美国的人工智能热潮将进一步推高企业估值，因为Anthropic正准备上市，这将巩固美国公司在全球最有价值企业中的主导地位，并拉大与中国企业的差距。
The artificial intelligence boom in the United States is set to raise corporate valuations even higher as Anthropic prepares for a public listing, reinforcing the dominance of American companies among the world’s most valuable firms and widening the gap with Chinese firms.
Anthropic在最近一轮融资中的估值为9650亿美元，目标是以1.5万亿至2万亿美元的估值进行首次公开募股（IPO）。
Anthropic, valued at US$965 billion in its most recent funding round, is targeting an IPO valuation of US$1.5 trillion to US$2 trillion.
达到这一目标将轻松使其跻身全球市值前20大上市公司之列，并可能成为首家进入该榜单的前沿AI实验室。据CompaniesMarketCap数据，相比之下，没有中国企业——包括国有银行、石油巨头和互联网平台——进入前20名。
Achieving that target would easily secure it a spot among the world’s 20 largest publicly traded companies by market capitalisation, potentially making it the first frontier AI lab to enter the ranking. By comparison, no Chinese firms – including state-owned banks, oil giants and internet platforms – made the top 20, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
美国科技巨头主导榜单，英伟达（Nvidia）以5.26万亿美元的市值在周三位居全球第一。长鑫存储技术（CXMT）是中国排名最高的企业，市值为4706.2亿美元，其次是中国建设银行和腾讯控股。
US technology giants dominate the list, with Nvidia ranked first globally in market capitalisation at US$5.26 trillion on Wednesday. ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) was China’s highest-ranked firm, with a market capitalisation of US$470.62 billion, followed by China Construction Bank and Tencent Holdings.
估值差距部分反映了投资者对中美企业在快速演变的AI竞赛中的不同看法。但投资研究公司晨星（Morningstar）亚洲股票研究总监谭洛林（Lorraine Tan）表示，对中国公司的估值折让可追溯到五年前，当时北京的监管打压笼罩了互联网公司的前景。
The valuation gap partly reflects differences in investor perceptions of US and Chinese firms amid the rapidly evolving AI race. But Lorraine Tan, director of Asia equity research at investment research firm Morningstar, said the discount applied to Chinese companies dated back five years, when Beijing’s regulatory crackdowns clouded the outlook for internet companies.
这种折让意味着，中国公司每美元利润的估值往往远低于美国同行，反映了投资者认为中国企业风险更大。
This discount means Chinese companies often trade at much lower valuations per dollar of profit than their American counterparts, reflecting investor perceptions of greater risk.
与此同时，谭洛林表示，投资者担心AI支出“可能不会增加估值”，即不一定能为股东创造真实价值。
Meanwhile, investors are concerned that AI spending might “not be accretive to valuation”, Tan said, meaning it might not necessarily create real value for shareholders.
她补充道：“对AI回报的不确定性可能会在短期内限制投资者的兴趣。”
“Uncertainty over AI returns may limit investor interest for the near term,” she added.
这种分歧也体现在中美股市的表现上。今年以来，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了13.9%，而上海证券交易所以科技股为主的科创板——常被称为“中国的纳斯达克”——却下跌了4.5%。
The divergence is also evident in the performance of the US and Chinese stock markets. The Nasdaq Composite has risen 13.9 per cent so far this year, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s tech-heavy Star Market, often dubbed China’s Nasdaq, has dropped 4.5 per cent.
尽管“美股七巨头”——这一占据主导地位的美国科技公司群体——股价非同寻常地飙升，但担忧也已超越中国公司范畴，城堡投资创始人肯·格里芬上周在接受彭博社采访时警告称，可能存在一个人工智能泡沫。
Despite the extraordinary rise of the Magnificent Seven stocks – the group of dominant US tech companies – concerns also extend beyond Chinese companies, with Citadel CEO Ken Griffin warning of a potential AI bubble in an interview with Bloomberg last week.
谭女士表示，随着行业仍处于建设扩张阶段，半导体和设备公司是当下的直接受益者，其中包括英伟达以及亚洲市场龙头台积电、三星电子和SK海力士。
With the industry still in a build-out phase, Tan said semiconductor and equipment companies were the immediate beneficiaries, including Nvidia and Asian market leaders Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
她说：“中国在这一细分领域不具备行业领导地位，但值得注意的是，今年以来其芯片实体的股价整体表现强劲”，并以长鑫存储为例。
“China does not have industry leadership in this segment, but notably we’ve seen strong performances overall among its chip entities’ share prices this year,” she said, citing CXMT.
瑞士私人银行联合私人银行的高级股票顾问凌维森表示，在大语言模型、AI智能体、云服务及其他AI能力上的支出“肯定会压低近期盈利”，而投资回报率仍“不明朗”。
Vey-Sern Ling, senior equity adviser at Union Bancaire Privee, a Swiss private bank, said spending on large-language models, AI agents, cloud services and other AI capabilities would “certainly depress near-term earnings” while the return on investment remained “unclear”.
凌维森补充称，中国半导体供应链的很大一部分——包括芯片设计、晶圆代工、存储和晶圆制造——均在内地证券交易所以A股形式上市。
Ling added that much of China’s semiconductor supply chain – including chip design, foundries, memory and wafer fabrication – was listed in A-shares on mainland stock exchanges.
他说：“该行业必须应对美国的限制和制裁，这限制了其对国际投资者的吸引力。”
“The industry has to contend with US restrictions and sanctions, which limit its appeal to international investors,” he said.