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美联储利率决议与沃什新闻发布会五大要点Here are five key takeaways from the Fed rate decision and Warsh news conference

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美联储周三投票决定维持基准利率不变 在随后的新闻发布会上,美联储主席凯文·沃什透露了他对美国经济现状的一些看法,以及这如何影响货币政策。但对于美联储观察人士来说,大新闻可能是沃什披露的一些即将实施的程序性变化。以下是五大要点:毫无意外 市场普遍预期美联储会维持利率不变,结果也确实如此。在解释决定时,联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)强调了耐心的态度,称:“更多信息的积累将有助于委员会确定适当的政策立场,以确保通胀及时回归委员会 2% 的目标。”

Federal Reserve voted Wednesday to hold its benchmark interest rate steady At the press conference that followed, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh disclosed some of his thinking about where the U.S. economy stands, and how that affects monetary policy. But for Fed wonks, the big news may have been Warsh's disclosure of some procedural changes ahead. Here are five key takeaways: No surprises Markets had been widely expecting the Fed to hold, and it did just that. In explaining its decision, the Federal Open Market Committee emphasized a patient approach saying, "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal."

倒是有一个意外 如果下午有什么令人扬眉的时刻,那就是沃什披露了 FOMC 会议方式的变化。2027 年,委员会仍将召开八次会议,但其中一次会议将不涉及利率投票,也不包含会后声明。“战略会议”明年将增加到两次,使得调整利率的机会(紧急会议除外)仅剩六次。

Well, one surprise If there was one eyebrow-raising moment from the afternoon, it was Warsh's disclosure of changes in how the FOMC will meet. In 2027, the committee will still meet eight times, but one of the meetings will not entail a vote on interest rates, or include a post-meeting statement. The "strategy" meetings will increase to two the next year, leaving just six opportunities to adjust rates — outside of emergency meetings.

好吧,两个意外 FOMC 维持政策不变的投票在广泛预期之中。多位成员投出反对票也并不令人震惊。但理事丽莎·库克投出的其中一张“反对票”着实令人惊讶。理事很少在利率投票中持异议,而库克自 2022 年履新以来从未投过反对票。克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克也对该决定表示反对。两人很可能会在本周结束前提供声明解释其投票理由。

OK, two surprises The FOMC vote to hold policy where it stands was widely expected. Dissent from multiple members also came as no shock. But one of the "no" votes coming from Governor Lisa Cook was a stunner. Governors rarely dissent from rate votes, and Cook hasn't done so at all since taking her seat in 2022. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also opposed the decision. Both likely will provide statements explaining their votes before the end of the week.

AI 的影响 沃什借机谈到了人工智能对经济增长的影响,基本上表示这只是推动扩张的几个因素之一,并称该扩张势头强劲。

The AI impact Warsh took the opportunity to talk about the impact artificial intelligence is having on economic growth, essentially saying that it was just one of several factors driving an expansion that he said was running strong.

更多“音乐椅子”游戏 9月会议后的新闻发布会缩短了——从通常的45分钟左右缩减至半小时,时长与周三的发布会大致相当。此外,记者被限制只能提一个问题,这与以往媒体成员采取“两问一答”方式的做法形成转变。最后,沃什改变了会议室的座位安排,从以往主要任意安排——大型媒体机构代表坐前排——改为上个月的按字母顺序。本月则采用逆字母顺序,让拿麦克风的人时刻保持警惕。

More musical chairs The September meeting featured a shortened post-meeting news conference — cut from the usual 45 minutes or so down to half an hour, about the time of Wednesday's event. Moreover, reporters have been limited to a single question, a switch from prior practices when media members would take a two-for-one approach. Finally, Warsh has changed the seating in the room, going from a largely arbitrary approach — with representatives of larger outfits up front — to alphabetical order last month. This month featured reverse alphabetical order, keeping the bearers of the microphone on their toes. Fed holds rates steady despite concerns over inflation Here is what changed in the new Fed statement How the latest Fed decision could affect your wallet Analysis: Why a $2 trillion deficit and 5% Treasury yields are becoming America’s biggest economic challenge What they're saying:

美联储维持利率不变,尽管对通胀存担忧 以下是新版美联储声明的变化 最新美联储决议可能如何影响你的钱包 分析:为何2万亿美元赤字和5%美债收益率正成为美国最大的经济挑战他们怎么说:“美联储倾向于耐心等待。鉴于近期地缘政治事态发展,不确定性占据主导,似乎他们更倾向于等待更多信息以判断适当的利率水平。”

"The Fed is leaning into patience. It seems they prefer to wait for more information on the appropriate level of rates, as uncertainty reigns supreme in light of recent geopolitical developments." "The Fed has time on its side ...

“美联储拥有时间优势……但前进方向依然明确。美联储仍在收回去年的部分降息,两位委员投反对票凸显了这种紧缩倾向。我们预计12月将加息,2027年初将再次加息。” —— 。

But the direction of travel remains clear. The Fed is still taking back some of last year's rate cuts, and the two dissents underline that tightening bias. We expect a hike in December and another in early 2027." — .

“我们不愿将他的沟通风格特别归类为鸽派或鹰派…… 核心在于美联储政策反应并非非黑即白、二元对立的事情…… 市场已适应沃什的沟通风格,但在双方完全达成共识之前,可能还有段路要走。” —— 。

"We hesitate to characterize his communication as particularly dovish or hawkish ... The bottom line is that the Fed policy reaction is not a black-and-white, binary thing ... The market has adjusted to Warsh's communication style, but there might be a ways to go before they are fully on the same page." — .

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