拉加德将离开欧洲央行，留下的是在对抗通胀上取得的一场胜利、政策制定者之间恢复的同僚情谊，以及欧元即将迈入数字时代的前景。
Lagarde will leave the European Central Bank with one victory notched up over inflation, camaraderie restored among policymakers and the euro on track to join the digital age.
但她的行长任期也伴随着失误，从疫情期间债券市场的崩盘，到2022年收紧政策的迟缓启动。她拖沓的离任过程也让同僚们感到不满。
But her presidency featured stumbles too, from a bond-market debacle during the pandemic to a tardy start to tightening in 2022. Her drawn-out exit also irked colleagues.
拉加德如今将留下的挑战，与她当初面临的挑战同样艰巨，包括遏制新一轮通胀、如何推动一个长期被美国 overshadow 的经济实现增长这一难题，以及对其祖国爆发债券市场动荡的担忧。
Lagarde will now bequeath challenges no less daunting than those she faced, including taming a new bout of inflation, the headache of how to drive growth in an economy long overshadowed by the US, and the worry of bond-market turmoil erupting in her home country.
这位法国人在欧洲央行的遗产有待评判——此前她宣布将于2月7日离任，距离其任期结束还有近九个月。周四这一消息公布后数小时内，官员们在她任内最后几次会议之一结束后维持利率不变。
The Frenchwoman’s legacy at the ECB is up for debate after she announced her exit for Feb. 7, almost nine months before the end of her term. Within hours of that announcement on Thursday, officials kept interest rates steady following one of her last meetings in office.
“拉加德决定在任期结束前早早离任，增添了新的不确定性，”柏林国际管理学院金融讲师丹尼斯·沈表示。“继任者之争引发了新的问题：未来在抗通胀决心、金融稳定以及欧洲央行应对主权债券市场压力之间将如何平衡。”据德国总理弗里德里希·默茨称，欧盟已启动任命继任者的程序，遴选将在年底前完成。各国政府看来很可能选择西班牙人巴勃罗·埃尔南德斯·德科斯或荷兰人克拉斯·诺特。
“Lagarde’s decision to leave well before the end of her mandate adds a new layer of uncertainty,” said Dennis Shen, a finance lecturer at the International School of Management in Berlin. “The succession debate raises fresh questions about the future balance between inflation-fighting resolve, financial stability and the ECB’s response to sovereign bond-market stress.”The European Union has started the process to appoint a successor, a selection that will conclude before the end of the year, according to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Governments look likely to pick either Spaniard Pablo Hernandez de Cos or Dutchman Klaas Knot.
两位都是具备正统央行经验的男性候选人，这凸显出拉加德——一位没有此类履历的前政治家——在2019年欧盟激烈的讨价还价后成为欧洲央行首位女性行长时，是多么地打破了常规。
Both are male candidates with orthodox experience of central banking, underscoring how Lagarde, a former politician without that pedigree, very much broke the mold when she became the first woman to run the ECB after fraught EU horse-trading in 2019.
她很快就犯了错。2020年3月疫情暴发时，拉加德表示她的机构“不是为了缩小利差”，这在欧元区债券市场引发了动荡，似乎削弱了她的前任马里奥·德拉吉不惜一切代价维护欧元的承诺。
She soon tripped up. As the pandemic struck in March 2020, Lagarde caused turmoil in euro-zone debt markets by saying her institution was “not here to close spreads,” appearing to undermine the pledge of her predecessor, Mario Draghi, to preserve the euro at any cost.
这一错误迫使欧洲央行通过债券购买计划来纠正方向，该计划最终达到了1.7万亿欧元（合2万亿美元）。其中很大一部分至今仍留在央行的资产负债表上。
The error forced the ECB to correct course with a bond-buying program that eventually reached €1.7 trillion ($2 trillion). Much of that still lurks on the central bank’s balance sheet.
2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰引发了又一次重大考验。战争开始时，通胀率已经接近欧洲央行目标的三倍，但官员们又花了五个月才加息，并因此受到严厉批评。那次延迟的遗留影响至今仍在，促使了今年更快的加息反应。
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sparked another big test. Inflation was already nearly three times the ECB’s target when the war began, but officials took another five months to raise rates and drew heavy criticism for that. The legacy of that delay lingers, having motivated a faster hiking response this year.
