唐纳德·特朗普总统将于周四再次前往南卡罗来纳州，因为共和党人日益担心参议员达林·格雷厄姆曾经稳操胜券的席位可能会失守。
President Donald Trump is headed back to South Carolina on Thursday, as Republicans grow increasingly worried that Sen. Darline Graham’s once-safe seat could be slipping away.
“这是一场他妈的火车事故，”南卡罗来纳州共和党众议员南希·梅斯周三对这场竞选评价道，“一团糟。”梅斯告诉“MS NOW”，无论是在公开还是私下的民调中，格雷厄姆在某些调查中领先，在另一些中落后，这引发了南卡罗来纳州共和党人的担忧。“情况不妙，”她说。
“It’s a fucking train wreck,” Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., said of the race on Wednesday. “It’s a mess.”Mace told MS NOW that, in both public and private polling, Graham is up in some surveys and down in others, prompting concern among South Carolina Republicans. “It’s not good,” she said.
一位也看过该竞选私下民调的南卡罗来纳州共和党官员表达了类似看法，告诉“MS NOW”，这场选举“比必要的程度更胶着”。这位共和党人要求匿名，以便在不引发党内反弹的情况下讨论竞选情况，他表示，共和党在南卡罗来纳州投入的资源——无论是资金还是总统的时间——令人震惊。
A South Carolina GOP official who had also seen private polling on the race struck a similar note, telling MS NOW the election is “tighter than where it needs to be.”The Republican, who requested anonymity to discuss the race without prompting backlash from the party, said the amount of capital Republicans are allocating toward South Carolina — both in dollars and in the president’s time — was jarring.
“我们不得不在南卡罗来纳州花费时间和资源，这太疯狂了，”这位官员说。
“The fact that we’re having to spend time and resources in South Carolina is wild,” the official said.
“总统花了大量时间去很多不同的州，包括我们州，”这位共和党官员补充道，“其中很多可以说是可以避免的，或者说本来可以避免。”特朗普定于周四访问南卡罗来纳州，这是他在过去两周内的第二次访问，也是过去三个月内的第三次访问，此举正值格雷厄姆的竞选活动遭遇一系列近期不利因素之际。
“The president’s taken a lot of time to go to a lot of different states, including ours,” the GOP official added. “And a lot of that is arguably avoidable, or was avoidable.”Trump is scheduled to visit South Carolina for the second time in the last two weeks — his third visit in the last three months — as Graham’s campaign faces a series of recent bad breaks.
周三，据《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院发布的一项民调显示，格雷厄姆与民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯以48%对48%打成平手。周一，南卡罗来纳州两位前州长——一位民主党人、一位共和党人——联合背书安德鲁斯。周五，南卡罗来纳州众议员拉尔夫·诺曼的儿子撰写评论文章称，他无法投票给格雷厄姆。
On Wednesday, a poll from The New York Times/Siena released reported that Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews were tied at 48%. On Monday, former South Carolina governors — one Democrat and one Republican — issued a joint endorsement for Andrews. And on Friday, the son of South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman penned an op-ed saying he couldn’t vote for Graham.
“在这次选举中，没有真正的保守派可供投票，”诺曼的儿子沃伦写道。
“There is no true conservative to vote for in this election,” Norman’s son, Warren, wrote.
距离选举日仅剩五天，共和党人做出了这种悲观评估，此时南卡罗来纳州的参议员席位——以及参议院的整体控制权——都悬而未决。
The gloomy assessment from Republicans comes with just five days to go until Election Day, as South Carolina’s Senate seat — and overall control of the Senate — hang in the balance.
红宝石般的“棕榈州”自1998年以来就没有选出过民主党联邦参议员，但民调显示，今年可能会打破这一纪录。随着特朗普空降该州，一些共和党人将这次访问视为一把双刃剑。
The ruby red Palmetto State hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998, but polls show this year could be the one to break that streak. As Trump parachutes into the state, some Republicans see the visit as a double-edged sword.
一方面，共和党人表示，特朗普具有一种与生俱来的能力，能动员他的基本盘，而这群选民对格雷厄姆的获胜联盟至关重要。
e hand, Republicans say Trump has an innate ability to turn out his base, a bloc of voters that is crucial to Graham’s winning coalition.
梅斯在谈到特朗普时说：“他将不得不把她一路拉过终点线。如果MAGA（让美国再次伟大）阵营周二不出来投票，她就会输掉。”但另一方面，共和党人警告称，特朗普对这场竞选的过度介入可能会让一些选民反感。总统曾鼓励南卡罗来纳州长H·R·麦克马斯特任命格雷厄姆完成其兄弟的任期。他还敦促格雷厄姆加入长达六年的完整任期竞选。一旦她这样做了，总统便予以背书。
“He’s going to have to drag her across the finish line,” Mace said of Trump. “If MAGA doesn’t show up to vote on Tuesday, she loses.”But on the other hand, Republicans warn that some voters could be turned off by Trump’s heavy involvement in the race. The president encouraged South Carolina Gov. H.R. McMaster to appoint Graham to finish her brother’s term. He also urged Graham to jump into the race for the full six-year term. And once she did, the president endorsed her.
诺曼说：“他正试图将这位候选人硬塞给南卡罗来纳州的人民，以促成她的胜利。”
“He’s trying to force-feed the candidate for her victory with the people in South Carolina,” Norman said.
