美国经济夏季增长加速 人工智能企业与消费者支出推动第三季度GDP增长 经济以3.4%的速度增长,为一年来最快增速。
U.S. Economy Grew More Rapidly Over the Summer Spending by A.I. companies and consumers powered gross domestic product growth in the third quarter. The economy grew 3.4 percent, the fastest pace in a year.
美国经济增长在夏季表现强劲,企业向人工智能领域大量投资,尽管高物价令消费者情绪低落,但消费者仍保持支出,下周将举行中期选举。
Quarterly change in gross domestic product U.S. economic growth was robust over the summer, as businesses poured money into artificial intelligence and consumers kept spending despite high prices that have soured their mood ahead of midterm elections next week.
经济分析局周四表示,衡量全国生产商品和服务总值的最广泛指标——国内生产总值(GDP),经通胀调整后,第三季度以3.4%的年率增长。
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the country, increased at a 3.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter, adjusted for inflation, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday.
这较春季的2.2%增速有所加快,为一年来最快增速。占经济产出三分之二以上的消费者支出以3.8%的速度增长。
That was an acceleration from the 2.2 percent rate in the spring, and was the fastest growth in a year. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic output, grew at a 3.8 percent rate.
强劲的支出和增长数据与许多选民在下周中期选举前对经济给出的差评形成鲜明对比。民调一致显示,美国人对高昂的生活成本感到沮丧,并认为特朗普总统和国会共和党人未能兑现改善负担能力的承诺,应对此负责。
The strong spending and growth figures contrast with the poor marks that many voters are giving the economy as they head to the ballot box for next week’s midterm elections. Polls consistently show that Americans are frustrated with the high cost of living and hold President Trump and congressional Republicans responsible for failing to deliver on their promises to improve affordability.
这些不满建立在现实基础上。第三季度消费者物价较上年同期上涨3.5%,部分原因是汽油价格高企,这是特朗普决定与伊朗开战的直接结果。
Those frustrations are grounded in reality. Consumer prices were up 3.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, driven in part by high gas prices that are the direct result of Mr. Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran.
尽管如此,周四发布的初步数据是最新证据,表明尽管美国人可能对通胀不满,但尚未开始削减开支。这有助于在动荡时期维持经济增长,但也可能因让企业更容易将涨价转嫁给客户而助长通胀。
Still, the data released Thursday, which is preliminary, is the latest evidence that while Americans may be unhappy about inflation, they haven’t started to pull back their spending. That has helped keep the economy on track through a tumultuous period, but it could also be contributing to inflation by making it easier for businesses to pass on price increases to customers.
“这是一个火热的经济,”美国银行美国经济主管阿迪蒂亚·巴夫说。“这是个好消息。坏消息是,通胀是我们为这个火热经济付出的代价,而且通胀将保持在高位。”这可能会给美联储官员带来麻烦,他们正试图在通胀连续五年高于每年2%物价涨幅目标后将其降下来。周三,决策者连续第二次会议决定不加息,这种渐进式做法令一些经济学家警告,有让通胀变得更加根深蒂固的风险。
“This is a hot economy,” said Aditya Bhave, head of U.S. economics for Bank of America. “That’s the good news. The bad news is that inflation is the price we pay for that hot economy, and inflation is going to remain elevated.”That could be a problem for officials at the Federal Reserve, who are trying to bring down inflation after five years above their goal of 2 percent annual price increases. On Wednesday, policymakers decided against raising interest rates for a second straight meeting, a gradual approach that some economists warn runs the risk of allowing inflation to become more entrenched.
人工智能投资热潮直接或间接地导致了经济韧性的很大一部分。今年企业已投入数千亿美元用于建设数据中心及相关基础设施,到2030年计划投入的资金更达数万亿美元。这已波及整个经济,不仅提振了芯片制造商和计算机设备制造商的前景,也提振了那些看似与科技行业相距甚远的公司的前景,比如许多数据中心内部使用的灰色油漆的生产商。
The A.I. investment boom is responsible, directly and indirectly, for much of the economy’s resilience. Companies have invested hundreds of billions of dollars into building data centers and related infrastructure this year, with trillions more planned by 2030. That has rippled through the economy, lifting the fortunes not just of chipmakers and computer equipment manufacturers but also of companies seemingly far removed from the tech sector, like the producer of the gray paint used inside many data centers.
第三季度设备投资以惊人的20.9%年率增长,整体企业投资以12.7%年率增长,占GDP增长的一半以上。这些数字在一定程度上具有误导性,因为数据中心使用的许多计算机芯片和其他零部件是在海外生产的,因此不被视为国内产出的一部分。第三季度进口以近20%的年率增长,很大程度上是因为计算机设备的进口。
Investment in equipment grew at an astonishing 20.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter, and overall business investment grew at a 12.7 percent annual rate, accounting for more than half of G.D.P. growth. Those numbers are somewhat misleading, because many of the computer chips and other parts used in data centers are produced overseas, and therefore aren’t considered part of domestic output. Imports grew at a nearly 20 percent rate in the third quarter, in large part because of shipments of computer equipment.
然而,企业的人工智能投资也需要国内零部件和劳动力。这有助于抵消经济其他领域的疲软,尤其是受高利率重创的房地产市场。住宅投资(包括住房建设)在过去七个季度中第六次收缩。
Companies’ A.I. investments require domestic parts and labor too, however. That is helping to offset weakness elsewhere in the economy, particularly the housing market, which has been hit hard by high interest rates. Residential investment, which includes housing construction, contracted for the sixth time in the past seven quarters.
投资者对人工智能相关事物的热情也帮助推高了股价,进而支持了消费支出,尤其是富裕家庭的消费。经济学家们对这种“财富效应”在强劲支出数据中究竟发挥多大作用意见不一,但几乎没有人怀疑其重要性。
Investor enthusiasm for all things A.I. has also helped push up share prices, which, in turn, has supported consumer spending, especially among wealthy households. Economists disagree about exactly how big a role this “wealth effect” is playing in the strong spending figures, but few doubt that it is important.
“韧性故事的核心在于人工智能相关支出、资产市场和高端消费者之间的联系,”摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家迈克尔·加彭说。
“The resiliency story has been about the connection between A.I.-related spending, asset markets and the upper-end consumer,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley.
经济对人工智能作为增长来源的依赖,如果这一繁荣放缓,可能会变成一种脆弱性。最近几周,随着投资者开始审查人工智能建设背后的一些公司,并质疑巨额支出是否会有回报,担忧情绪日益高涨。
The economy’s reliance on A.I. as a source of growth could turn into a vulnerability if the boom falters. Concerns have mounted in recent weeks as investors have begun to scrutinize some of the companies behind the A.I. build-out, and to raise questions about whether the massive spending will pay off.
“我现在看待经济的方式,用一个词来说就是脆弱,”斯坦福经济政策研究所首席助理瑞安·卡明斯说。“股市收益带来的这种消费是脆弱的。而在我看来,股市收益本身也极其脆弱。”本·卡塞尔曼是《纽约时报》首席经济记者。他近20年来一直报道经济新闻。
“The way I look at the economy now is, in one word, fragile,” said Ryan Cummings, the chief of staff for the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. “You have this fragile consumption happening from the stock-market gains. And the stock market gains themselves in my view are incredibly fragile.”Ben Casselman is the chief economics correspondent for The Times. He has reported on the economy for nearly 20 years.