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AI创始人想向公众赠送股份?不如送给社会保障AI founders want to give shares to the public? Give them to Social Security.

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Anthropic 正准备进行首次公开募股(IPO),据报道投资者对其估值为 1.5 万亿至 2 万亿美元,该公司表示将承诺拿出 5% 的股份(需经股东批准)注入一个新的公共利益基金,并承诺每当公司估值上涨 50% 时,再追加最多 2% 的股份。加上此前的承诺,公司大约五分之一的股份将被指定用于公共利益。

Anthropic, readying an initial public offering that investors reportedly value at $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion said it will commit 5 percent of its shares, subject to shareholder approval, to a new Public Benefit Fund, with up to 2 percent more for every 50 percent gain in the company’s value. With earlier pledges, roughly a fifth of the company is earmarked for the public good.

埃隆·马斯克的回应是:直接把股份分给公众。10 月 19 日,他承诺明年亲自这么做:向每个美国儿童赠送一股 SpaceX 股份,目前每股价值约 146 美元。

Elon Musk’s response: Give the shares directly to the public. On Oct. 19, he pledged to do it himself: one SpaceX share, currently worth about $146, to every American child next year.

他的做法比他自己知道的更接近正确。美国已经有一个机构为几乎每一位工人提供收入损失保障,并直接向这些工人发放款项:社会保障。但法律禁止社会保障持有股权;它只能持有联邦债务。

He is closer to right than he knows. The country already has an institution that insures nearly every worker against lost earnings and pays those workers directly: Social Security. But Social Security is not allowed to own equity shares; by law it may hold only federal debt.

国会应设立一个独立基金,接受任何公司捐赠的股权,将其配置为多元化投资组合,并将收益专门用于信托基金。加拿大的养老金计划、挪威的石油基金、阿拉斯加永久基金以及各州养老金体系都代表公众持有股权。为消除任何顾虑,该基金的治理结构应在设计上就做到“枯燥乏味”:没有政府董事席位,没有政治指令,并公布将每只股票逐步出售并转入宽基指数的时间表。

Congress should build an independent fund that accepts contributed equity from any company, holds it in a diversified portfolio and dedicates the returns to the trust funds. Canada’s pension plan, Norway’s oil fund, Alaska’s Permanent Fund and state pension systems own equity on the public’s behalf. To allay any fears, the fund’s governance should be boring by design, with no government board seats, no political direction and a published schedule for selling each stock down into a broad index.

Anthropic 和马斯克并非唯一希望公众分享 AI 红利的主体。OpenAI 4 月的政策文件提出设立一个投资 AI 公司并向公民分配回报的公共财富基金。《金融时报》7 月报道称,Sam Altman 曾提出拿出公司 5% 的股权作为主权财富基金的种子资金。从特朗普总统到参议员伯尼·桑德斯(无党籍-佛蒙特州)等政客都呼吁设立公共投资基金。

Anthropic and Musk are not alone in wanting the public to share in AI’s gains. OpenAI’s April policy paper proposed a public wealth fund investing in AI companies and paying returns to citizens. In July, the Financial Times reported Sam Altman had offered 5 percent of the company’s equity to seed a sovereign wealth fund. Politicians from President Trump to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have called for public investment funds.

这些提议都没有产生一个可运作的基金。相比之下,社会保障制度正在运行。它覆盖了几乎所有美国工人,去年底拥有2.6万亿美元储备,全部为特别发行的国债。但它资金不足且规模在缩水。受托人预测,养老信托基金将在2032年底耗尽,届时福利将削减22%。

None of these has produced a working fund. Social Security, by contrast, is up and running. It covers nearly every American worker and ended last year with $2.6 trillion in reserves, all in special-issue Treasuries. But it is underpowered and shrinking. The Trustees project the retirement trust fund will run out in late 2032, when benefits would be cut 22 percent.

需要明确的是,仅靠AI公司的股权承诺不足以解决资金缺口。按披露的估值计算,Anthropic的5%股权价值750亿至1000亿美元,OpenAI的提议约为600亿美元。该计划在75年内的资金缺口按现值计算为29万亿美元。

To be clear, AI equity pledges alone are not a sufficient funding fix. Anthropic’s 5 percent is worth $75 billion to $100 billion, and OpenAI’s offer about $60 billion, at reported valuations. The program’s 75-year shortfall is $29 trillion in present value.

但股票理应纳入社会保障的投资组合,就像任何退休账户一样。一个多元化基金如果年收益率比国债高2.5至3个百分点(处于社会保障精算师自身假设的范围内),并将收益再投资,按受托人的测算窗口,可将如今每投入的1000亿美元在现值意义上变为6000亿至近9000亿美元。

But equities belong in Social Security’s portfolio, as in any retirement account. A diversified fund earning 2.5 to 3 points a year over Treasuries (within the range Social Security’s own actuaries assume), with returns reinvested, could turn every $100 billion contributed today into $600 billion to nearly $900 billion in present value over the Trustees’ window.

