
微软和Alphabet在周三晚间发布财报后,市场反应截然不同。吉姆·克莱默认为,原因归结为一点:财务纪律。谷歌母公司Alphabet的股价周四暴跌超过12%,有望创下史上最大单日跌幅。另一方面,微软股价在周四开盘时跳涨,随后在纳斯达克大盘走弱的背景下小幅下跌不到1%。两家科技巨头:一家正走向历史性暴跌,另一家则经历常规回落。
Microsoft and Alphabet are getting very different reactions following Wednesday night's earnings reports. Jim Cramer believes the reason for that boils down to one thing: financial discipline. Shares of Google parent Alphabet tumbled over 12% on Thursday, on pace for their biggest one-day drop of all time. On the other hand, Microsoft shares popped at Thursday's open, before slipping less than 1% amid broader weakness in the Nasdaq . Two tech giants: one headed for a historic drop and the other experiencing a routine decline.
在吉姆看来,关键区别在于微软能够在推进人工智能雄心并实现强劲增长的同时,控制住支出。这家云计算和软件巨头在所有关键指标上都超出预期,包括营收和每股收益。据FactSet数据,其Azure云业务按固定汇率计算同比增长48%,高于45%的普遍预期。与此同时,微软的自由现金流为186亿美元,环比仅下降10亿美元。
For Jim, the key differentiator is Microsoft's ability to keep spending in check while pursuing its artificial intelligence ambitions and delivering strong growth. The cloud and software giant beat estimates across all key metrics, including revenue and earnings per share. Its Azure cloud business also grew 48% year over year in constant currency, ahead of the 45% consensus, according to FactSet. All the while, Microsoft's free cash flow came in at $18.6 billion, down just $1 billion sequentially.
“我注意到的是,这是一种在人工智能方面有纪律的做法,”吉姆周四上午在CNBC上说。现在对比Alphabet,该公司本季度在许多关键指标上均未达预期,包括总营收、营业收入和调整后每股收益。该公司还出现谷歌搜索收入增长环比放缓,加剧了人们对其长期现金牛业务遭AI冲击的担忧。也有一些亮点:谷歌云收入同比翻倍,其Gemini应用现已成为公司历史上增长最快的产品。
"What I noticed is that this is a disciplined approach with AI," Jim said Thursday morning on CNBC. Now contrast that with Alphabet, which missed expectations on many key metrics in the quarter , including overall revenue, operating income and adjusted earnings per share. The company also saw a sequential deceleration in Google Search revenue growth, fueling concerns about AI disruption for its longtime cash cow. There were some bright spots: Google Cloud revenue doubled year over year, and its Gemini app is now the fastest-growing product in company history.
但这些积极因素与负面因素相比黯然失色,尤其是Alphabet的自由现金流进一步陷入负值区间,为负91亿美元。上一季度为流出58.6亿美元。该公司还指出,为支持其AI建设,2027年资本支出预计将上升。“不要花超过你必须要花的钱。”
But those positives pale in comparison to the negatives, especially as Alphabet's free cash flow fell deeper into negative territory at minus $9.1 billion. It was an outflow of $5.86 billion in the prior quarter. The company also noted that capital expenditures are expected to rise in 2027 to support its AI buildout. "You don't spend more than you have to.
吉姆说:“在这次Alphabet的电话会议上,我并不觉得情况是这样。我们现在开始想,‘等一下,他们原有的核心业务,难道不正被其他公司侵蚀吗?’我们凭什么就该轻易放过他们?”吉姆把这两家科技巨头比作《儿童文摘》杂志漫画中虚构的角色“古弗斯”和“加兰特”。在这个类比中,吉姆说微软是负责任的“加兰特”,而Alphabet则是不太自律的“古弗斯”。
I did not feel that was the case with this Alphabet call," Jim said. "We're supposed to give them a free pass when we now start thinking, 'Wait a second, this core business they had, isn't it being eroded by other companies?" Jim compared the tech giants to Goofus and Gallant, the fictional comic strip characters featured in the Highlights for Children magazine. In this analogy, Jim said Microsoft was the responsible Gallant and Alphabet was the less disciplined Goofus.
吉姆称赞的核心人物是微软首席财务官艾米·胡德,他同时将公司今年开局不利后重回正轨的功劳归于她和首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉。吉姆说:“我们没有强调首席执行官和首席财务官携手合作有多么重要,他们不仅能改变叙事,还能改变现实。”今年前六个月,由于担心公司可能在人工智能竞赛中落后,微软股价下跌超过25%。
At the center of Jim's praise is Microsoft CFO Amy Hood, whom he credited alongside CEO Satya Nadella for getting the company back on track after a rocky start to the year. "We don't emphasize how important CEO and CFOs are together to be able to change not only the narrative, but the actuality," Jim said. Microsoft shares had fallen more than 25% in the first six months of the year amid concerns that the company could be left behind in the AI race.
