乍看之下，事情并不复杂。唐纳德·特朗普总统和国会里的共和党人于2024年11月当选，目的是修复经济。如今已是2026年11月，美国人对经济的感觉比两年前更糟了。所以，问题出在经济上，笨蛋。但就詹姆斯·卡维尔而言，事情并非如此简单。
At face value, it’s not all that complicated. President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress were elected in November 2024 to fix the economy. Now it’s November 2026, and Americans feel even worse about it than they did two years ago. So, it’s the economy, stupid. But with respect to James Carville , it’s not quite that simple.
美国经济状况出奇良好。失业率低——低到经济学家认为美国经济已达到“充分就业”。整体消费支出，作为美国经济的基石，一直大体保持韧性。而人工智能革命推动了一个如此强大的经济引擎，预计将成为美国现代史上最大规模的支出热潮。
America’s economy is in surprisingly good shape. Unemployment is low – low enough for economists to consider the US economy to be at “full employment.”Overall consumer spending , the bedrock of America’s economy, has remained mostly resilient. And the AI revolution has revved an economic engine so powerful it’s projected to become the largest spending boom in modern US history.
如果经济如此强劲，是什么让美国人在将共和党人送上权力仅两年后就对他们失去耐心？
If the economy is so strong, what got Americans fed up with Republicans just two years after they voted them into power?
通胀回归，选民将特朗普的标志性政策与自身的财务焦虑划上了等号。关税。对人工智能的宽松监管。严格的移民限制。尤其是对伊朗的战争。
Inflation is back, and voters drew a straight line connecting Trump’s signature policies to their financial anxieties. Tariffs. Lax AI regulation. Strict immigration restrictions. And especially the Iran war .
“要不是对伊朗的战争，这次中期选举将会截然不同，”海军联邦信用合作社首席经济学家希瑟·朗说。
“If it weren’t for the war in Iran, this would be a very different midterm election,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.
自2021年以来，美国人仍未适应……几乎所有东西……价格的显著上涨。
Americans still haven’t adjusted to the significant jump in the price of … well, pretty much everything … since 2021.
通胀在乔·拜登总统任期的最后一年已有所回落，但这不足以说服选民在2024年再次给民主党机会。而对高生活成本的愤怒，在特朗普重返白宫期间持续发酵。
Inflation had come back down to earth in the last year of Joe Biden’s presidency, but that wasn’t enough to convince voters to give Democrats another chance in 2024. And that anger about the high cost of living has festered throughout Trump’s return to office.
不过，在今年早些时候，特朗普和共和党人有一个相当有说服力的经济故事可讲。美国经济在1月份录得自2024年以来最好的就业增长月份。制造业岗位在14个月后首次转为正增长。
Still, Trump and Republicans had a fairly compelling economic story to tell in the early part of this year. The US economy in January posted its best month of job gains since 2024. Manufacturing jobs had turned positive for the first time in 14 months.
由共和党通过的《一项伟大而美丽的法案》带来的大额税务退税，开始出现在银行账户中。抵押贷款利率三年来首次跌破6%。股市不断创下历史新高，受AI股票提振。
Big tax refunds from the Republican-passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act were starting to show up in bank accounts. Mortgage rates had fallen below 6% for the first time in three years. The stock market kept hitting record highs, buoyed by AI stocks.
消费者通胀在2025年4月触及四年低点，2026年1月和2月再次逼近该低点。随后美国与伊朗开战，一切都变了。
Consumer inflation, which had hit a four-year nadir in April 2025, returned close to that low point in January and February 2026. Then America went to war with Iran, and everything changed.
2026年10月14日，顾客在谢尔曼奥克斯文图拉大道上的一家76加油站购买汽油，油价上涨至每加仑近7美元。Christina House/洛杉矶时报/盖蒂图片社油价飙升至四年高点。柴油价格创下历史新高。选举日的汽油价格从未如此昂贵。
Customers buy gasoline at a 76 gas station on Ventura Boulevard in Sherman Oaks as prices rise to nearly $7 a gallon on October 14, 2026. Christina House/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images Oil prices surged to four-year highs . Diesel prices hit a record . And gas prices had never been this expensive on an Election Day.
美国人可能讨厌通胀，但他们对高油价尤其愤怒。油价在城里的巨大广告牌上随处可见，加满一箱油每周都在提醒他们多花了多少钱：据布朗大学的研究人员称，自战争开始以来，高汽油和柴油价格 alone 就给平均美国家庭增加了1150美元的成本。
Americans may hate inflation, but they get particularly irate about high fuel prices. Gas prices are plastered on giant billboards all over town, and filling a tank serves as a weekly reminder about how much more they’re shelling out: High gas and diesel prices alone have added $1,150 in costs for the average US household since the start of the war, according to Brown University researchers .
随着燃油价格上涨，债券收益率飙升，抵押贷款利率也随之上升——最近以三年来最快的速度上涨。
As fuel prices rose, bond yields surged, and so too did mortgage rates – recently rising at their fastest pace in three years.
在工资涨幅连续三年超过物价涨幅之后，这一趋势在3月逆转。反弹的通胀一直在侵蚀工人的实际收入——自特朗普重返白宫以来，平均美国人的实际工资已有所下降。
After three straight years of paycheck gains outpacing price hikes, that trend kicked into reverse in March. Rebounding inflation has been eating into workers’ take-home pay ever since – and the average American’s real pay has shrunk since Trump has been back in office.
