大多数共和党候选人不愿谈论伊朗战争。相反，总统及其盟友正向选民推销另一种安全信息——美国军事实力带来的经济利益。
Most Republican candidates don’t want to talk about the Iran war. Instead, the president and his allies are pitching a different security message to voters — the economic benefits of American military might.
国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯在中期选举前的最后冲刺阶段，穿梭于俄亥俄州、威斯康星州等摇摆州，宣传重振国防工业基础。副总统JD·万斯在缅因州一家国防科技工厂宣称正在迎来“制造业复兴”。而唐纳德·特朗普总统罕见地前往巴尔的摩，宣布将建设一座用于自主潜艇的新船厂。
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has spent the closing stretch before the midterms crisscrossing swing states like Ohio and Wisconsin to promote a renewed defense industrial base. Vice President JD Vance declared a “manufacturing renaissance” at a defense tech factory in Maine. And President Donald Trump took a rare trip to Baltimore to announce a new shipyard for autonomous submarines.
他们的言论从未提及伊朗军事冲突的连锁反应，例如油价飙升或武器库存消耗。但这为政府提供了一个平台，以宣扬美国就业岗位，并将选民的注意力从一场陷入困境的战争的不确定性，转移到军事强权带来的经济繁荣上。
Their messages never mention the knock-on effects of the military conflict in Iran, such as surging gas prices or the depletion of weapons stockpiles. But they give the administration a platform to champion U.S. jobs and shift voters’ attention from the uncertainty of a floundering war to the economic bonanza of military strength.
“我希望所有美国人都能在椭圆形办公室，看着总统坐在‘坚毅之桌’后，对国防公司说：‘我不想要再多一个班次，’”赫格塞斯上周在俄亥俄州代顿说。“‘我想要一座新工厂。我想要两座新工厂。我想要三座新工厂。我想要3倍、4倍、5倍的产量。’” 这种努力的政治性质，强化了赫格塞斯与前任五角大楼掌门人的区别——前任部长不为候选人助选（而赫格塞斯今年这么做了），也不将信息传递的重点放在摇摆州。
“I wish all Americans could be in the Oval Office and watch the president behind the Resolute Desk look at defense companies and tell them, ‘I don't want one more shift,” Hegseth said last week in Dayton, Ohio. “‘I want a new plant. I want two new plants. I want three new plants. I want 3 times, 4 times, 5 times more.’”The political nature of the effort reinforces the difference between Hegseth and previous Pentagon chiefs, who did not campaign for candidates — as the Defense secretary did this year — or focus their messages on swing states.
虽然赫格塞斯过去一年开展了名为“自由兵工厂”的国防工业建设巡回行程，但最近几周他几乎只去战场州。
While Hegseth has spent the past year embarking on a defense industry buildup tour known as the "Arsenal of Freedom,” he has spent recent weeks almost exclusively in battleground states.
但考虑到这场战争的声望持续下滑，强调美国国防工业基础焕发新生是否奏效，目前尚不清楚。许多陷入胶着竞争的共和党候选人——从得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿到俄亥俄州参议员乔恩·赫斯特德——都避而不谈这场冲突，尽管大选后美国与伊朗之间可能重燃战火。
But it’s unclear whether highlighting a rejuvenated American defense industrial base will prove effective given the war’s spiraling unpopularity. Numerous Republican candidates in tight races — from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to Ohio Sen. Jon Husted — have avoided even mentioning the conflict, despite the possibility of renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran after the election.
“离大选不到一周了，你觉得他们还有足够时间放大这类信息吗？”一位国防官员说。和其他人一样，这位官员获准匿名，以便坦率谈论内部决策。“他们推迟重新介入伊朗事务，直到大选之后，试图淡化这一极不得人心的冒险行动及其经济后果带来的影响。”
“Do you think with less than a week there’s enough time for them to be able to amplify that sort of message?” said a defense official, who like others was granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal decisions. “They’re holding off on reengaging Iran until afterwards in an effort to dampen the impact of that deeply unpopular venture and the economic fallout.”
五角大楼在一份声明中表示，赫格塞斯“正在加速并扩大我们的国防工业基础。这从第一天起就是优先事项。”白宫则表示，政府正在突显其加强国家实力的努力。
The Pentagon, in a statement, said Hegseth was “accelerating and scaling our defense industrial base. This has been a priority since Day 1.”The White House said the administration was highlighting its efforts to strengthen the country.
