
玛丽亚·科里纳·马查多返回委内瑞拉,其气势与戏剧性在某种程度上堪比两个多世纪前西蒙·玻利瓦尔的归来。但如果她希望自己的故事结局比19世纪拉丁美洲的伟大英雄事迹更圆满,她就必须让自己对国家的热情与对变革的耐心相匹配。
María Corina Machado’s return to Venezuela has some of the same sweep and drama of Simón Bolivar’s return more than two centuries ago. But if she wants her story to end better than one of the great heroic deeds of 19th-century Latin America, she will have to match her passion for her nation with patience for change.
这个国家最具代表性的女英雄、一位诺贝尔奖得主,在多次尝试失败、流亡近一年之后终于回到家乡,成千上万的委内瑞拉人涌上前去迎接她,满怀敬仰与自豪。对于任何目睹过委内瑞拉人近年来所遭受苦难的人来说,这些画面再令人动容不过。
Here comes the country’s defining heroine, a Nobel laureate, finally returning home after repeated failed attempts and almost a year in exile, with thousands of Venezuelans rushing to greet her with admiration and pride. For anyone who has witnessed the suffering Venezuelans have endured in recent years, the images couldn’t be more emotional.
在委内瑞拉成为愤世嫉俗的地缘政治算计对象之际,在一些看似不可思议的政治联盟正在形成、一场对其石油资产的争夺已经开始之时,马查多周日的戏剧性重现为这个故事补上了缺失的一味要素:希望。对华盛顿而言,这及时提醒了人们:只有普通委内瑞拉人对更美好的未来有清晰的愿景,这场复杂的政治过渡才有可能实现。
At a time when Venezuela is the subject of cynical geopolitical calculations, and while some unlikely political alliances form and a race for its oil assets begins, Machado’s dramatic reappearance on Sunday provides a missing ingredient in this story: hope. For Washington, it’s a timely reminder that this complex political transition will happen only if ordinary Venezuelans have a clear vision of a better future.
马查多的归国强化了在委内瑞拉实现政治过渡和合法民众投票的理由。她抵达首都的第二天,美国国务院便公布了迄今为止最清晰的新选举方案,即先经历一个制度重建过程——这不可能只是巧合。目前尚未确定具体日期,但该蓝图要求在今年12月中旬前组建新的最高法院(简称TSJ),随后不久改组选举机构(简称CNE)。在这两个机构到位约六个月后,便可举行立法和总统选举,从而有可能将投票安排在2027年底或2028年初。
Machado’s homecoming strengthens the case for a political transition and a legitimate popular vote in Venezuela. It can’t be a coincidence that the day after her arrival in the capital, the US State Department laid out its clearest plan yet for new elections, following a process of institutional rebuilding. No firm date has been set, but the blueprint calls for a new Supreme Court, known as the TSJ, by mid-December and an overhauled electoral body, or CNE, shortly afterward. After both have been in place for six months or so, legislative and presidential elections could happen, putting a potential vote on the calendar in late 2027 or early 2028.
马查多一直被排除在美国斡旋的政府与部分反对派之间的谈判之外,如今她重返直接政治对抗,面临如何调整自身影响力的挑战。与白宫的紧张关系已在酝酿,不论公平与否,特朗普总统政府内有些人怀疑,她仅仅身在该国就可能造成干扰,因为他们与她的死对头德尔西·罗德里格斯建立了良好关系。压力过大,马查多可能会破坏国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥所谓的“和解”谈判。
Machado, who has been sidelined from the US-brokered negotiations between the government and part of the opposition, now faces the challenge of how to calibrate her influence as she returns to direct political confrontation. Tensions with the White House have been brewing and, fairly or not, some in President Donald Trump’s administration suspect her mere presence in the country could be disruptive after the rapport they built with her fierce rival, Delcy Rodríguez. Too much pressure, and Machado could derail Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s so-called “reconciliation” talks.
因此,她最好的做法是与美国政府密切合作,在机构恢复和石油工业复苏等问题上开展协作——即使这有时意味着接受原本难以接受的条件,包括选举进程放缓。马查多应抵制加速进程或提出不切实际要求的诱惑,即使她有正当性这样做。这些新机构越强大,她掌权后就越能从中受益。
That’s why her best approach would be to work closely with the US government, collaborating on such issues as institutional restoration and the recovery of the oil industry — even if that may at times mean accepting conditions that would otherwise be hard to swallow, including a slower path toward an election. Machado should resist the temptation to rush the process or make impractical demands, even if she has the legitimacy to do so. The stronger these new institutions are, the better they can serve her when she reaches power.
