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“经济激励有限”:俄罗斯究竟能向非洲提供什么?‘Economic incentives are limited’: What does Russia really offer Africa?

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俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京于2026年10月27日星期二在莫斯科克里姆林宫大礼堂与赤道几内亚总统特奥多罗·奥比昂·恩圭马·姆巴索戈交谈〔美联社照片库/马克西姆·希片科夫/联社供图〕Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks with Equatorial Guinea's President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow, Tuesday, October 27, 2026 [Maxim Shipenkov/Pool via AP Photo]

2019年,我前往班吉郊外的贝伦戈宫,采访了俄罗斯雇佣兵。这里曾是中非共和国自加冕皇帝让-贝德尔·博卡萨的宅邸,如今被瓦格纳集团的武装人员占据。他们对我说起的第一件事,不是他们来保卫的国家,而是他们离开的国家。一个名叫弗拉基米尔的男子同我握了握手。“俄罗斯回到了非洲,”他说。七年之后,瓦格纳的创始人叶夫根尼·普里戈津已经身亡。

In 2019, I travelled to Berengo Palace, outside Bangui, to interview Russian mercenaries. Once the home of Jean-Bedel Bokassa, the Central African Republic’s self-crowned emperor, it was now occupied by fighters from the Wagner Group. One of the first things they told me was not about the country they had come to defend, but the country they had left. A man named Vladimir shook my hand. “Russia is back in Africa,” he said. Seven years later, Wagner’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is dead.

在萨赫勒地区,瓦格纳已被置于俄罗斯国防部控制的“非洲军团”所取代。莫斯科正在乌克兰打仗,一些非洲人被招募参战,其中有些人是在受欺骗的情况下加入的。“正义记者”组织的一项调查记录了截至2026年6月发生的502起非洲人死亡事件。

In the Sahel, Wagner has given way to Africa Corps, controlled by Russia’s Ministry of Defence. Moscow is fighting a war in Ukraine, where Africans have been recruited, some under false pretences. An investigation by Journalists for Justice documented 502 African deaths by June 2026.

在喀麦隆杜阿拉,我遇到了雷吉娜妈妈,她强忍着泪水,双眼布满血丝。她的儿子莫塞斯去俄罗斯参战了。他的肖像挂在墙上。

In Douala, Cameroon, I met Mama Regina, her eyes bloodshot as she held back tears. Her son Moses had gone to Russia to fight. His portrait hung on the wall.

“长得真帅,”她低声说道。和许多家庭一样,她在等待儿子的遗体。非洲人再次为在遥远异国他乡的另一场不属于他们的战争中丧生的男人们哀悼。

“So handsome,” she whispered. Like so many families, she is waiting for his body. Once again, Africans are mourning men lost in someone else’s war on another continent far away from home.

在悲伤中,一些人转向了一座规模虽小但不断发展的俄罗斯正教会。该教会的喀麦隆牧师曾在圣彼得堡接受培训。他说他是来宣讲“好消息”的。

In grief, some have turned to a small but growing Russian Orthodox church. Its Cameroonian pastor was trained in St Petersburg. He says he is here to preach the “good news”.

非洲领导人正在莫斯科聚集参加俄罗斯-非洲峰会。2019年,43位非洲国家元首或政府首脑出席了在索契举行的第一届峰会。

Russia-Africa Summit African leaders are gathering in Moscow for the In 2019, 43 African heads of state or government attended the first summit in Sochi.

2023年在圣彼得堡,即俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后,仅有17位国家元首出席。普京向六个非洲国家提供了免费粮食,俄罗斯后来兑现了这一承诺。今年,克里姆林宫预计将有来自48个国家的代表团出席,其中包括22位国家元首。

In St Petersburg in 2023, after Russia invaded Ukraine, only 17 heads of state came. Putin offered free grain to six African countries, which Russia later delivered. This year, the Kremlin expects delegations from 48 countries, including 22 heads of state.

“参加俄罗斯峰会的经济激励要有限得多,”常驻达喀尔的分析师贝弗利·奥基恩说。

“The economic incentives to go for the Russia summit are much more limited,” says Beverly Ochieng, a Dakar-based analyst.

