马修·A·温克勒撰文：半个世纪的历史正与民意调查结果相互印证——民调显示，美国选民十多年来首次倾向于让民主党人掌管经济。不到24个月，58%的美国人便表示，在唐纳德·特朗普总统治下，他们的处境比在乔·拜登治下更糟，这纠正了此前的主流媒体叙事——该叙事在特朗普于2024年以未获多数普选票的情况下第二次当选后，宣称第46任总统拜登执政失败。事实证明，在1977年以来入主白宫的九位总统中，拜登治下的经济表现优于其前任和继任者中的任何一位。
By Matthew A. Winkler A half century of history is converging with public opinion polls showing US voters prefer Democrats as stewards of the economy for the first time in more than a decade. It took less than 24 months for 58% of Americans to say they're worse off under President Donald Trump than under Joe Biden, correcting the prevailing media narrative that declared the 46th president a failure after Trump was elected a second time without a majority in 2024. The Biden economy turns out to be superior to any preceding or following it among the nine occupants of the White House since 1977.
在过去50年里，只有比尔·克林顿接近复制拜登在彭博社汇编的15项衡量相对繁荣的经济和市场指标中的得分，这些指标权重相同。在前五名中，罗纳德·里根是唯一的共和党人，排在民主党人吉米·卡特和巴拉克·奥巴马之前。乔治·赫伯特·沃克·布什位列第六，表现平平，其后是截至目前第二任期内的特朗普。涵盖新冠疫情暴发和大萧条以来最严重衰退的特朗普第一届政府，以及包含2008年全球金融危机的乔治·W·布什两届任期，则排名垫底。
Only Bill Clinton comes close during the past 50 years to replicating Biden’s score among 15 economic and market-based measures of relative prosperity compiled by Bloomberg and weighted equally. Ronald Reagan is the sole Republican among the top five ahead of Democrats Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama. George Herbert Walker Bush is an also-ran at No. 6, followed by Trump so far in his second term. The first Trump administration that encompassed the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and the worst recession since the Great Depression, and the two terms of George W. Bush, which include the 2008 global financial crisis, bring up the rear.
诚然，特朗普第一届政府和拜登政府的经济表现都存在一些附加说明。特朗普的支持者可能会说，如果不是因为疫情，他的排名会高得多。但话说回来，特朗普淡化了这场危机，可以说这加剧了政府的应对措施和经济后果。而且，正是2020年通过的充斥着欺诈的薪资保护计划，导致当年预算赤字飙升至GDP的15%，而2019年底还不到5%。
To be sure, the economic performance of both the first Trump administration and the Biden administration economy come with some asterisks. Trump’s supporters might say his ranking would be much higher if not for the pandemic. Then again, Trump downplayed the crisis, arguably worsening the government’s response and the economic fallout. And it was the passage of the fraud-riddled paycheck protection program in 2020 that helped cause the budget deficit to soar to 15% of GDP that year from less than 5% at the end of 2019.
拜登的批评者可能会说，他受益于全球经济开放带来的巨大顺风。但话说回来，在经济学家认为再次衰退的可能性超过60%的时候，拜登任内实施的历史性财政刺激可以说阻止了经济重新陷入衰退——或者更糟。
Biden’s critics might say he benefitted from a massive tailwind as the global economy opened. Then again, the historic fiscal stimulus enacted under Biden arguably kept the economy from falling back into a recession — or worse — at a time when economists put the odds of another downturn at greater than 60%.
对于一个因显得虚弱和脱节而受到抨击的美国领导人来说，非农就业人数年增2.7%、名义年化国内生产总值增长7.8%、房主权益激增11.7%、平均时薪上涨5.1%，以及美元兑六种主要货币年升值4.8%，这些只是综合起来使拜登成为无可争议的领先者的部分经济指标。
For a US leader who was pilloried for seeming infirm and out of touch, the 2.7% annual increase in non-farm payrolls, 7.8% nominal rate of annualized gross domestic product growth, 11.7% surge in homeowners equity, 5.1% jump in average hourly earnings and the dollar’s 4.8% annual appreciation against six major currencies are just some of the economic measures combined that make Biden the uncontested leader.
尽管拜登因生活成本上升而受到抨击，但通胀率从未像从2022年6月9.1%的峰值降至2024年10月的2.6%那样，在如此短的时间内下降如此之多，当时《经济学人》杂志将拜登治下的经济描述为“世界的羡慕对象”。自那以后，特朗普任内的消费者价格指数加速上涨超过一个百分点，达到3.7%。
Although Biden was assailed over the rising cost of living, the rate of inflation never fell as much in so little time as it did from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 2.6% by October 2024 when The Economist magazine described the Biden economy as the "envy of the world." The Consumer Price Index under Trump since then accelerated more than a percentage point to 3.7%.
