——这是CNBC为中国中央电视台制作的2026年10月30日财经新闻报道脚本。
– This is the script of CNBC's financial news report for China's CCTV on October 30, 2026.
尽管美国经济在第三季度保持了增长，但其对人工智能投资的过度依赖正逐渐成为主要的风险。
While the US economy maintained growth in the third quarter, its heavy reliance on artificial intelligence investment is emerging as a primary risk.
数据显示，设备支出为第三季度GDP增长贡献了1.16个百分点，约占整体GDP增幅的三分之一，创下了除疫情后反弹期外自2011年第三季度以来的最大贡献率。进一步来看，总设备支出中的信息处理设备贡献了0.86个百分点，占该设备类别贡献率的70%以上。这些支出直接推动了数据中心的扩张和人工智能计算基础设施的发展。
Data indicates that equipment spending contributed 1.16 percentage points to third quarter GDP growth, accounting for roughly one third of overall GDP expansion, marking its strongest contribution since the third quarter of 2011, excluding the post pandemic rebound. Looking closer, information processing equipment within total equipment spending contributed 0.86 percentage points, representing over 70% of the equipment category's contribution. These outlays directly drive data center expansions and artificial intelligence compute infrastructure.
穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示：“你面对的是一个双轨经济。人工智能经济表现良好。非人工智能经济则已经处于疲软状态且相当脆弱。因此，这里存在着将经济推入非常疲软的环境、甚至不排除陷入衰退的真实风险。”随着人工智能商业化的推进，投资回报实现的时间表以及企业将计算能力变现的能力仍然存在不确定性。因此，人工智能投资热潮的可持续性已成为市场的主要焦点，为美国的增长前景注入了新的不确定性。
MARK ZANDI Chief Economist Moody's Analytics "You're on a two track economy. The AI economy is fine. The non AI economy, and that is already you know, in a weakened position and quite soft. So you're running a real risk here of pushing the economy, if not into recession, to a very kind of weak environment." As the commercialization of artificial intelligence progresses, the timeline for investment returns to materialize and the ability of corporations to monetize compute power remain uncertain. Consequently, the sustainability of the artificial intelligence investment boom has become a primary focal point for markets, injecting fresh uncertainty into the US growth outlook.
与此同时，随着经济扩张，通货膨胀压力也在加剧。作为美联储首选的通胀指标，个人消费支出价格指数在9月同比上涨3.6%，创下自5月以来的最高水平。在此情况下，中低收入家庭正经历着明显的压力，迫使一些低收入家庭动用储蓄来支付基本生活开支。
Concurrently, inflationary pressures are intensifying alongside economic expansion. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.6% year over year in September, marking its highest level since May. Under these conditions, lower and middle income households are experiencing pronounced strain, forcing some low income families to draw down savings to cover basic living expenses.
美国经济分析局发布的最新统计数据显示，美国个人储蓄率（定义为个人储蓄占可支配收入的百分比）在9月降至3.8%，延续了7月的4.5%和8月的4.0%的下滑趋势。与此同时，纽约联邦储备银行的季度家庭债务报告显示，美国第二季度信用卡总余额达到1.26万亿美元，徘徊在历史峰值附近。
The latest statistical release from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that the US personal saving rate, defined as personal savings as a percentage of disposable income, slipped to 3.8% in September, declining further from 4.5% in July and 4.0% in August. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's quarterly household debt report revealed that total US credit card balances reached 1.26 trillion dollars in the second quarter, hovering just below historic peaks.
此外，美国经济扩张似乎无法跟上债务的迅速扩张，导致财政压力不断积聚。根据《华尔街日报》的计算，截至9月30日，公众持有的联邦债务占年度GDP的100.03%，这是该比例自1946年以来首次达到三位数。这种不断累积的债务负担正日益考验着美联储在财政压力下维持货币政策独立性的能力。
Furthermore, US economic expansion appears unable to keep pace with rapid debt expansion, allowing fiscal pressures to accumulate. According to Wall Street Journal calculations, federal debt held by the public equaled 100.03% of annual GDP as of September 30th, marking the first time this ratio has reached triple digits since 1946. This compounding debt burden increasingly tests the Federal Reserve's ability to maintain monetary policy independence under fiscal strain.
国际金融协会总裁兼首席执行官蒂姆·亚当斯表示：“我们在周期顶峰时期的美国面临着占GDP 6%的财政赤字。那么，当周期转向时会发生什么？它终究会转向。所以，这种情况在某个时候会发生变化，而这6%的赤字将会更高。”
TIM ADAMSPresident, CEO Institute of International Finance (IIF) "We're running a deficit in the United States of 6% of GDP at the top of the cycle. So, what happens when the cycle turns? It will eventually. So, at some point it will change, and that 6% is going to go higher."
格尼斯全球投资者公司首席投资官埃德蒙·哈里斯表示：“赤字支出需要得到控制。目前没有实现这一目标的政治意愿。这无疑给美联储施加了很大的压力，但他们确实能够影响短期货币利率，然后希望这能传导至长期货币。但在这一点上，他能做的事情是有限度的。”
EDMUND HARRISSCIO Guinness Global Investors "Deficit spending needs to be reined in. There is no political will to do that. It certainly puts a lot of pressure on the Fed, but they can really influence the short term money rates and then hope that that will feed through into longer term money. But at this point, there are limits under what he can do."