众议院多数党领袖史蒂夫·斯卡利斯（共和党-路易斯安那州）周三强调，如果选举日选民投票率强劲，共和党有望保住对众议院的控制权。
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) on Wednesday stressed that Republicans could hold onto their control of the House if there’s strong voter turnout on Election Day.
NewsNation的凯蒂·帕夫利奇询问斯卡利斯，他是否正在为民主党主导的众议院做准备——后者可能会在特朗普两个任期之间调查特朗普总统及其家人，或对特朗普进行第三次弹劾。
NewsNation’s Katie Pavlich asked Scalise if he was preparing for a Democrat-led House looking to investigate President Trump and his family or impeach Trump for a third time between his two terms.
“凯蒂，我们知道这一点，首先，目前有很多胶着的竞选，如果好人待在家里，社会主义者完全可能赢下其中一些席位，”斯卡利斯在“凯蒂·帕夫利奇今晚”节目中表示。“这就是为什么我们现在最重要的工作是鼓励人们出来投票，因为如果平时不参加中期选民的人这次真的出来投票，我们就能守住众议院，”他继续说道。
“Katie, we know this, and that is number one, there are a lot of close races right now, and if good people stay home, socialists can absolutely win some of these seats,” Scalise said during an appearance on “Katie Pavlich Tonight.”“And that’s why the biggest thing we’re doing right now is encouraging people to turn out and vote, because if folks that normally sit out of midterm actually show up and vote this time around, we can hold the House,” he continued.
斯卡利斯补充说，如果“好人待在家里，你会看到这些疯狂的极左社会主义候选人——他们痛恨特朗普总统。他们发誓要报复。他们想追查总统，追查他的家人。”帕夫利奇指出，共和党守住众议院控制权的几率“极其微弱”，并询问这位路易斯安那州共和党议员是否关注任何可能决定哪个党控制众议院的摇摆选区。
Scalise added that if “good people stay at home, you’re seeing these crazy far-left socialist candidates –– they hate President Trump. They vowed retribution. They want to go after the president, go after his family.”Pavlich noted that the odds of the GOP keeping a lock on the House were “razor-thin,” and asked if the Louisiana Republican was looking at any of the toss-up races that could determine which party controls the lower chamber.
这位议员表示，如果选民出来投票，这些选区对共和党来说可能是胜利。民调专家内特·西尔弗周日表示，如果共和党守住众议院控制权，中期选举民调“必须非常不准”，他解释说，民主党更艰难的战役将是赢下特朗普2024年获胜的州，以夺取参议院控制权。
The lawmaker said these races could be wins for Republicans “if folks show up.”Pollster Nate Silver said Sunday that midterm polling “would have to be very wrong” if the GOP held their control of the House, explaining that the tougher battle for Democrats would be winning states won by Trump in 2024 to attain control of the Senate.
民调机构普遍倾向于认为民主党在众议院获胜的可能性较大，《国会山报》的选举合作伙伴Decision Desk HQ（DDHQ）估计这一概率为80%。
Polling firms have largely leaned toward a likely Democratic victory in the House, one that The Hill’s election partner Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) estimates with an 80 percent probability.
这一潜在结果很可能成为对特朗普总统重返白宫头两年的一次公投，类似于大多数中期选举结果，即在野党控制国会一院或两院的情况。
This potential outcome will likely stand as a referendum on President Trump’s first two years back in the White House, similar to most midterm election results when the opposing party takes control of one or both chambers of Congress.
特朗普还鼓励高投票率，敦促共和党选民“装作”他本人在选票上。总统在过去几周全国为候选人造势时，一直宣扬其政府的成就，但持续的民调显示，公众对其执政方式的不满情绪日益高涨，且认为他没有优先处理经济和生活成本等问题。
Trump has also encouraged a high turnout, urging GOP voters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot. The president has touted his administration’s successes while out stumping for candidates across the country in recent weeks, but consistent polling has shown growing dissatisfaction with his handling of the presidency and not prioritizing issues like the economy and the cost of living.
与总统选举年相比，中期选举的投票率通常较低。根据皮尤研究中心的数据，2020年和2024年总统选举的投票率在过去一个世纪中属于最高水平，分别为66%和64%。
Midterm elections generally see a lower voter turnout compared to years when there’s a presidential election. The 2020 and 2024 presidential elections say some of the highest turnout of voters in the last century, with rates at 66 and 64 percent, respectively, according to the Pew Research Center.
然而，2018年和2022年中期选举周期的投票率低于50%，皮尤报告称，分别为49%和46%。但2018年中期选举的投票率是自1914年以来的最高水平，而2022年的投票率超过了自1970年以来的任何一次中期选举。
The 2018 and 2022 midterm cycles, however, saw turnout below 50 percent, specifically at 49 percent and 46 percent, respectively, Pew reported. But the 2018 midterms saw the highest turnout rate since 1914, and 2022’s turnout exceeded that of any midterm since 1970.