美国人对特朗普第一任期内的经济怀有美好回忆，这并不奇怪。在特朗普1.0期间的每一个时间点，美国人辛苦挣来的美元都比物价更有价值——在他执政的头四年里，他们的工资涨幅几乎是通胀涨幅的两倍。
It’s not a surprise that Americans had fond memories of the economy under Trump’s first term. At every point during Trump 1.0, Americans’ hard-earned dollars stretched further than prices – their pay gains nearly doubled the pace of inflation throughout his first four years in office.
这就是为什么CNN在2024年10月对美国民众的民调显示，15个百分点的受访者认为特朗普比副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯更能妥善管理经济。这并不令人意外：在拜登退出竞选前的最后一次CNN民调中，他对经济的净支持率为-31个百分点。
That’s why Americans polled by CNN in October 2024 favored Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris as a better custodian of the economy by 15 percentage points. No shock there: Biden’s net approval on the economy was -31 points in the final CNN poll taken before he dropped out of the race.
特朗普的表现现在比拜登更差，差距巨大：根据CNN在10月的一项民调，他对经济的净支持率为-46个百分点。
Trump’s marks are now worse than Biden’s. By a wide margin: His net approval on the economy is -46 points, according to an October CNN poll.
特朗普2.0与特朗普1.0截然不同。对许多美国人来说，似乎生活成本正在失控，美国梦遥不可及。
Trump 2.0 has been a completely different story than Trump 1.0. For many Americans, it seems like costs are spiraling out of control and the American Dream is unattainable.
特朗普政府和国会共和党人将他们继承的糟糕财政状况归咎于民主党。但特朗普的一些政策——尤其是他不受欢迎的战争——显然使美国人的生活成本更加糟糕。
The Trump administration and congressional Republicans have laid blame at Democrats’ feet for the poor state of financial affairs they inherited. But some of Trump’s policies – especially his unpopular war – clearly made Americans’ cost of living worse.
不仅仅是汽油价格，汽油价格使人们的开支每月增加了约75美元。还有其他选民与特朗普和共和党联系在一起的成本——其中一些成本使他们的账单每月增加数百美元。例如：共和党人未能延长《平价医疗法案》在2025年的增强补贴，导致今年奥巴马医保的月保费平均上涨58%。
It’s not just gas prices, which have added about $75 a month to people’s expenses. It’s other costs that voters associate with Trump and the Republicans – some of which are adding hundreds of dollars a month to their bills. For example: Republicans’ failure to extend the Affordable Care Act enhanced subsidies in 2025 sent monthly Obamacare premiums up 58%, on average, for this year.
特朗普第二任期内，电费上涨了8.7%。特朗普一直是人工智能无限制增长的最大倡导者之一。
Electricity costs jumped 8.7% during Trump’s second term. Trump has been among the biggest champions of unfettered growth for AI.
特朗普的移民政策和关税推高了汽车维修成本，自特朗普上任以来，汽车维修成本飙升了12.3%。这些政策还使房屋建造商的成本上升了13.3%。
Trump’s immigration policies and tariffs have raised the cost of auto repairs , which surged 12.3% since Trump took office. They also sent homebuilders’ costs up by 13.3%.
根据税务基金会的数据，特朗普的关税今年给平均每个美国家庭增加了820美元的税收。
Trump’s tariffs added $820 in taxes for the average American household this year, according to the Tax Foundation.
“就算为了争论起见，假设拜登完全搞砸了：那也绝不能开脱特朗普，”芝加哥大学研究财富不平等和流动性的经济学家史蒂文·杜尔劳夫说。“特朗普对通胀的管理糟糕透顶。选民必须将责任归于政府的政策。”
“Let’s say, for the sake of argument Biden totally screwed up: That in no way exonerates Trump,” said Steven Durlauf, an economist at the University of Chicago who researches wealth inequality and mobility. “Inflation has been badly managed by Trump. Voters have to place responsibility with the administration’s policies.”
所有证据都表明，选民确实这样做了。这也是特朗普所在的共和党在周二的中期选举中遭遇重挫的重要原因之一。通胀只是故事的一部分。许多美国人感觉经济把他们甩在了后面。
All the evidence points to the voters doing just that. That’s a big reason why Trump’s Republican party took a beating in Tuesday’s midterm election. Inflation is only part of the story. Many Americans feel like the economy has left them behind.
K型经济部分解释了这一现象：拥有股票和房产的较富裕美国人，对上涨成本的抵御能力远强于越来越多靠月薪过活的中低收入美国人。
The K-shaped economy accounts for some of that: Wealthier Americans with money in the stock market and who own a home are significantly more immune to rising costs than less-affluent Americans who are increasingly living paycheck to paycheck .
问题的很大一部分在于，缺乏实现“美国梦”的可行选择：儿童保育和住房供应严重不足，让许多人望而却步，也让一些人即使有能力也无法获得。“中产阶级理想正变得越来越遥不可及，”杜尔劳夫说。
A big part of the problem is the lack of available options to achieve the American Dream: A massive undersupply of childcare options and housing have priced out many folks and have denied access for some who can. “The middle-class ideal is becoming increasingly unobtainable,” said Durlauf.
就业市场也正变得如此。虽然仍相对强劲，但就业绝非像疫情后初期那样火爆。大规模裁员尚未成为常态，但对于没有工作的人来说，投递的简历仿佛石沉大海。
The same is becoming true of the job market. Although still relatively strong, jobs are by no means booming like they had been in the immediate post-pandemic years. Mass layoffs haven’t become the norm, but for folks without a job, applications feel like they’re going into the ether .
“低雇佣、低裁员的就业市场，换个说法就是缺乏机会的就业市场，”朗说。在这个经济环境下，许多美国人只是感到停滞不前。
“Another way to say low-hire, low-fire job market is lack-of-opportunity job market,” Long said. In this economy, many Americans just feel stuck.