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为什么中国的人工智能和科技热潮未能拯救其股市?Why isn’t China’s AI and tech boom saving its stock markets?

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2026年9月17日,从上海金融区一栋高层建筑上看到的东方明珠塔景象。A view of the Oriental Pearl Tower seen from a high-rise building at the financial district in Shanghai in Shanghai on September 17, 2026.

今年全球人工智能热潮虽帮助维持了中国经济势头,但仍无法抵消其国内困境,尤其是股市方面。

The global artificial intelligence boom that has helped sustain Chinese economic momentum this year still can’t offset its domestic woes, particularly in its stock market.

据彭博数据,自6月见顶以来,中国主要指数已跌超20%,跌入熊市区间。北京上周向交易所交易基金注资190亿美元,这是自2025年初美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税攻势冲击全球市场以来,最大规模的干预。

Since peaking in June, key Chinese indexes have fallen more than 20%, crossing the threshold for a bear market. Beijing responded last week by pumping $19 billion into exchange-traded funds, according to Bloomberg data, its biggest intervention since early 2025, when US President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive roiled global markets.

但分析师称,此类干预恐难遏制持续下滑,因消费支出疲软且存担忧AI泡沫可能破裂。周四,中国基准股指——沪深300指数收跌1%。

But analysts say interventions like this may do little to arrest the persistent slide, amid weak consumer spending and concerns over a possible bursting of the AI bubble. On Thursday, China’s benchmark CSI 300 index of stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed down 1%.

即便是帮助推动今年贸易顺差创纪录的国家级科技龙头,也未能逃过暴跌。上海科创50指数由中国本土AI与芯片龙头组成,自6月高点以来暴跌超40%。

Even national tech champions that have helped fuel a record trade surplus this year could not escape the crash. Shanghai’s STAR50 index, composed of China’s homegrown AI and chip leaders, has plunged more than 40% since a June peak.

与此同时,全球销量最大的人形机器人制造商宇树科技股价在8月上海上市首日飙升600%后已腰斩,存储芯片制造商长鑫存储上市三个月即成为上海市场权重第一大股,其估值自8月高点以来已下跌近30%。

Meanwhile, shares in the world’s largest humanoid robot maker by sales Unitree, which surged 600% in its Shanghai debut in August, have halved, and the valuation of memory chipmaker CXMT, which became Shanghai’s top weighted stock three months after listing, has fallen by nearly 30% since its August peak.

“抛售反映了拥挤AI交易的重新定价、国内需求疲软以及缺乏刺激措施,”外贸银行企业与投资银行亚太区高级经济学家吴嘉禧表示。

“The selloff reflects a repricing of crowded AI trades, weak domestic demand, and the lack of stimulus,” said Gary Ng, senior economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank.

股市崩盘也波及香港,基准恒生指数今年暴跌超12%。连同印尼和印度,中国股市已成为今年该地区表现最差的市场之一。

The meltdown of stocks also extended to Hong Kong, where the benchmark Hang Seng index has plummeted more than 12% this year. Together with Indonesia and India, stocks in China have emerged as the worst performers in the region this year.

2026年8月19日,在中国上海,参观者在宇树科技具身智能体验店观看人形机器人和机器狗。Chen Yuyu/VCG/Getty ImagesVisitors look at humanoid robots and robot dogs at the Unitree Robotics Embodied Intelligence Experience Store on August 19, 2026 in Shanghai, China. Chen Yuyu/VCG/Getty Images

吴先生解释说,香港面临的压力源于其对中国公司的风险敞口以及内地投资者的抛售。他表示,北京加强对跨境投资的审查以及收紧离岸税收规则,也导致了股市暴跌。

Ng explained that Hong Kong faces pressure through its exposure to Chinese companies and selling by mainland investors. Beijing’s increasing scrutiny of cross-border investments and tightening of offshore tax rules also contributed to the plunge, he said.

“如果没有解决根本关键问题的政策,任何旨在改善股市情绪的措施往往都是短暂的,”金融服务公司晨星的亚洲股票研究总监谭洛林表示。

“Any measure to address the stock market sentiment tends to be short-lived if there are no policies to address underlying key issues,” said Lorraine Tan, director of equity research in Asia at Morningstar, a financial services firm.

她说:“中国经济存在失衡,包括许多行业产能过剩,这些问题需要解决。今年财政支出的不足也是一个拖累,”她补充道,需要采取措施提振国内消费。

“There are imbalances in China’s economy, including excess capacity in many sectors, that need to be addressed. The lack of fiscal spending this year has also been a drag,” she said, adding that measures are needed to boost domestic consumption.

投资者和分析师警告称,债务推动的人工智能热潮如果突然崩塌,可能导致今年飙升的科技股在全球范围内暴跌,中国的股市崩盘为此提供了一个警示性故事。

China’s stock rout offers a cautionary tale as investors and analysts warn that an abrupt collapse of the debt-fueled AI boom could send tech stocks, which have soared this year, tumbling worldwide.

专家表示,目前中国的股市抛售不太可能引发显著的全球市场溢出效应。严格的资本流动管制限制了外国投资者参与中国市场,降低了动荡蔓延至国际的可能性。

For now, China’s equity sell-off is unlikely to trigger significant spillovers into global markets, experts said. Strict controls on capital flows limit foreign investors’ participation in Chinese markets, reducing the possibility that turmoil could spread internationally.

尽管如此,在中国国内,这次抛售正值最糟糕的时机之一,重创了一些散户投资者。

Still, within China, the selloff is hitting some retail investors at one of the worst possible times.

尽管全球对人工智能芯片和硬件的需求加速了中国今年的出口,并推动第三季度经济增长超预期,但停滞的国内消费和持续低迷的房地产市场仍在拖累经济。

While demand for AI chips and hardware worldwide has accelerated Chinese exports this year and lifted the country to expectation-beating third-quarter growth, stagnant domestic consumption and a prolonged housing market downturn continue to drag.

中国约70%的家庭财富与房产挂钩。但自五年前该行业开始瓦解以来,家庭储蓄一直被困在贬值的资产中,迫使部分资金流入国内股市。然而,随着北京近几个月收紧离岸交易限制以遏制资本外逃,内地散户投资者面临的选择越来越有限。

About 70% of Chinese household wealth is tied up in property. But since the sector began unravelling five years ago, household savings have remained trapped in falling assets, driving some capital into the domestic stock market. However, with Beijing tightening restrictions on offshore trading to curb capital flight in recent months, mainland retail investors face increasingly limited options.

“中国股市今年总体表现跑输大多数市场,这可能导致负面财富效应,进一步削弱居民信心,”荷兰银行(ING)大中华区首席经济学家宋莹(Lynn Song)表示。

“Chinese equities have generally underperformed most markets this year, and this could contribute to a negative wealth effect that further softens household confidence,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at Dutch bank ING.

上周在北京举行的一个金融论坛上,国家市场监管机构主席吴清承诺将优先考虑稳定,“竭尽全力维护资本市场安全平稳运行”。他补充道:“我们还将鼓励符合条件的上市公司加大回购力度、增持自家股份,给投资者带来更好的回报。”

At a financial forum in Beijing last week, Wu Qing, chairman of the country’s market regulator, vowed to prioritize stability and “do everything possible to maintain the safety and stability of the capital market.”“We will also encourage eligible listed companies to step up share buybacks and increase their holdings of their own shares, delivering better returns to investors,” he added.

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