期权交易员将 2026 年美国中期选举定价为一个相对常规、结果明确的事件 —— 但曼氏集团表示，11 月 3 日投票后结果若延迟揭晓，可能会让本已因政府借贷成本上升和人工智能担忧而紧张的市场感到意外。
Options traders are pricing the 2026 U.S. midterm elections as a relatively routine event with a clear outcome — but a delayed result following the Nov. 3 poll could surprise markets already on edge over rising government borrowing costs and AI jitters, according to Man Group .
曼氏集团称，在下周投票前，交易员的假设是选举将出现民主党的决定性胜利。这家全球最大的上市对冲基金及另类投资集团通过计算标普 500 指数期权，将 11 月 4 日（中期选举次日）的隐含波动率定价为平常交易日的约 1.2 倍。这比常规水平大约 20%，但大体与以往中期选举时的水平一致。曼氏表示，这一波动幅度约为总统大选期间典型定价的一半，而科技股财报、美国通胀数据和下一次美联储议息会议预计引发的波动会略小于此。@SP.1 3M mountain 标普 500 指数期货。
Ahead of next week's vote, traders are working on the assumption that the election will see a decisive Democratic victory, Man said. The world's largest publicly traded hedge fund and alternatives group calculated S & P 500 options to price about 1.2 times a typical day's volatility for Nov. 4 — the day after the midterms. That's about 20% larger than usual, though a level broadly in line with previous midterm elections. Man said this move is about half the size typically priced around a presidential election, while tech earnings, U.S. inflation data, and the next Fed meeting would be expected to cause slightly less volatility. @SP.1 3M mountain S & P 500 Futures.
曼氏引用的近期 Polymarket 赔率显示，民主党同时赢得众议院和参议院的概率为 66%，共和党全面获胜的概率仅为 8%。赔率和博彩平台不采用传统政治民调的方法，因此不能替代政治民调。结果如何影响市场根据曼氏集团的分析，民主党大获全胜可能会提振医疗保健和零售股。反之，可能会拖累资本市场类股票，如投资银行和券商股，以及在较小程度上拖累航空航天和国防股。
Recent Polymarket odds, cited by Man, give the Democrats a 66% chance of winning both the House and Senate, with chances of a Republican sweep at just 8%. Odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies used by traditional political polling, and therefore are not substitutes for political polls. How the result could swing markets A decisive sweep for the Democrats would likely boost healthcare and retail stocks. Conversely, it could weigh on capital markets stocks such as investment banks and brokers, and, to a lesser extent, aerospace and defense names, according to Man Group's analysis.
曼氏补充称，共和党全面获胜的组合可能预示着相反的市场结果。但结果延迟揭晓可能会打乱基于明确结果而定价受益的某些股票和板块的押注，进一步动摇本已紧张的市场。
A Republican-sweep basket would likely herald the reverse market outcome, Man added. But a delayed result could upend bets on certain stocks and sectors priced to do well on a clear result, further rattling already-on-edge markets.
“市场将中期选举定价为一个在很大程度上普通的事件，前提是结果在 11 月 4 日已知。”
"The market is pricing the midterms as a largely ordinary event, on the assumption that the result is known on 4 November.
“但这一假设存在风险，”曼群量化研究员亚当·基奥在10月27日的一份报告中表示。“众议院或参议院的控制权可能取决于少数几场胶着的竞选，而过去这些竞选的结果往往需要数周才能揭晓，期权市场似乎鲜有迹象显示已将此因素计入定价。”.VIX 1M mountain 芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数。基奥指出，2022年中期选举直到12月才确定参议院最终席位分布，而2020年参议院选举则直到次年1月佐治亚州决选结束后才确定参议院控制权，距离选举日已过去两个月。
That assumption carries a risk, though," Adam Keogh, quantitative researcher, systematic at Man Group, said in a note Oct. 27. "Control of a chamber can hinge on a handful of close races that in the past have taken weeks to resolve, and the options market shows few signs of accounting for this." .VIX 1M mountain CBOE Volatility Index. Keogh pointed to the 2022 midterms — which took until December to know the final composition of the Senate — and the 2020 Senate election, when control of the Senate was not determined until after the Georgia runoffs in January, two months after election day.
“如今，政府借贷成本处于多年未见的高位，且对人工智能的担忧情绪高涨，尚不清楚市场是否仍具备像以往那样消化此类冲击的能力，万一出现极不可能的计票争议升级情况。”
"Today, with government borrowing costs at levels not seen in many years and AI jitters running high, it is unclear whether markets would have the same capacity to look through such a shock, in the unlikely event that a contested count escalated."