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美联储的沃什宣布未来FOMC会议将有所变化Fed's Warsh announces changes in how future FOMC meetings will go

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纽约,10月28日——美联储主席凯文·沃什周三表示,央行将从明年开始,在其八次定期政策会议中预留一次,并在2028年预留两次,专门用于权衡该机构面临的重大问题,而不利用这些会议讨论货币政策调整。

NEW YORK, Oct 28 - Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said on Wednesday the central bank will begin setting aside one of its eight regularly scheduled policy meetings next year and two in 2028 to weigh major issues facing the institution and will not use them to consider changes in monetary policy.

沃什在新闻发布会上说:“我们认为,每年八次会议是联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的合适数量,但在2027年,其中一次会议将专门聚焦于广泛的货币政策战略,预计既不进行联邦基金利率投票,也不发布政策声明。”

“We believe eight meetings per year is the right number for the (Federal Open Market Committee), but in 2027, one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy, with neither a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement anticipated,” Warsh said at a press conference.

“其余会议将是常规的FOMC政策制定会议,我预计2028年我们将有两次会议专门用于战略讨论,六次……用于制定政策。”沃什说。

“The rest will be regular FOMC policy setting meetings, and I expect that in 2028 we'll have two meetings dedicated to discussions of strategy and six ... for setting policy.”

“制定正确的政策涉及在及时、定期且信息丰富的间隔内评估近期事态发展,”这位美联储领导人说。

“Getting policy right involves assessing near-term developments at timely, regular and information-rich intervals,” Warsh said.

“但同样重要的是,我们作为一个思想多元的群体,预留时间和空间进行战略性审议,重新思考重大问题,着眼于更长的时间跨度,聚焦于——正如我所说的——小数点左侧的问题,”这位美联储领导人说。

“But it's equally important we reserve time and space as an intellectually diverse group for strategic deliberations, for thinking anew about big questions, looking out over longer time horizons, focusing, as I say, on the left side of the decimal point,” the Fed leader said.

美联储利用会议日历方式的这一转变,可能会削弱其应对经济快速变化的能力,尽管央行保留在FOMC会议之外调整货币政策的能力,多年来曾间歇性行使这一权力,最近一次是在2020年初新冠疫情暴发时。这些新会议将如何影响美联储其他政策审议流程尚不清楚。

The shift in how the Fed will use its calendar may reduce its ability to respond to fast-moving changes in the economy, though the central bank retains the ability to change monetary policy outside of FOMC meetings, which it has done intermittently through the years, most recently in early 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold. It's unclear how these new meetings will affect other Fed policy review processes.

这是沃什改革货币政策实施及其对外沟通方式的最新一步。这位美联储领导人不提供所谓的前瞻性指引,也不向央行的季度预测提交个人预测。

It is the latest step in Warsh’s overhaul of monetary policy conduct and how it is communicated to the public. The Fed leader does not give so-called forward guidance on the outlook and does not submit personal forecasts to the central bank’s quarterly projections.

沃什于5月成为美联储主席,他还监督了美联储在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议结束后发布的声明显著缩短,并缩减了会后新闻发布会的时长。

Warsh, who became Fed chair in May, has also overseen a notable shortening in the statement the central bank releases at the end of FOMC meetings, and has been truncating the length of press conferences after the FOMC meetings.

记者在新闻发布会上询问沃什,在专门进行深度政策探讨的FOMC会议上,可能会披露何种信息,并暗示该问题仍在考量之中。

Reporters asked Warsh at the press conference what sort of disclosure might emerge from FOMC meetings devoted to deeper policy dives, and suggested the issue was still under consideration.

这位美联储领导人表示,“目前尚不明显”美联储将在这些会议后发布何种表述。“关于会议新形式的决定是相对较新的”,“随着我们掌握该形式的细节……我们将准备好与你们分享。”虽然沃什未就哪些FOMC会议将不再进行政策行动提供指引,但预测机构Inflation Insights总裁奥马尔·谢里夫表示,他认为明年10月的会议将是首个不进行利率审议的会议,因为该会议处于两个包含季度预测的会议之间。

The Fed leader said “it’s not obvious” what the Fed will say after these meetings. “The decision on the new format for the meetings is relatively new” and “as we get details of that … we'll be prepared to share them with you.”While Warsh offered no guidance about which FOMC meetings would be taken off the table for policy action, Omair Sharif, president of forecasting firm Inflation Insights, said he believed next year’s October meeting will be the first with no rate deliberations, given that it falls between two meetings that include quarterly forecasts.

谢里夫在给客户的备忘录中表示:“这将意味着任何政策调整之间将有12周的间隔,但这也意味着,根据2027年的发布日程,他们将拥有两组通胀报告等数据,而不是仅有一组。”

“That would mean a 12-week gap between any policy changes, but it would also mean they would have two sets of inflation reports, among other data, given the 2027 release schedule as opposed to just one,” Sharif told clients in a note.

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