参议员比尔·卡西迪(共和党-路易斯安那州)和蒂姆·凯恩(民主党-弗吉尼亚州)提出计划,借款1.5万亿美元为社会保障投资基金提供种子资金。我们认同他们追求更高回报的目标,但借款会带来融资风险。无论市场表现如何,债务都必须偿还,而新增借款会叠加在不断增长的联邦债务之上,正值长期国债收益率触及2002年以来的最高水平。

Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.) have a plan to borrow $1.5 trillion to seed a Social Security investment fund. We share their aim of higher returns, but borrowing creates financing risks. The debt comes due whatever markets do, and the new borrowing would pile onto a growing federal debt just as long-term Treasury yields have hit their highest level since 2002.

改为直接投入资金,这些融资风险就会消失。同等规模的资金可弥补三分之一至近一半的缺口,从而减少原本所需的增税和削减福利。

Contribute the money instead, and those financing risks disappear. The same sum could close a third to nearly half the gap, shrinking the tax increases and benefit cuts otherwise needed.

AI 股份应成为更大融资来源的催化剂,首先利用现有的联邦资产。财政部持有房利美和房地美的高级股份,摩根大通估计到年底将达到约 4000 亿美元,并拥有其普通股近 80% 的认股权证。官员们已提议在保持公司受托监管的同时出售部分股份。

AI shares should be the catalyst for larger funding sources, starting with existing federal assets. Treasury holds a senior stake in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that J.P. Morgan estimates will reach roughly $400 billion by year-end, plus warrants for nearly 80 percent of their common shares. Officials have proposed selling slivers while keeping the companies in conservatorship.

政府拥有的 2.61 亿盎司黄金按近期价格约值 1.1 万亿美元,且不产生收益。

The government’s 261 million ounces of gold are worth about $1.1 trillion at recent prices and earn no yield.

合计约 1.5 万亿美元,即卡西迪和凯恩希望在计入任何 AI 股份或认股权证之前借出的金额。

Together that is about $1.5 trillion, what Cassidy and Kaine want to borrow, before counting a single AI share or warrant.

华盛顿已允许在联邦项目中捐赠公司股票。去年国会为儿童设立了“特朗普账户”,财政部现在允许公司和慈善机构向其捐赠公开股票。如果儿童账户可以持有捐赠的股票,那么今天为 7100 万美国人以及几乎所有退休人员支付的项目也应如此。

Washington already allows donated corporate stock in a federal program. Last year Congress created Trump Accounts for children and Treasury now lets companies and charities donate public stock into them. If a child’s account can hold donated stock, so should the program that pays 71 million Americans today and nearly all the rest of us when we retire.

公司的报价可以附加国会采取行动的条件,这是一种美国慈善事业长期使用的策略。安德鲁·卡内基为近 1700 座公共图书馆建筑提供资金,但仅限于那些提供土地并承诺公共经费运营的城镇。在此情形下,它将为国会提供一个可以同意的方案:既不增加税收,也不削减福利。

The companies’ offer can be made conditional on Congress acting, a long-standing tactic in American philanthropy. Andrew Carnegie paid for nearly 1,700 public library buildings, but only in towns that supplied the land and committed public money to run them. Here, it would give Congress something to say yes to: neither a tax increase nor a benefit cut.

Anthropic 表示将在未来几个月披露其基金治理的更多信息。该公司现在可以承诺在国会建立相应工具后进行出资。国会可以将其纳入任何偿付能力协议,或单独设立。

Anthropic says it will share more about its fund’s governance in the coming months. The company can commit now to contributing if Congress builds the vehicle. Congress can build it as part of any solvency deal, or on its own.

社会保障是对一次重大经济动荡的制度性回应。最有信心认为下一次动荡即将来临的公司已自愿将股权置于桌面。公众应拥有一个账户来接收这些股权。首批出资的公司将为本世纪完成卡内基为公共图书馆所做的贡献。

Social Security was the institutional answer to a great economic dislocation. The companies most confident that another is coming have begun, voluntarily, to put equity on the table. The public should have an account to receive it. The first companies to contribute will have done for this century what Carnegie did for the public library.

埃夫蒂希斯·格雷戈斯-穆尔吉纳基斯是Kibu, Inc.的联合创始人。扬·亚罗是Helena的投资人,也是美国科学家联合会的顾问。

Eftychis Gregos-Mourginakis is co-founder of Kibu, Inc. Jan Jaro is an investor at Helena and an advisor at the Federation of American Scientists.

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