10月28日 - 在人工智能巨头Anthropic提交首次公开募股（IPO）申请文件后，预测市场上出现了针对Anthropic合约的大规模交易，与此同时，散户股票交易者正等待可能在下个月敲响的正式开市钟声。
Oct 28 - Prediction markets are seeing massive trades for Anthropic contracts after the AI giant's IPO filing, even as retail stock traders await the official opening bell likely next month.
预测市场中“是”或“否”的二元押注正在影响散户投资者对高关注度IPO的投机方式，使交易者无需购买股票即可对收盘价、上市交易所等方面进行押注。
The binary "yes" or "no" bets in prediction markets are influencing the way retail investors speculate on high-profile IPOs, allowing traders to wager on aspects such as the closing prices and its listing venue without the need to buy shares.
财富管理和财务咨询公司Cerity Partners合伙人Michael Ashley Schulman表示：“预测市场对Anthropic IPO的关注，在金融层面上相当于人们在新款iPhone发布前就在苹果专卖店外排队。”
"Prediction market interest in Anthropic's IPO is the financial equivalent of people lining up outside the Apple Store before a new iPhone release," said Michael Ashley Schulman, a partner at wealth management and financial advisory firm Cerity Partners.
本周早些时候，Anthropic通过披露其IPO申请文件，迈出了上市的关键一步。据路透社报道，此次上市可能将这家Claude模型背后的AI实验室估值在1.5万亿美元至2万亿美元之间。
Earlier this week, Anthropic took a major step toward going public by unveiling its IPO filing. The listing could value the AI lab behind the Claude models at between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, Reuters has reported.
在Polymarket上，已出现十多个围绕该IPO的市场，交易者正在对其融资规模、上市交易所和首秀估值下注。
On Polymarket, more than a dozen markets have sprung up around the IPO, where traders are placing bets on its fundraising haul, listing exchange and debut valuation.
竞争对手Kalshi也吸引了从哪家银行将牵头承销到指数提供商将把Anthropic归入哪个板块指数等各类押注。合计来看，这些市场已吸引数千万美元的交易量。
Rival Kalshi is also drawing bets on everything from which bank will lead the offering to which sector index providers will classify Anthropic in. Combined, the markets have attracted tens of millions of dollars in volume.
Schulman表示：“这是强劲兴趣的健康信号，所下的赌注可能有助于市场锁定其最终的公开市场开盘价。”
"It is a healthy sign of robust interest and the wagers placed may help the market zero in on its eventual public market opening price," said Schulman.
预测市场允许用户买卖与现实事件结果挂钩的合约，价格随交易者对不同结果概率的权衡而波动。
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of real-life events, with prices fluctuating as traders weigh the odds of the different outcomes.
路透社上月报道，这些平台曾主要与政治和经济数据相关，如今正越来越多地进军传统华尔街领域，提供数万个关于股价波动、公司数据及其他常驱动股价的企业事件的市场。
Once largely tied to politics and economic data, the platforms are increasingly moving into traditional Wall Street turf, offering tens of thousands of markets on stock moves, company data and other corporate events that often drive shares, Reuters reported last month.
然而，IPO 投资长期以来一直由资金雄厚的机构投资者主导。尽管近年来散户参与度有所扩大，包括围绕埃隆·马斯克旗下 SpaceX 的上市，但发行方仍仅将极小部分发行份额分配给个人投资者。
IPO investing, however, has long been dominated by deep-pocketed institutional investors. Although retail participation has expanded in recent years, including around Elon Musk's SpaceX listing, issuers still allocate only a small portion of offerings to individual investors.
Interactive Brokers 首席策略师 Steve Sosnick 表示：“Anthropic 的 IPO 将成为检验个人和机构投资者对 AI 食欲的关键试金石。”
"The Anthropic IPO is going to be a crucial litmus test about both individual and institutional investors' appetite for AI," said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.
截至 10 月 28 日美国东部时间上午 9:30（格林威治标准时间 13:30），Polymarket 上关于 Anthropic IPO 时间的合约交易量已达 600 万美元。另一个关于该 AI 公司收盘市值的市场吸引了约 300 万美元。
The Polymarket contract on the timing of Anthropic's IPO had drawn $6 million in trading volume as of 9:30 a.m. ET (1330 GMT) on October 28. A separate market on the AI company's closing market capitalization had attracted about $3 million.
Sosnick 表示：“预测市场显然正成为许多投资者进行金融风险管理和投机的重要组成部分。”
"Prediction markets are clearly becoming an integral part of many investors' approach to financial risk management and speculation," Sosnick said.