没有美国的指导,制度化进程将十分困难。认为委内瑞拉能立即从独裁过渡到自由公正的选举,是一厢情愿。仅仅建立国家选举委员会就需要巨大努力:任命独立当局、组建专业工作人员、改变选举制度、恢复数十个政党、更新选民登记册以纳入数百万海外居民。所有这一切都需要数月时间。
Without American tutelage, the process of institutionalization will be difficult. The notion that Venezuela can go immediately from dictatorship to free and fair elections is wishful thinking. Just setting up the CNE will require titanic efforts: naming independent authorities, building a professional staff, changing the electoral system, rehabilitating dozens of political parties and updating the electoral registry to include millions living abroad. All of that will take months.

好消息是,时间站在马查多一边。除非公众舆论发生重大转变,否则她极有可能成为委内瑞拉总统。民调显示,她仍是该国最受欢迎的政客。她本人的存在,就为争取选举的事业增添了更大的民众力量。
The good news is that time is on Machado’s side. Unless there is a massive shift in public opinion, she is very likely to be Venezuela’s president. Polls show she remains the most popular politician in the country. Her very presence gives the quest for elections greater popular strength.
她面临的挑战是不能过于急躁。“你不可能靠街头抗议就走进民主,”鲁比奥本周对记者说,回顾了他参与过的委内瑞拉多次失败的权力交替尝试。“和平的方式是通过一个过程,而这就是我们制定的过程。如果这个过程不起作用,那么替代方案将会更糟。”这可能需要与政权进行政治妥协,而马查多从未以此著称。可以理解的是,在数十年的政治滥用之后,她希望政权下台。但这不会一夜之间发生。委内瑞拉所需的那种国家建设,不能由单一政治集团完成。
Her challenge will be not to get too impatient. “You’re not going to street-protest your way into a democracy,” Rubio told reporters this week, recalling Venezuela’s many failed transition attempts in which he has been involved. “The way you do it peacefully is through a process, and it’s the one we’ve set up. And if this process doesn’t work, then the alternative is going to be worse.”That may require making political compromises with the regime, something that Machado has never been known for. Understandably, after decades of political abuses, she wants gone. But that won’t happen overnight. The kind of nation-building Venezuela needs cannot be done by a single political group.
“这是我们推动国家前进的最后也是最好的机会,”恩里克·马尔克斯说,他是2024年总统候选人,因谴责尼古拉斯·马杜罗的虚假选举结果而入狱一年。他告诉我,他“意识到美国人监督这一进程的重要性,以及政治党派之间和解的必要性”。我与之交谈的加拉卡斯一些人相信,该政权已进入终末阶段,不仅因缺乏凝聚力而削弱,还因作为其始终鄙视的帝国的傀儡而负担沉重。
“This is the last and best opportunity we have to move the country forward,” said Enrique Márquez, a former 2024 presidential candidate who spent a year in prison for denouncing Nicolás Maduro’s fake election results. He told me he was “aware of the importance of the Americans in overseeing this process, and of the need for reconciliation among the political parties.”Some of the people I spoke to from Caracas are convinced has reached a terminal stage, weakened not only by its lack of cohesion but also by the burden of being a puppet of the empire it always despised.

也许吧。但无论如何,在罗德里格斯及其随从的强势表象背后,他们越来越不得人心,在未来的委内瑞拉没有立足之地。对马查多到来的笨拙反应,暴露了他们明显的弱点。
Maybe. But in any case, behind their façade of strength, Rodríguez and her entourage are increasingly unpopular, with no place in the future Venezuela. The clumsy reaction to Machado’s arrivals speaks to their evident weakness.
在这种情况下,很容易理解马查多为何想要惩罚她的对手。但现在不是时候。委内瑞拉比以往任何时候都更接近真正的权力交替,而这将是吸引委内瑞拉所需外国投资的关键。对马查多来说,更具和解姿态的立场不仅能使权力交替更加顺利,还能表明她拥有委内瑞拉如此迫切需要且理应拥有的总统所需的政治技巧。
In such circumstances, it’s easy to understand how Machado would want to punish her rivals. But now is not the time. Venezuela is closer than ever to a genuine transition, which which will be key to attracting the foreign investment Venezuela needs. And for Machado, a more conciliatory stance would not only smooth the transition, it would also show that she has the political skill to be the president Venezuela so desperately needs and so richly deserves.