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彭博社

波音再也承担不起“快速行动、打破常规”的代价Boeing Can’t Afford to Move Fast and Break Things, Again

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重建。摄影师:M. Scott Brauer/彭博社Rebuilding. Photographer: M. Scott Brauer/Bloomberg

波音公司的投资者迫不及待地想从这家飞机制造商的扭亏为盈中获利。他们的急躁可能会让公司再次陷入困境,如果首席执行官凯利·奥特伯格在压力下屈服的话。

Co. investors can’t wait to cash in on the aircraft maker’s turnaround. Their impatience could land the company back in trouble if Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg buckles under the pressure.

投资者正在推动波音加快提高客机产量,以便能够迅速从其6120亿美元的商用飞机订单积压中获益。有些人可能梦想着2017年和2018年公司通过股息和历史性高额股票回购每年返还近130亿美元的兴奋日子。

Investors are pushing Boeing to hustle on increasing airliner output so they can quickly reap the bounties of its $612 billion backlog of commercial aircraft orders. Some may dream of the heady days when the company returned close to $13 billion each year in 2017 and 2018 through dividends and historically high share repurchases.

那些丰厚的回报是一家公司陷入深重困境的症状,而非财务实力的指标。当时的波音管理层一直在压缩成本、疏远员工,并将更多工作外包给供应商以增加利润。削角降本的压力最终导致了两起737 MAX坠机事故,造成346人死亡,以及2024年一起舱门塞在飞行中脱落的事件。讽刺的是,所有那些用于股票回购的数十亿美元在2020年波音股价暴跌时付诸东流——至今仍未恢复。

Those hefty returns were a symptom of a company sliding into deep trouble, not an indicator of financial strength. Boeing management at the time had been squeezing costs, alienating its workforce and outsourcing more work to suppliers to juice profits. The pressure to cut corners culminated in two crashes of the 737 MAX that killed 346 people and a 2024 incident in which a door plug blew out midflight. Ironically, all those billions spent on share buybacks went up in smoke when Boeing’s shares tanked in 2020 — they still haven’t recovered.

没有人希望波音回到那些做法。然而,急于获利的呐喊已经开始。奥特伯格于2024年8月接掌陷入困境的波音,他表示,在重建公司的制造文化、将安全和质量放在首位并稳固供应链的过程中,他不会被催促。对现金的呼声将会增长,但奥特伯格的循序渐进的方法正是波音恢复其气势并赶上主要竞争对手空中客车公司所需要的。

Nobody should want Boeing to return to those practices. Yet the battle cry to hurry up and cash in has begun. Ortberg, who took the helm of an ailing Boeing in August 2024, has said that he won’t be rushed as he rebuilds the company’s manufacturing culture to put safety and quality first and to shore up the supply chain. The clamor for cash will grow, but Ortberg’s methodical approach is what Boeing needs to restore its swagger and catch up to its main rival, Airbus SE.

自8月初波音暗示计划的产量提升可能会推迟以来,其股价已下跌超过20%。上周,当奥特伯格详细说明将年度自由现金流提高到2029年的100亿美元将比分析师预计的花费更多时间后,投资者纷纷抛售股票。

Boeing’s shares have slumped more than 20% since early August after it hinted that a planned production ramp up may be delayed. Investors stampeded out of the stock last week after Ortberg detailed that raising annual free cash flow to $10 billion by 2029 will take more time than analysts had estimated.

但这张价格走势图忽略了与波音此前的混乱局面相比所取得的显著进步,当时工人怨声载道、摩拳擦掌准备罢工。由于生产线上的飞机组装极其混乱,未完工的飞机被单独停放、按非正常顺序施工,公司此前被迫设立所谓的“影子工厂”。关于车间一片混乱的报道迫使美国联邦航空管理局(FAA)加强制造监管,并接管了为每架生产出的飞机颁发适航证的权力。供应商(如Spirit AeroSystems)交付的飞机零部件需要波音返工。

But that price graph ignores the impressive progress made compared with Boeing’s previous dysfunction, which had workers disgruntled and itching to strike. The company had previously been forced to create so-called “shadow factories” because the assembly of planes on its production line was so out of order that incomplete planes were parked separately and worked on out of sequence. Reports of chaos on the factory floor compelled the Federal Aviation Administration to increase manufacturing oversight and take control of issuing airworthiness certificates for each plane produced. Suppliers, such as Spirit AeroSystems, were delivering plane parts that Boeing had to rework.