“民主党毁了我们的军队；特朗普总统重建了它，并持续强化我们的国防工业基础，”白宫发言人奥利维亚·韦尔斯说。“特朗普总统和赫格塞斯部长正在释放‘自由兵工厂’，以恢复国防制造实力、提高生产速度并加快武器生产。”政府只剩下寥寥数天时间说服选民，共和党占据多数将改善他们的生活。但工业项目以周期漫长著称，这使得聚焦国防显得格外不寻常。
“Democrats destroyed our military; President Trump has rebuilt it and continues to strengthen our defense industrial base,” said Olivia Wales, a White House spokesperson. “President Trump and Secretary Hegseth are unleashing the Arsenal of Freedom to restore defense manufacturing strength, increase production speed, and accelerate weapons production.”The administration has only a handful of days left to convince voters that a GOP majority improves their lives. But industrial projects have notoriously long lead times, which makes the defense focus especially unusual.
一些宣布的内容似乎只是对多年前旧闻的重新包装，包括赫格塞斯前往代顿视察“末日飞机”进展，该合同最初是在拜登政府时期授出的。特朗普本月在俄亥俄州吹捧的一座潜艇部件维修中心，最早是由前民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗大力推动的，布朗今年正在竞选夺回该席位。
Some of the announcements appear to repackage years-old news, including Hegseth’s visit to examine progress on the “Doomsday” aircraft in Dayton, a contract first handed out during the Biden administration. A submarine components repair center Trump touted in Ohio this month was first championed by former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who’s running this year to reclaim his spot.
这种零售式的宣传新项目方式也带有一种经典的政治竞选色彩：高额支出能在国内创造就业。
The retail-style promotion of new projects also has a classic campaign note about it: High spending creates jobs at home.
“这和吹嘘任何其他项目或拨款没什么两样，”资深共和党策略师、共和党全国委员会前通讯主任道格拉斯·海伊说。“这让候选人可以谈论为本州或本选区取得了成果。”本届政府将国防建设与就业增长挂钩，尽管与伊朗长达八个月的战争成本已攀升至470多亿美元。
"It’s no different than touting any other program or grant,” said Douglas Heye, a veteran GOP strategist and former communications director for the Republican National Committee. “It allows candidates to talk about getting results for their state or district.”The administration has tied the defense buildup to job growth, even as the cost of the eight-month war with Iran has climbed to more than $47 billion.
特朗普和赫格塞思今年夏天宣布，五角大楼将在宾夕法尼亚州投资100亿美元用于武器生产——该州有几场决定性的选战——并创造4000个就业岗位。五角大楼本月同意出资建造一艘在缅因州巴斯钢铁厂建造的导弹驱逐舰，而缅因州共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯正面临一场艰难的连任之战。
Trump and Hegseth announced this summer that the Pentagon would invest $10 billion in weapons production in Pennsylvania — which features several decisive races —- and create 4,000 jobs. The Pentagon this month agreed to fund a guided missile destroyer built at Bath Iron Works in Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces a tough reelection fight.
“在我看来，这显然是交易性的，”一个摇摆州的民主党国会候选人说。“我的感觉是，鉴于中期选举如此临近，没有多少人——如果有的话——会相信这件事。”但如果民主党获胜，下一届国会可能没有多少意愿增加国防开支，包括特朗普1.5万亿美元的国防预算。
“It’s pretty transparently transactional to me,” said a Democratic congressional candidate in a battleground state. “My sense is not many people, if any, believe it at all given it is so close to the midterms.”But if Democrats win, the next Congress may have little appetite to boost defense spending, including Trump’s $1.5 trillion defense budget.
“（白宫）把注意力保持在国家安全基本盘上是有帮助的，”前总统巴拉克·奥巴马时期的陆军部长、现任航空航天工业协会首席执行官埃里克·范宁说。“但在影响国会方面，你能做的只有这么多。”国防开支的激增也不会直接转化为选民钱包里更多的钱，至少在短期内不会。
“It helps for [the White House] to keep attention on the national security base,” said Eric Fanning, Army secretary under former President Barack Obama and now CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association. “But there is only so much you can do to influence Congress.”A defense spending boom also doesn’t directly translate to more money in voters’ pocketbooks, at least in the short term.
“投资国防资金不如其他形式的经济发展高效——就是这样，”一名前国防官员说。
“Investing defense dollars is less efficient than other forms of economic development — full stop,” said a former defense official.
军事上的强调或许也能对选民中担忧长期经济安全的选民产生有限的影响。马凯特法学院周三发布的一项民调显示，仅16%的威斯康星州选民表示，与一年前相比情况有所好转，42%的选民表示情况变差了。这一比例自伊朗战争爆发以来一直呈下降趋势。
The defense emphasis may also carry limited sway with voters worried about their long-term economic security. A Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday found that just 16% of Wisconsin voters said they were better off from a year ago, and 42% said they were worse off. That number has dropped steadily since the start of the Iran war.
“这既是对战争本身的反对，也是对战争带来的经济后果特别不满，”马凯特法学院法律与公共政策教授、该民调负责人查尔斯·富兰克林表示。
“It's partly opposition to the war itself,” said Charles Franklin, a professor of law and public policy at Marquette who directed the poll. “But it's also especially dissatisfaction with the consequences that the war has had economically.”