债券市场印证了拜登的第一名排名，政府、企业和其他借款人发行的债券回报率每年比全球基准高出2.4个百分点。（奥巴马以1.6个百分点排名第二，克林顿以1个百分点排名第三。）考虑到美联储在16个月内创纪录地加息11次，将目标利率从0.25%上调至5.50%，这一表现就更加引人注目。与此同时，美元在拜登任内的升值幅度是1977年以来历届总统任期中最大的。
The bond market validated Biden's No. 1 ranking, with returns for debt issued by the government, companies and other borrowers beating the world benchmark annually by 2.4 percentage points. (Obama ranks second at 1.6 percentage points and Clinton third, 1 percentage point.) The performance is all the more remarkable considering the Federal Reserve raised interest rates a record 11 times over 16 months, lifting its target rate from 0.25% to 5.50%. At the same time, the dollar strengthened the most during any presidency since 1977 under Biden. It was no coincidence that the budget deficit as a percentage of gross domestic product narrowed 8.4 percentage points, making Biden the prudential fiscal leader.
预算赤字占国内生产总值的比例缩小了8.4个百分点，这并非巧合，使拜登成为审慎财政的领先者。克林顿紧随其后，将该比率降低了7.3个百分点，将赤字转为盈余。奥巴马的预算赤字占GDP之比缩小了1.6个百分点，在财政责任方面位列前三名总统之末。
Clinton follows him by reducing the ratio 7.3 percentage points, turning the deficit into a surplus. Obama, whose budget deficit to GDP shrank 1.6 percentage points, rounds out the top three presidents for fiscal responsibility. Trump's record-low approval in recent public opinion polls was signaled in financial markets where US stocks are lagging behind the world equity benchmark by 1.4 percentage points annually, the second-worst performance among nine presidents and not much better than George W. Bush, when the American equities trailed by 1.6 percentage point yearly.
特朗普在近期民意调查中创下新低的支持率，在金融市场上也有所体现：美国股市每年落后全球股市基准1.4个百分点，在九位总统中表现第二差，仅略好于小布什时期，当时美国股市每年落后1.6个百分点。在特朗普第二个任期的前两年里，美国政府、企业和其他借款人发行的债券同样每年跑输全球基准0.6个百分点，这一表现仅好于小布什落后全球1.1个百分点的成绩。
Debt issued by the US government, companies and other borrowers similarly were losers to the global benchmark by 0.6 percentage point during each of the first two years of Trump's second term, an underperformance exceeded only by the younger Bush's 1.1 percentage point loss to the world. Even after Covid, the second-term Trump economy shows some deterioration from the first with personal income increasing 4.7% annually, ranking No. 7, compared with a 5.1% gain, or No. 6, during the 45th presidency.
即便在新冠疫情之后，特朗普第二任期的经济也显示出较第一任期有所恶化：个人收入年增长4.7%，排名第七，而第45任总统任期内为增长5.1%，排名第六。在特朗普第二任期内，房主权益年增长4.6%，排名倒数第三，不及特朗普第一任期时同一指标8.9%的水平。
Homeowner's equity expanded 4.6% annually during Trump 2, the third-worst ranking and an inferior result to Trump 1, when the same measure was 8.9%. Trump's dollar depreciated 3.2% annually against six major currencies during his second term, the third-worst in the rankings.
特朗普第二任期内，美元兑六大主要货币年均贬值3.2%，在排名中位列倒数第三。特朗普第一任期内，美元贬值3.1%。过去五十年间，只有三位总统任内美元走弱：特朗普、卡特（-3.6%）和小布什（-3.7%）。
America’s currency lost 3.1% during Trump's first term. Only three presidents during the past five decades presided over a weakening dollar: Trump, Carter (-3.6%) and the younger Bush (-3.7%). When Bloomberg's artificial intelligence tool is queried about the top 10 Trump-related subjects among S&P 500 Index earnings calls since 2025, tariffs and trade policy are “the single most dominant theme.”
当向彭博的人工智能工具查询2025年以来标普500指数财报电话会议中与特朗普相关的十大话题时，关税和贸易政策是“唯一最主导的主题”。彭博AI摘要显示，“特朗普2025年4月2日‘解放日’关税公告导致标普500指数大幅下跌，美国实际关税税率从2.6%飙升至峰值23%，随后回落至11%左右。消费品、工业、材料等各行业公司均提到关税驱动的成本上涨幅度在13%至30%之间。”
The Bloomberg AI summary shows “Trump's April 2, 2025 ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement caused major S&P 500 declines, with the US effective tariff rate surging from 2.6% to a peak of 23% before settling around 11%. Companies across sectors -- consumer goods, industrials, materials -- cited tariff-driven increases ranging from 13% to 30%.”Unlike any of the eight presidents preceding him, Biden inherited from Trump a once-a-century pandemic that led to 1.12 million deaths in the US alone.