在奥特伯格的领导下,波音修复了与工会的关系,分别与西雅图和圣路易斯地区的机械师工会达成协议结束罢工,并与工程师工会在未发生罢工的情况下达成劳资协议。在看到该做法在Spirit身上取得一些成效后,波音在全球供应商处嵌入了质量检查员、工程师和其他员工。

Under Ortberg, Boeing has repaired relations with its workers’ unions, settling separate strikes with machinists in the Seattle and St. Louis areas and reaching a labor agreement with engineers without a strike. It embedded quality inspectors, engineers and other workers at suppliers around the globe after seeing some success from that approach with Spirit.

2025年初,波音生产其主力单通道机型737 MAX的速度处于“30架出头”每月,并获FAA批准提高产率。目前737月产量已达47架,7月FAA将为新飞机颁发适航证的权限交还给波音,不再管控公司的生产节奏。

Boeing was producing its workhorse, single-aisle 737 MAX aircraft at a rate in the “low 30s” per month at the beginning of 2025 and was given FAA permission to increase that rate. Monthly 737 output is now 47 aircraft, and in July, the FAA handed back to Boeing the authority to issue airworthiness certificates for new planes. It no longer governs the company’s production pace.

现在的挑战是进一步提高产量。这绝非易事。波音必须扩建工厂,保持将质量置于生产目标之上的文化,并与庞大的供应链协调配合,以匹配其生产节奏。

The challenge now is ramping up production further. This is no easy task. Boeing must expand its factories, maintain a culture that puts quality above production targets and coordinate with an extensive supply chain to match its production rhythm.

据奥特伯格透露,公司在将737型飞机的产量稳定在每月47架方面遇到困难,导致将产量提升至每月52架的计划推迟。这一增产步骤需要在华盛顿州埃弗里特建立一条新生产线。其位于南卡罗来纳州北查尔斯顿的工厂也出现类似情况,宽体787型飞机的增产计划面临延误,部分原因是供应商限制。

The company has run into snags stabilizing 737 production at 47 aircraft, delaying plans to take that to 52 aircraft a month, according to Ortberg. The step-up requires a new production line in Everett, Washington. A similar situation is playing out at its factory in North Charleston, South Carolina, where production increases on the wide-body 787 aircraft face delays, some due to supplier constraints.

实现每年100亿美元自由现金流的目标,也给投资带来压力。波音在扩建工厂和设计新型飞机上投入越多,其自由现金流就越低。现在是波音重新投资业务的时候了。

The pressure to hit that goal of $10 billion in annual free cash flow also takes aim at investments. The more Boeing spends to expand factories and design new aircraft, the lower its free cash flow. Now is the time for Boeing to reinvest in the business.

公司刚刚赢得了为空军和海军建造第六代隐形战斗机的合同,锁定了一个需要大量投资的高知名度国防项目,将带来数十年的工作量。

The company just won contracts to build the sixth-generation stealth fighter jet for both the Air Force and the Navy — locking in decades of work on a high-profile defense program that will require heavy investment.

波音还需要设计和制造一款新型商用客机,以在追赶竞争对手空客的过程中保持竞争力。尽管刚刚获得认证,可以开始交付两款新型737 MAX变体机型,并即将开始交付新版777宽体飞机,但这些飞机都延误了多年。空客凭借其A321单通道飞机的加长航程版本赢得客户青睐,该机型与737竞争。波音无法匹敌这款飞机,因为737基于20世纪60年代最初设计的机身,存在局限性,无法像A321XLR那样增加额外燃油箱。当务之急应是弥补这一竞争劣势,而非提振自由现金流以分给股东。

Boeing also needs to design and build a new commercial airliner to remain competitive as it plays catchup to rival Airbus. Although it just gained certification to begin shipments of two new 737 MAX variants and is on the cusp of beginning deliveries of a new version of the 777 wide-body aircraft, those planes were delayed by years. Airbus is winning over customers with an extended range version of its A321 single-aisle jet that competes with the 737. Boeing can’t match that plane because the 737 is built on an airframe that was originally designed in the 1960s and has limitations that preclude adding extra fuel tanks, similar to the A321XLR. The priority should be to remedy this competitive disadvantage, not pump up free cash flow to hand over to shareholders.

随着要求加快进度的呼声愈发尖锐,希望奥特伯格不向压力屈服,坚持不盲目加快增产的立场。波音过去的麻烦让空客抢占了市场份额,并在飞机交付量上扩大了领先优势。再一次重大失误将让这家美国飞机制造商落后得更远。

As the clamor for quicker progress grows more shrill, let’s hope Ortberg doesn’t cave to the pressure and sticks to his guns on not rushing production increases. Boeing’s past troubles allowed Airbus to grab market share and extend its lead on aircraft deliveries. Another major stumble would leave the US plane maker even further behind.

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