独家：知情人士向Semafor透露，Kalshi已聘请前总统巴拉克·奥巴马的高级顾问之一、政治策略师埃里克·舒尔茨——这是企业预期民主党将在周二中期选举中获胜的最新迹象。
The Scoop Kalshi has hired one of former President Barack Obama’s top advisers, political strategist Eric Schultz, a person familiar with the matter told Semafor — the latest sign of companies anticipating Democratic victories in Tuesday’s midterms.
另一位知情人士称，舒尔茨签署了一份短期合同，担任Kalshi的外部顾问。此次聘用之际，Kalshi用户预测民主党赢得众议院多数的概率为91%，赢得参议院多数的概率为65%。
Schultz signed a short-term contract to serve as an out-of-house adviser to Kalshi, a second person familiar with the matter said. His hiring comes as Kalshi users forecast a 91% chance that Democrats win a majority in the House and a 65% chance of a Democratic Senate majority.
无论民主党表现如何，预测市场在下一届国会都可能面临更严格的审视，因为两党议员都对特朗普政府宽松的监管态度表示怀疑。
No matter how well Democrats perform, prediction markets may find themselves facing tougher scrutiny in the next Congress, since lawmakers in both parties have expressed skepticism of the Trump administration’s favorable regulatory approach.
Kalshi未予置评。舒尔茨自奥巴马卸任以来一直经营自己的咨询公司，他未回应置评请求。
Kalshi did not provide a comment. Schultz, who has maintained his own consulting firm since Obama left office, did not return a request for comment.
舒尔茨曾担任奥巴马的白宫副新闻秘书，是该公司今年聘请的几位民主党人之一。该公司还聘请了另一位奥巴马助手斯蒂芬妮·卡特，以及前拜登政府官员约翰·比沃纳。
Schultz, who previously served as Obama’s deputy White House press secretary, is one of several Democrats the firm has brought on this year. It has also tapped another Obama aide, Stephanie Cutter, as well as former Biden administration official John Bivona.
邻近行业的企业也在囤积民主党游说人士——有时还在逐步淘汰共和党人手——为2027年做准备。资深共和党顾问乔尔·卡普兰最近宣布卸任Meta全球政策主管，而OpenAI最近聘请了参议院民主党领袖的女儿杰西卡·舒默，负责东北部事务。
Businesses in adjacent industries are also stockpiling Democratic lobbyists — and occasionally phasing out Republican hands — in preparation for 2027. Veteran GOP adviser Joel Kaplan recently announced his departure as Meta’s global policy chief, while OpenAI recently hired Jessica Schumer, daughter of the Senate Democratic leader, to focus on the Northeast.
卡尔希在民主党方面的人脉也延伸到了其法律团队：曾说服最高法院推翻唐纳德·特朗普总统关税政策的律师尼尔·卡蒂亚尔，正代表这家预测市场公司参与针对各州和部落的法律斗争。由卡尔希支持的预测市场联盟由拜登政府的副总检察长伊丽莎白·普雷洛加代表，并由前众议院民主党人、纽约州众议员肖恩·帕特里克·马洛尼领导。
Kalshi’s Democratic firepower extends to its legal team: Neal Katyal, the attorney who convinced the Supreme Court to strike down President Donald Trump’s tariffs, is representing the prediction market in its legal battle against states and tribes. The Kalshi-backed Coalition for Prediction Markets is represented by the Biden administration’s solicitor general, Elizabeth Prelogar, and helmed by a former House Democrat, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney of New York.
如果民主党人选择深挖特朗普政府与预测市场的关系，该行业的一些新聘人员明年可能会被重新拉回政治圈。马洛尼曾两次投票弹劾特朗普，当时他呼吁卡尔希和Polymarket投资者小唐纳德·特朗普到国会作证。
Some of the industry’s new hires could get pulled back into politics next year if Democrats choose to dig into the Trump administration’s involvement with prediction markets. Maloney, who twice voted to impeach Trump, at the time called for Kalshi and Polymarket investor Donald Trump Jr. to testify before Congress.
塞马福当时报道称，卡普兰于2025年初被选为全球政策主管，这让Meta“在共和党主导的华盛顿处于有利位置”。
Notable Kaplan’s selection as global policy chief in early 2025 left Meta “well-placed for a Republican-dominated Washington,” Semafor reported at the time.
特朗普的最高预测市场监管官员告诉塞马福，他正在考虑对那些试图监管该行业的州采取进一步法律行动。
Trump’s top prediction market regulatortold Semafor that he’s weighing further legal action against states that try to regulate the industry.