“她最初的评论——‘我们不是为了缩小利差’——是一个错误，”总部位于法兰克福的中央银行研究中心联席主任伊曼纽尔·默恩奇表示。“而且在她的领导下，欧洲央行对通胀上升的反应太晚了。”相比之下，拉加德对2022年债券市场紧张情绪的回应——创建一种新的危机应对工具，在加息的同时防范财政担忧——可以说证明了一个决定性时刻，摆脱了前任的阴影。
“Her initial comment — ‘we’re not here to close spreads’ — was a mistake,” said Emanuel Moench, co-director of the Frankfurt-based Centre for Central Banking. “And under her leadership, the ECB reacted too late to the rise in inflation.”By contrast, Lagarde’s response to bond-market jitters in 2022, the creation of a new crisis-fighting tool to keep fiscal worries at bay alongside rate hikes, arguably proved a decisive moment that cast off the shadow of her predecessor.
该措施使欧洲央行拥有了迄今为止应对债券市场动荡的最复杂武器。周四被问及法国局势时，这位行长宣称，如果麻烦浮现，“我们有可用的工具来应对。”在拉加德领导下成功将消费者价格增长拉回2%的目标，是美国联邦储备委员会等同行未能做到的，尽管中东冲突制造了一个新问题。
The measure leaves the ECB with the most sophisticated weapon yet in its armory to cope with bond-market turmoil. Questioned on the French situation on Thursday, the president declared that, if trouble bubbles up, “we have instruments available to respond.”Success in bringing consumer-price growth back to its 2% goal under Lagarde is one that peers such as the US Federal Reserve haven’t matched, even if the Middle East conflict has created a new problem.
“起初虽犹豫不决，但欧洲央行随后果断应对，在不引发衰退的情况下将通胀拉回目标水平，”曾在美联储和德国联邦银行任职的默恩奇表示，“这值得肯定。”
“After hesitating at first, the ECB responded decisively and brought inflation back to the target level without triggering a recession,” said Moench, a former official at the Fed and Germany’s Bundesbank. “That deserves recognition.”
幕后决策流程的转变是拉加德留下的另一项遗产。她周四表示，自己将留下一个能够实现“业务完美延续”的机构。她从前任手中接过的管理委员会，当时正因前任毫不妥协的政策风格而公开反叛。拉加德最初以在法兰克福附近一家水疗度假村举行退思会起步，重新调整了各方关系。
A shift in decision-making processes behind the scenes is another legacy of Lagarde, who said on Thursday that she will leave an institution capable of “perfect continuity of business.”She had inherited a Governing Council in open revolt at her predecessor’s uncompromising style of conducting policy. Starting out with a retreat to a spa resort near Frankfurt, Lagarde reset relations.
“德拉吉就是法律；他不需要任何其他意见，”拉加德执掌国际货币基金组织时的幕僚长、后来领导该基金欧洲部的阿尔弗雷德·卡默说，“在拉加德的领导下，每个人都有机会发表意见，最终形成的政策也取得了成效。”彭博经济研究观点……“尽管外界预期债务危机之后会是一个较为平静的篇章，但拉加德的任期很快便接连遭遇全球性冲击的考验。从疫情到乌克兰战争，她通过优先强调团结与共识，带领欧洲央行度过了前所未有的动荡。”
“Draghi was the law; he didn’t need any other opinions,” said Alfred Kammer, Lagarde’s chief of staff when she ran the International Monetary Fund, who then led the fund’s European department. “Under Lagarde’s watch, everyone had a chance to weigh in, and the outcome was a policy that delivered.”What Bloomberg Economics Says...“Though expected to be a calmer chapter after the debt crisis, Lagarde’s tenure was quickly tested by consecutive global shocks. From the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, she has steered the ECB through unprecedented turbulence by prioritizing unity and consensus.”—Simona Delle Chiaie, chief euro-area economist.
——西蒙娜·德莱·基亚耶，欧元区首席经济学家。更多内容，点击此处。在员工层面，情况则不那么和谐，她推动女性晋升的努力也未达标，去年的五项目标中仅实现了一项。
For more, click here Things are less harmonious at staff level, and her drive to promote women fell short, with only one of five targets achieved last year.
