而投票，35%表示他对他们的决定影响不大。
Other polls show the same trend A separate NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released on October 27 put Trump’s approval rating at 40% and his disapproval rating at 59%. In the congressional preference question, Democrats led Republicans 52% to 44%. Asked how Trump affected their vote, 44% said they were mainly voting against him, 21% said they were voting for him, and 35% said he had little influence on their decision.