字号·· | 护眼
美国消费者新闻与商业频道

经济曾助特朗普重返权力,如今却成其滑铁卢The economy brought Trump back to power. Now it's his downfall

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

2024年,唐纳德·特朗普竞选美国最高职位时,经常将国家的经济焦虑归咎于民主党人。

As President Donald Trump campaigned for the nation's highest office in 2024, he regularly blamed Democrats for the country's economic anxiety.

在美国各地的竞选活动中,特朗普频频询问选民,他们的生活是否比四年前更好。当时,他的这一信息似乎奏效了:在一场以通胀和生活成本为核心的选举中,特朗普赢下了所有摇摆州以及全国普选票。

During campaign stops across the U.S., Trump frequently asked voters if they were better off than they were four years prior. At the time, his message appeared to land: In an election centered on inflation and the cost of living, Trump won every swing state and the nationwide popular vote.

两年后,同样为这些餐桌上的生计问题所困的选民,夺走了他的政党在华盛顿以及全国各州的很大一部分权力。

Two years later, voters grappling with those same kitchen-table issues took away much of his party's power in Washington and in states across the country.

在周二的中期选举中,民主党掀起了一场历史性的蓝色浪潮,从战场州的国会席位到共和党长期把持的州长职位,无一不被翻转。民主党现在将同时控制众议院和参议院,终结了共和党在联邦政府中一党独揽三权的局面。

Democrats rode a blue wave of historic proportions in Tuesday's midterm election to flip everything from battleground congressional seats to long-held Republican governorships. The Democratic Party will now have control of both the House and Senate, ending the Republican Party's trifecta of power in the federal government.

在CNBC选民民调中,近十分之九的选民表示,生活成本是他们投票选举国会议员的关键或重要因素。受访者将经济列为中期选举期间国家面临的最重要问题,排在民主状况和移民等议题之前。每四名受访者中就有三人将经济评为“糟糕”或“不太好”,仅有2%的人称其“极好”。而或许最能说明问题的是:不到五分之一的选民表示,其家庭财务状况比两年前更好。

Nearly nine out of 10 voters in the CNBC Voter Poll said the cost of living was a crucial or major factor in their vote for Congress. Participants in the poll ranked the economy as the most important issue facing the country during the midterm election, ahead of topics like the state of democracy and immigration. Three out of every four survey participants rated the economy as "poor" or "not so good," compared with just 2% who described it as "excellent." And perhaps most telling of all: Fewer than one out of every five voters said their family's financial standing was better than it was two years ago.

他们的不满很大程度上集中在特朗普本人身上,约三分之二的选民表示,他的政策恶化了国家的经济状况。

Much of their dissatisfaction was centered on Trump himself, with about two out of every three voters saying his policies worsened economic conditions in the country.

穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示:“归根结底是经济问题。大多数美国人正艰难应对高通胀,而且这种情况已经持续相当长一段时间了,他们就是感到愤怒。”周二的选举是在与伊朗的战争背景下进行的,这场战争在政治上不受欢迎,并加剧了普通美国人面临的通胀压力。CNBC选民调查发现,近四分之三的人表示,这场战争是他们投票选举国会议员的关键或主要因素。

"It was all about the economy," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "Most Americans are struggling with the high inflation and have been for quite some time, and they're just angry." Tuesday's election played out against the backdrop of a war with Iran that has been politically unpopular and exacerbated the inflationary pressures facing everyday Americans. The CNBC Voter Poll found nearly three out of every four people said the war was a crucial or major factor in their vote for Congress.

特朗普对福克斯新闻表示,选民们大概对汽油价格飙升感到不满,尽管他们总体上认同对伊朗采取军事行动的必要性。副总统JD·万斯在社交媒体上表示,一些在2024年支持他和特朗普的选民,可能因为这场战争而在中期选举中支持了民主党人。

Trump told Fox News that voters were presumably unhappy with the surge in gas prices, even if they generally agreed with the need for military action against Iran. Vice President JD Vance said on social media that some voters who backed him and Trump in 2024 likely supported Democrats in the midterms as a result of the war.

据AAA数据,周二美国司机平均每加仑汽油支付约4.15美元,至少是2000年以来任何中期选举或总统选举投票日中最高的。过去一年,由于中东冲突重创全球原油贸易,汽油价格飙升了约37%。

U.S. drivers paid about $4.15 for an average gallon of gas on Tuesday, the highest of any midterm or presidential election day since at least 2000, according to AAA. Gas prices have surged about 37% over the past year as the Middle East conflict crippled the global crude trade.

燃油价格追踪平台GasBuddy的石油分析主管帕特里克·德哈恩表示:“美国发出了非常明确的信号。在选举日油价处于前所未有的高位之际举行选举,这会让消费者产生大量不满情绪。”根据赞迪的分析,自伊朗战争开始以来,汽油和其他能源产品价格上涨已使普通美国家庭损失近1230美元。这场冲突给美国消费者带来的经济痛苦还蔓延到了其他领域。赞迪表示,借贷成本上升和军事服务扩大又使家庭额外损失了900多美元。

"America sent a very clear message," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, a fuel price tracking platform. "Going into an election with prices that on Election Day have never been higher is something that garners a lot of frustration from consumers." Higher prices for gas and other energy products have cost the average American household nearly $1,230 since the start of the Iran war, according to an analysis from Zandi. The financial pain felt by U.S. consumers from the conflict has spilled into other areas. Rising borrowing costs and expanded military services roughly cost households more than $900 in addition, according to Zandi.