梅斯使用了更生动的比喻。她说：“这是强塞到他们嘴里的，而他们并不喜欢这样。”这种情绪加剧了选民中一种更广泛的担忧，即格雷厄姆能出现在选票上仅仅是因为她的姓氏，在经历了三个月的速成从政生涯后，这种私下议论变得越来越大声。梅斯说：“他们不相信裙带关系。”
Mace used an even more vivid metaphor. “This was shoved down their throat,” she said, “and they don’t like it.”The sentiment feeds into a broader concern among voters that Graham is only on the ticket because of her last name, a whisper that has grown louder throughout her three-month crash course in elected politics. “They don’t believe in nepotism,” Mace said.
当然，许多共和党人坚称格雷厄姆状况良好。一名南卡罗来纳州共和党战略师因未获授权讨论这场竞选而要求匿名，他表示特朗普的访问将对她的竞选有所帮助。
Of course, plenty of Republicans insist Graham is in fine shape. A South Carolina GOP strategist, who requested anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the race, said Trump’s visit would help her campaign.
这名操盘手说：“在我们需要激发热情并让他们去投票站的选民中，他是有效的。那些不喜欢特朗普或不喜欢共和党的人，无论如何也不会投票给我们。”但数据表明，格雷厄姆在争取共和党人回归方面还有许多硬仗要打。
“Among the voters that we need to energize and get out to the polls, he is effective,” the operative said. “The people who don’t like Trump, or don’t like the Republican Party, were not gonna vote for us anyway.”But the data suggests Graham has her work cut out for her on bringing Republicans home.
《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的民调发现，仅有 80% 的共和党人支持格雷厄姆 —— 与安德鲁斯获得 97% 的民主党人支持相比，这一数字显著偏低。值得注意的是，该民调是在特朗普在该州举行两场集会之后进行的。
The New York Times/Siena poll found that just 80% of Republicans are backing Graham — a strikingly low figure compared to the 97% of Democratic support Andrews has secured. Notably, the poll was conducted after Trump rallied twice in the state.
共和党阵营的颓势在诺曼身上得到了具象化。这位南卡罗来纳州共和党人无数次表示，他计划投票给格雷厄姆，理由是他之前签署了一份团结承诺书。但很明显，他对此并不热衷。
The lagging GOP dynamic is personified by Norman. The South Carolina Republican has said on countless occasions that he plans to vote for Graham, citing a unity pledge he previously signed. But it’s clear he’s not excited about it.
诺曼告诉 MS NOW，他无意在冲刺阶段与格雷厄姆同台竞选，并指出一个月前他拒绝了陪同格雷厄姆出席竞选活动的邀请。当被问及三次将投票给谁时，诺曼也拒绝说出格雷厄姆的名字，只是回答：“我支持共和党候选人。”他还质疑格雷厄姆除了特朗普之外是否还有任何政治主张。“除了喜欢唐纳德·特朗普，她还有什么立场？”他问道。
Norman told MS NOW he has no plans to campaign with Graham in the final stretch, noting that he declined an invite to join Graham on the trail a month ago. Norman also refused to say Graham’s name when asked three times who he’s voting for, simply responding, “I support the Republican candidate.”And he questioned whether Graham has any political opinions beyond Trump. “What position does she have other than she likes Donald Trump?” he asked.
目前正在进行一项支持诺曼的写入竞选活动，但他表示自己并未参与。
A write-in campaign is underway for Norman, but he says he’s not involved.
关于格雷厄姆信仰的疑问触及了她最大的弱点：许多选民仍在疑惑她是谁、她代表什么，在她于 8 月的辩论舞台上表示自己“在国家安全方面不太了解情况”后，他们对她的资质仍持怀疑态度。
The question of Graham’s beliefs hits on her biggest vulnerability: Many voters are still wondering who she is or what she stands for, and they remain skeptical of her qualifications after she said she was “not that informed on national security” on the debate stage in August.
“她在决选辩论中的表现给她造成了巨大伤害，”一位看过辩论后民调的南卡罗来纳州共和党官员说。“这动摇了人们的信心，让人不禁要问：我们到底在选谁？”数字也反映了这一叙事。《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调显示，26% 的可能投票者表示他们投票给安德鲁斯是因为对格雷厄姆的品格/能力持负面看法。在这一群体中，48% 是共和党人。
“Her debate performance in the runoff hurt her tremendously,” the South Carolina GOP official, who had seen polling after the debate, said. “And it’s shaking people’s confidence that, like, who are we electing?”The numbers also reflect that narrative. Twenty-six percent of likely voters polled by The New York Times/Siena said they’re voting for Andrews because they have a negative view of Graham’s character/competence. Of that group, 48% were Republicans.
格雷厄姆的支持者将这些下滑归因于她向选民介绍自己的时间太短。周三的集会距离她的哥哥、参议员林赛·格雷厄姆去世仅三个月。
Supporters of Graham have chalked up those dips to the short runway she’s had to introduce herself to voters. Wednesday’s rally comes just three months after her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, died.
“时间从来都不站在我们这边，”这位南卡罗来纳州共和党策略人士说。但诺曼表示，总统的行动胜过预测的乐观和包装。
“Time has not ever been on our side,” the South Carolina GOP strategist said. But Norman said the president’s actions speak louder than projected optimism and spin.
当被问及格雷厄姆的竞选活动是否陷入困境时，他指向总统的行程。
Asked if Graham’s campaign was in trouble, he pointed to the president’s travel.
“你觉得他如果不是这样，会第二次来南卡罗来纳州吗？”诺曼问道。“不会。”
“Do you think he’d be coming down here for the second time to South Carolina if she wasn’t?”Norman asked. “No.”