波音公司令人失望的前景展望引发了该股自2020年6月以来最大单日跌幅，这让看空投资者赢了一把——他们此前几个月一直无视华尔街日益乐观的态度。
Boeing Co.’s disappointing outlook, which sparked the stock’s sharpest selloff since June 2020, handed a win to bearish investors who had shrugged off Wall Street’s increasingly bullish stance over the past several months.
这家飞机制造商的股价今年表现已颇为惨淡，在周二意外下调飞机交付目标之前，股价已从1月23日的高点下跌了25%。受消息影响，股价周二收盘再跌11%。
The planemaker’s stock was already having a rough year, falling 25% from a Jan. 23 high even before Tuesday’s surprise cut to its jet-delivery target. The shares closed down another 11% after the news.
最新挫折凸显了波音股价——较2019年3月440.62美元的历史高点下跌62%——与分析师们日益乐观的情绪之间不断扩大的分歧，后者押注该公司的扭亏努力很快将开始见效。
The latest setback highlighted a growing divide between Boeing’s stock price — down 62% from its all-time high of $440.62 in March 2019 — and growing optimism among analysts betting that the company’s turnaround efforts will soon start bearing fruit.
“投资者并非在争辩看涨理由，而是拒绝为其提前买单，而今天证明他们等待是对的，”Roundhill Investments首席执行官Dave Mazza表示。
“Investors are not disputing the bull case so much as refusing to pay for it in advance, and today proved they were right to wait,” said Dave Mazza, chief executive officer at Roundhill Investments.
在华尔街，本月早些时候对波音的看涨评级达到五年高点，而“卖出”评级已消失。分析师越来越认为公司的障碍正在消退，为其兑现全球商业航空旅行不断增长的需求扫清了道路。
On Wall Street, bullish recommendations on Boeing were at a five-year high earlier this month, while sell ratings had disappeared. Analysts increasingly saw the company’s roadblocks receding, clearing the way for it to cash in on growing global demand for commercial air travel.
截至周一，分析师对波音的平均目标价为265美元，比当时的股价高出约40%。周三，股价延续跌势，盘中最大跌幅达1.9%，报165.01美元，为2025年4月以来最低水平。
The average analyst price target on Boeing as of Monday stood at $265, roughly 40% above the stock price at that time. On Wednesday, the stock extended its decline, falling as much as 1.9% to $165.01, the lowest level since April 2025.
“华尔街可能过早预判了波音加速飞机生产、恢复盈利和产生有意义自由现金流的速度，”Tigress Financial Partners首席投资官Ivan Feinseth表示。
“Wall Street may have gotten ahead of itself in anticipating how quickly Boeing could accelerate aircraft production, restore profitability, and generate meaningful free cash flow,” said Ivan Feinseth, chief investment officer at Tigress Financial Partners.
在周二与分析师的业绩电话会上，波音表示，将无法完成全年交付500架737 Max飞机的目标，787“梦想客机”的交付量也将接近指引区间的低端。与此同时，其营收最大的商用飞机部门录得6.97亿美元亏损，几乎是分析师预估赤字的两倍。公司2027年自由现金流展望为30亿美元，同样低于分析师平均预期的53亿美元。
In an earnings call with analysts on Tuesday, Boeing said it would fall short of its full-year delivery target of 500 737 Max jets and deliver closer to the lower end of its 787 Dreamliner guidance as well. Meanwhile, its commercial airplane division, the biggest by revenue, posted a $697 million loss, nearly double the deficit estimated by analysts. The company’s free cash flow outlook for 2027, at $3 billion, also missed analysts’ average estimate of $5.3 billion.
首席执行官凯利·奥特伯格表示：“正如我多次说过的，把这项增产工作做对，比在某个特定月份达到产率突破更重要，我们将保持纪律性。”
“As I’ve said many times before, it’s more important that we do this ramp right than what particular month we achieve a rate break, and we’ll stay disciplined here,” Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg said.
这些消息掩盖了公司原本颇具看点的一个季度表现：该季度波音获得了737 Max 7和Max 10的监管批准，并赢得了美国海军下一代战斗机的一份丰厚合同。当被置评时，波音引用了公司周二的发言。
These updates overshadowed an otherwise promising quarter for the company, where it clinched regulator approval for the 737 Max 7 and 10, and won a lucrative contract for the US Navy’s next-generation fighter jet. Boeing deferred to the company’s remarks from Tuesday when requested for comment.
梅利厄斯研究分析师斯科特·迈库斯在致客户的报告中写道：“虽然我们认为波音想在进入2027年前重设预期，但门槛似乎定得非常低。”
“While we thought Boeing wanted to reset expectations heading into 2027, the bar seems to be set very low,” Scott Mikus, analyst at Melius Research, wrote in a note to clients.
这增加了过去几个月来的一堆坏消息，就在那时波音一直试图说服投资者，其期盼已久的扭亏为盈走在正轨上。近期的麻烦包括因供应限制导致的产量放缓，以及737 Max飞机出现软件故障的消息——这在问题解决前曾打击投资者信心。短暂的罢工可能性也拖累了情绪。
It adds to a pile of bad news over the past few months, just as Boeing has been trying to convince investors that its long-anticipated turnaround is on the right track. Recent troubles included a production slowdown amid supply constraints, and the news of a software glitch in 737 Max jets that was a blow to investor confidence before getting resolved. The brief possibility of a labor strike also weighed on sentiment.
“过去几年里发生的反复无常让投资者失去了耐心，”Integrity Asset Management投资组合经理乔·吉尔伯特表示。
“Investors have grown impatient with the fits and starts that have happened over the past few years,” said Joe Gilbert, portfolio manager at Integrity Asset Management.
该股票的高估值并无助于提振信心，因为这意味着几乎没有犯错的空间。根据彭博汇编的数据，波音股票按未来12个月预估盈利的约62倍市盈率交易，使其成为道琼斯工业平均指数中估值最高的股票，也是标普500指数中第九昂贵的股票。
The stock’s rich valuation isn’t helping, as it means there is little room for mistakes. Boeing shares are trading at about 62 times estimated earnings over the next 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, making it the most expensive stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the ninth-most priciest on the S&P 500 Index.
尽管如此，看好该股的分析师指出，波音的基础业务依然稳健，订单积压量巨大，监管认证似乎即将尘埃落定。一些分析师表示，最新的业绩指引下调虽然令投资者震惊，但也可能成为一次出清事件。
Still, bullish analysts noted that Boeing’s underlying business remains sound, its backlog is massive and regulatory certifications look close to resolution. The latest cut to guidance, while a jolt for investors, could also serve as a clearing event, some analysts say.
“投资者倾向于喜欢能够随着时间的推移稳步上调数字的股票，而波音似乎现在终于让自己处于可以做到这一点的位置，”法国巴黎银行分析师马修·艾克斯表示。“很明显，卖方在波音盈利预期上有些过于激进，我们认为公司只是需要重置我们的预期。”
“Investors tend to like stocks that can revise numbers steadily higher over time, and Boeing appears to have now finally put itself in a position to do that,” said BNP Paribas analyst Matthew Akers. “It’s clear that the sell-side had gotten a bit over its skis on Boeing estimates, and we think the company just needed to reset our expectations.”