与赛富时一样,微软也面临担忧,即人工智能可能颠覆其基于席位的订阅业务。投资者还担心该公司在人工智能工具方面缺乏创新,尤其是其Copilot助手,与前沿实验室Anthropic和OpenAI不断推出的产品相比相形见绌。但微软在7月发布的第四财季财报中开始改变这一叙事,当时公司报告Azure收入增长加速,付费Copilot席位增加。
Much like Salesforce , Microsoft faced fears that AI could disrupt its seat-based subscription business. Investors were also worried that the company lacked innovation in its AI tools, particularly its Copilot assistant compared with what frontier labs Anthropic and OpenAI were churning out. But Microsoft began changing that narrative in its July fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, when it reported accelerating Azure revenue growth and an increase in paid Copilot seats.
同样重要的是,该公司当时的支出指引在我们听来十分悦耳。该公司与超大规模云服务同行拉开了差距,证明它可以在不提高资本支出展望的情况下投资人工智能。增长加速与支出自律相结合,助推了微软的反弹。从6月底的低点到周三收盘,该公司股价飙升约51%。如今,公司最新的财报再次满足这些条件,从而验证了那轮反弹。在吉姆看来,Alphabet未能展现出同样的自律。
Equally important, the company's spending guidance at the time was music to our ears. The company set itself apart from its hyperscaler peers, proving it could invest in AI without raising its capital expenditure outlook. The combo of accelerating growth and disciplined spending helped ignite Microsoft's rebound. Shares surged roughly 51% from their late-June low through Wednesday's close. Now, the company's latest earnings report validated that comeback by checking those same boxes once again. In Jim's view, Alphabet has failed to demonstrate the same kind of discipline.
尽管公司可以辩称,凭借其广泛的人工智能资产——包括定制AI芯片、云计算、Gemini以及搜索的受欢迎程度——它是定位最佳的超大规模云服务商,但吉姆对管理层的执行力感到失望。在吉姆的诸多不满中,他抱怨Alphabet一方面开始向外部客户销售其定制张量处理单元(TPU)机架,另一方面却不得不从第三方供应商租用计算能力。
While the company could argue that it's the best-positioned hyperscaler, given its wide range of AI assets — including custom AI chips, cloud computing, Gemini and the popularity of Search — Jim is frustrated with management's execution. Among Jim's bones to pick, he lamented the fact that Alphabet is beginning to sell racks of its custom tensor processing units (TPUs) to external customers, at the same time it's also having to rent computing capacity from third-party vendors.
他还认为Alphabet未能妥善地将YouTube变现。“他们靠云业务得救了,”他说。“如果没有云业务,那我们今天来的时候,股价会明显更低。”他后来补充说:“这是一个非常缺乏纪律的决策。我没有感受到你从艾米·胡德那里得到的那种纪律性。”尽管如此,吉姆告诫不要完全放弃Alphabet,并指出俱乐部与该股票的历史。
He also argued that Alphabet has failed to properly monetize YouTube. "They got saved by the cloud," he said. "If they didn't have the cloud, then we would come in today and the stock would be appreciably lower." He added later, "This was a highly undisciplined call. I did not sense the kind of discipline that you got from Amy Hood." Still, Jim cautioned against giving up on Alphabet entirely, pointing to the Club's history with the stock.
俱乐部此前在去年3月退出了我们在Alphabet的持仓,恰在股价因众多悬而未决的问题消散而大幅上涨之前。我们最终在12月以更高的价格重新建仓。这一经历表明,尽管吉姆目前感到沮丧,但他为何不放弃Alphabet。我们在周四早些时候将该股下调至相当于持有的评级,但我们不会敲响。吉姆说:“我们以前曾放弃过这家公司,那是一个非常大的错误。”
The Club previously exited our position in Alphabet in March last year, right before the stock went on a big run as numerous overhangs dissipated. We eventually reinitiated the position in December at higher prices. That experience demonstrates why Jim isn't giving up Alphabet despite his current frustrations. We downgraded the stock to hold-equivalent 2 earlier on Thursday , but we're not ringing the. "We've written off this company before, and that's been a very big mistake," Jim said.
“他们可以卷土重来,因为他们真的很聪明。”至于微软,吉姆仍然看涨,并认为该股还有相当大的上涨空间,暗示每股600美元是完全可能的。他将Alphabet目前的情况与他过去对微软的一些不满进行了类比。最终,吉姆把信任寄托在纳德拉和胡德身上,并继续持有该股。“事实证明,他们完全知道自己在做什么,”吉姆说。(吉姆·克莱默的慈善信托持有MSFT、GOOGL的多头头寸。)
"They can come back because they're really smart." As for Microsoft, Jim remains bullish and believes shares have considerably more room to run, suggesting that $600 per share is a distinct possibility. He drew parallels between Alphabet's current situation and some of his past grievances with Microsoft. Ultimately, Jim put his faith in Nadella and Hood and held onto the stock. "Turns out, they knew exactly what they were doing," Jim said. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long MSFT, GOOGL. )