她说,与美国-非洲和中国-非洲峰会相比,莫斯科提供的大规模投资承诺较少。

Compared with United States-Africa and China-Africa summits, she says, Moscow offers fewer large investment commitments.

“出席的政治激励是这些国家参会的首要原因。”对于马里、布基纳法索和尼日尔的军政府而言,俄罗斯提供了一些更直接的东西:留在台上的支持。

“The political incentives for attending are the primary reasons why these countries are there.”For the military governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, Russia offers something more immediate: Support to remain in power.

法国被挤走,俄罗斯取而代之。然而,武装组织仍在继续发动袭击,人权观察组织指责“非洲军团”在马里杀害平民并酷刑折磨被拘留者。在非殖民化时期,苏联曾为非洲培训过几代军官、政治家和学生。

France was pushed out; Russia stepped in. Yet armed groups continue to attack, and Human Rights Watch has accused Africa Corps forces in Mali of killing civilians and torturing detainees. The Soviet Union trained generations of African officers, politicians and students during decolonisation.

奥基恩曾在肯尼亚的大使馆学习俄语。她说,莫斯科仍然可以打出“我们没有殖民过你们”这张牌。但俄罗斯正面临西方制裁,并在与非洲国家的交往中寻找经济机会。

Ochieng learned Russian at the embassy in Kenya. Moscow, she says, can still play the card of “we didn’t colonise you.”But Russia is facing Western sanctions and looking for economic opportunities in its relationship with African nations.

在马里,由俄罗斯亚德兰集团支持的一座黄金精炼厂已开始建设,马里国家持有62%的股份。在几内亚,俄罗斯铝业巨头俄铝运营着铝土矿和氧化铝厂。在尼日尔,俄罗斯国家原子能公司子公司正在与政府讨论铀项目,此前该公司接管了一座此前由法国欧安诺公司运营的矿山。另一项出售现有铀库存的尝试仍存在争议。

In Mali, construction has begun on a gold refinery backed by Russia’s Yadran Group; the Malian state holds a 62-percent stake. In Guinea, Russian aluminium giant Rusal operates bauxite mines and an alumina plant. In Niger, Rosatom subsidiaries are discussing uranium projects with the government, after the takeover of a mine formerly operated by France’s Orano. A separate attempt to sell existing uranium stockpiles remains in dispute.

本月早些时候,普京表示,俄罗斯的目标不是“从非洲偷走什么”,而是“共同发展”。

Earlier this month, Putin said Russia’s aim was not to “steal something from Africa” but to “develop together”.

2025年,俄罗斯与非洲的贸易额约为280亿美元,相比之下,中国为3480亿美元。2024年,欧盟与非洲的货物贸易额近3550亿欧元(折合约3950亿美元)。

Russia’s trade with Africa was about $28bn in 2025, compared with China’s $348bn. The European Union exchanged nearly 355 billion euros ($395bn) in goods with Africa in 2024.

谢尔盖·埃列季诺夫是一名俄罗斯前军官兼安全分析师,他看到了俄罗斯在非洲军事交易所设下的陷阱。通过确保政权的生存,莫斯科可能会给他们寻找其他出路的空间。“生存并不能创造忠诚,”他说。“它创造的是选择。”奥基恩也警告称,不要把示威活动中的俄罗斯国旗误认为是广泛的支持。这并不意味着“所有非洲人只是坐在那里亲俄,”她说。

Sergey Eledinov, a former Russian officer and security analyst, sees a trap in Russia’s military bargain in Africa. By securing governments, Moscow may give them room to look elsewhere. “Survival doesn’t create loyalty,” he says. “It creates options.”Ochieng also cautions against mistaking Russian flags at demonstrations for widespread support. They do not mean “all Africans are just sitting around being pro-Russia,” she said.

她说,对莫斯科而言,这次峰会是一个展示其持续“政治相关性”的机会,尽管西方越来越将其视为一个贱民国家。

For Moscow, she says, the summit is a chance to demonstrate its continued “political relevance”, even if the West increasingly regards it as a pariah state.

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