与此同时，曾任法国财政部长的拉加德在政治领域的涉足产生了参差不齐的结果。最大的成就是对抗布鲁塞尔的游说机器，力挺数字欧元，并成功论证数字欧元是主权不可或缺的支柱。
Meanwhile the political forays of Lagarde, a former French finance minister, produced mixed results. The biggest achievement was in taking on the Brussels lobby machine to champion a digital euro, successfully arguing its case as an essential pillar of sovereignty.
她热衷于谈论政治，包括批评美国总统唐纳德·特朗普，这让一些同事和观察人士侧目。拉加德周四表示，她很乐意卸下这份工作所要求的“保持中立的义务”。
Her appetite to discuss politics, including criticisms of US President Donald Trump, prompted raised eyebrows among some colleagues and observers. It’s the “obligation of neutrality” of her job that Lagarde said on Thursday she will be glad to shake off.
同样，尽管这位行长成功让气候变化成为欧洲央行分析和银行监管的固有内容，但早期更积极地运用货币政策工具（包括更绿色的债券购买和贷款）的雄心已被缩减。
Similarly, while the president managed to ensure climate change became inherent to ECB analysis and banking supervision, early ambitions to use monetary-policy tools more aggressively, including greener bond-buying and lending, were scaled back.
拉加德遗产上可能的一抹阴影在于她离任的方式。在数月猜测之后，她漫长的告别让一些同事私下议论说，这看起来不太好看。
One possible cloud over Lagarde’s legacy is in the manner of her departure. Her long goodbye after months of speculation caused some colleagues to observe privately that it wasn’t a good look.
这一风波始于去年5月，当时有报道称拉加德正在考虑接掌世界经济论坛。她对此不予理会，但随后向彭博电视台透露，她原本以为这份工作任期五年。
The saga began in May last year, when Lagarde was reported to be considering taking over the World Economic Forum. She brushed that off but subsequently revealed to Bloomberg Television that she originally believed the job lasted five years.
“人们记住拉加德，很可能是因为她提前辞职的相关情形，”前欧洲央行官员伊格纳齐奥·安杰洛尼说，但他提醒道，“事后如何看待这件事，以及它在她的整体表现中被赋予多大分量，都还不确定。”由于这位行长的最后一天已经确定，她可能的继任者很可能是两位男士之一：现任国际清算银行总裁德科斯，以及前荷兰央行行长诺特。
“Lagarde will probably be remembered for the circumstances surrounding her early resignation,” said former ECB official Ignazio Angeloni, who cautioned that “the way this will be seen with hindsight, and the importance attached to it as part of her overall performance, are uncertain.”With the president’s last day set in stone, her likely successor may well be one of two men: De Cos, currently chief of the Bank for International Settlements, and Knot, the former Dutch central bank chief.
无论谁胜出，都将同时面临通胀背景和涉及法国的债券危机风险的双重考验，而4月开始的总统选举将使局面更加复杂。西班牙将于11月举行投票，意大利明年也将面临全国选举。
Whoever wins out will be tested both by the inflation backdrop and the danger of a bond crisis involving France, further complicated by presidential elections starting in April. Spain goes to the polls in November, while Italy faces a national vote next year too.
随着民粹主义候选人挥舞着可能考验欧洲央行框架和决心的政策，该机构将不再由一位政治家掌舵，但它摆脱政治的前景十分渺茫。
With populist candidates brandishing policies that threaten to test the ECB’s framework and resolve, the institution will no longer have a politician at its helm, but its prospects of escaping politics are faint.
至于拉加德，更深入介入法国国内话语的可能性看起来越来越大，尽管目前还不清楚这会在执掌世界经济论坛期间发生，还是更直接地在她祖国参与竞选活动。
As for Lagarde, the possibility of greater interventions in French national discourse looks ever likelier, even though it’s unclear if that will happen while running the WEF or more directly in campaigning in her home country.
“克里斯蒂娜知道法国的局势即将变得糟糕，”很了解她的前财政部长布鲁诺·勒梅尔说。“她有能力也有专长参与其中，并在未来几周和几个月里发挥作用。”
“Christine is aware that the situation in France is about to get ugly,” said former Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, who knows her well. “She has the skills and expertise to get involved and play a role in the coming weeks and months.”