与他之前的八位总统都不同，拜登从特朗普手中接过的是一场百年一遇的疫情，仅美国就有112万人死亡。当时，距2020年大选仅数月，能否从疫情和特朗普主政时期大萧条以来最严重的衰退中复苏，前景存疑。拜登随后推出了过去二十年中基本缺失的东西：财政刺激。
At that point, just months after the 2020 election, a recovery from both the pandemic and the worst recession since the Great Depression presided over by Trump was doubtful. Biden then delivered what had been largely missing for the previous two decades: fiscal stimulus. Biden's American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 ushered in the longest period of unemployment below 4% since the 1960s.
拜登2021年的《美国救援计划法案》开启了自1960年代以来失业率低于4%的最长时期。他2021年的《基础设施投资和就业法案》为道路和桥梁建设铺平了道路。2022年的《芯片与科学法案》引发了美国有史以来最大的制造业建设热潮，而2022年的《通胀削减法案》促使数千亿美元投资于新技术，据彭博AI称，这使佐治亚州凭借电动汽车电池工厂成为制造业重镇，亚利桑那州则首次将半导体行业薪资提高到比全国平均水平高出三个百分点。
His Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 paved the way for road and bridge building. The Chips and Science Act of 2022 sparked the biggest manufacturing construction boom the country has ever seen and 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act led to many tens of billions of dollars invested in new technologies that enabled Georgia to become a manufacturing juggernaut with electric vehicle battery plants and Arizona for the first time to pay semiconductor salaries three percentage points above the national average, according to Bloomberg AI. “If you look at the economy” before the pandemic “it was very low growth for 20 years,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon told the Economic Club of New York in April 2024.
摩根大通董事长兼首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在2024年4月对纽约经济俱乐部表示：“如果你看看疫情前的经济，‘那是20年来非常低的增长。’但如果你看看那之后的经济，‘一直在蓬勃发展。’”（这是戴蒙担任头号银行CEO职业生涯中首次用“蓬勃发展”一词形容美国经济。）他补充道：“美国消费者即使进入衰退，也比以前富裕得多……偿债比率非常低……他们的房价上涨了；股价也上涨了。”
“But if you look at the economy since then, it's been booming.” (It was the first time in his career as the CEO of the No. 1 bank that Dimon used the word “booming” to describe the US.) “The American consumer, even if we go into a recession, is much wealthier than before,” he added. “Debt service ratios are very low...their home prices are up; their stock prices are up.”
拜登经济惠及的美国人范围比过去五十年来任何前任政府都更广。根据美国人口普查局数据，2024年贫困率降至10.7%，当时为自1973年有数据以来的第二低水平。基尼收入不平等指数连续两年下降，这是自20世纪70年代初以来的首次。在拜登任内，截至2024年中期，家庭净资产增加了前所未有的32.1万亿美元。美国人用于偿还债务的收入比例低于10%，为自1980年有数据以来的纪录低点，且不包括2020年和2021年疫情期间许多还款被暂停的年份。
The Biden economy benefitted a wider swath of Americans than any of its predecessors during the past five decades. The poverty rate fell to 10.7% in 2024, at the time the second lowest in data going back to 1973, according to the US Census Bureau. The Gini Index of Income Inequality declined for two straight years, the first time that has happened since the early 1970s. Under Biden, household net worth increased by an unprecedented $32.1 trillion through mid-2024. Americans were spending less than 10% of their incomes servicing debt, a record low in data going back to 1980 and excluding the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 when many payments were put on hold.
由于疫情扰乱全球供应链，几乎所有东西的成本都变高了，因此这些成就大多未出现在媒体对2024年总统大选的报道中。直到几个月后，《经济学人》才提醒大家，拜登经济在全球首屈一指。而根据下周中期选举前最新的民意调查显示，美国人开始意识到，在民主党领导下，经济实际上并没有他们被引导相信的那么糟糕。
Most of these achievements were missing from the media’s coverage of the 2024 presidential campaign because the cost of just about everything was higher after the pandemic disrupted global supply chains. It took the Economist to remind everyone a few months later that the Biden economy was second to none in the world. And as the latest polls ahead of next week’s midterm elections suggest, Americans are coming around to the idea that the economy wasn’t really as bad under Democratic leadership as they were led to believe.