消费者价格指数是美国劳工统计局追踪的一篮子广泛商品和服务,在与伊朗的战争期间,该指数重新加速上涨。近几个月来,消费者价格的涨幅超过了工资增长,导致消费者的购买力下降。

The consumer price index, a broad basket of goods and services tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, reaccelerated during the war with Iran. Increases in consumer prices have outpaced wage gains in recent months, leaving consumers with less purchasing power.

柴油是卡车司机和火车使用的燃料,其价格攀升至历史纪录,运输业高管称这感觉“像科幻小说”。在最新的生产者价格指数报告中,美国劳工统计局表示,柴油成本上涨推高了许多商品的价格。

Prices for diesel, the fuel type used by truckers and trains, climbed to records that transportation executives have said feel "like science fiction." In the latest producer price index report, the BLS said that rising diesel costs pushed up prices for many goods.

CNBC选民调查发现,超过五分之三的人认为特朗普的政策导致了物价上涨。近九成的人表示,他们对公用事业、食品和石油等多种商品的价格非常或有些担忧。该调查是多家新闻机构合作开展的,基于约10万次通过电话、在线以及在各投票点面对面进行的访谈,误差幅度为0.6%。

The CNBC Voter Poll found more than three out of every five people believed that Trump's policies led to higher prices. Almost nine out of 10 said they were very or somewhat concerned about the prices for a variety of goods such as utilities, food and oil. The poll was a collaborative effort across several news organizations that drew on about 100,000 interviews conducted by phone, online and in-person at polling locations with a margin of error of 0.6%.

特朗普接手的是一个正走出疫情的经济体,当时它陷入了“氛围衰退”——这个词用来描述消费者信心低迷与经济基本面良好之间的脱节。如今,消费者价格正处于有记录以来高于理想通胀读数持续时间最长的阶段之一,普通美国人的经济情绪比以往更糟。

Trump took over an economy coming out of the pandemic that was caught in a "vibecession," the term used to describe the disconnect between sour consumer confidence and positive economic fundamentals. With consumer prices now on one of their longest streaks of higher-than-preferred inflation readings on record, the average American's economic sentiment is even worse today.

密歇根大学2026年的消费者信心调查跌至其七十年历史中的最低水平。与此同时,世界大型企业联合会表示,其9月份的消费者信心指标降至14年来的低点。

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey in 2026 fell to the worst levels in its seven-decade history. The Conference Board, meanwhile, said its consumer confidence gauge in September slid to 14-year lows.

乔治城大学研究行为经济学的教授弗朗切斯科·达昆托表示,通胀将选民推向了“崩溃点”。“如果消费者变成愤怒的选民,他们就会投票反对现状——在这种情况下,就是反对特朗普政府。”在美国于2月下旬对伊朗开战之前,经济学家和货币政策制定者就已对特朗普的政策可能给经济带来的影响发出警告。

Inflation pushed voters to a "breaking point," said Francesco D'Acunto, a Georgetown University professor who researches behavioral economics. "If consumers become angry voters, they vote against the status quo — in this case, the Trump administration." Before the U.S. began its war with Iran in late February, economists and monetary policymakers were already sounding the alarm about what Trump's policies could mean for the economy.

特朗普将其全面且大幅加征关税的计划宣传为重振美国制造业的手段,但该政策令金融市场震荡,并引发了潜在衰退的前景。纽约联邦储备银行的研究人员表示,如果不是特朗普的关税——其中许多后来被最高法院推翻——许多消费品价格本会下降。

Trump pitched his plan for broad and steep tariffs as a way to revive domestic manufacturing, but the policy sent financial markets reeling and raised the prospect of a potential recession. Researchers at the New York Federal Reserve said that many consumer prices would have fallen if not for Trump's tariffs, many of which were later struck down by the Supreme Court.

在CNBC选民调查中,64%的人表示特朗普的关税政策损害了他们所在地区的经济。仅有14%的人表示这些政策起到了帮助作用。

In the CNBC Voter Poll, 64% said Trump's tariff policies hurt the economy in their area. Just 14% said they helped.

特朗普的白宫还监督了在大城市进行的大规模驱逐行动,这些行动引发了大规模抗议,并有两位美国公民死于联邦移民执法人员之手。宾夕法尼亚大学的一项研究发现,经历移民激增的城市总体上人流减少,消费支出损失达数十亿美元。

Trump's White House also oversaw mass deportations in major cities that gave way to large-scale protests and the death of two U.S. citizens by federal immigration agents. A University of Pennsylvania study found that the cities experiencing immigration surges collectively saw decreasing foot traffic and billions of dollars in lost consumer spending.

根据CNBC选民调查,约五分之三的选民表示他们不认可移民和海关执法局履行职责的方式,并认为特朗普政府在该问题上做得太过头了。尽管如此,选民更倾向于表示共和党在处理移民问题上表现更好。

About three out of five voters said they disapproved of how Immigration and Customs Enforcement handled its job and that the Trump administration had gone too far on the issue, according to the CNBC Voter Poll. Still, voters were more likely to say the Republican Party was better at handling immigration.

诚然,特朗普白宫的一些政策获得了更好的反响。美国国税局在10月表示,在特朗普的“大而美法案”通过后,平均退税金额增长了11%。所谓的“特朗普账户”让父母可以利用政府和捐赠资金为孩子积累储蓄。

To be sure, some policies under Trump's White House have been better received. The Internal Revenue Service said in October that the average tax refund grew by 11% following the passage of Trump's "big beautiful bill." So-called Trump Accounts are allowing parents to tap into government and donor funds to build nest eggs for children.

但周二,选民们表明,随着伊朗战争持续、通货膨胀挤压钱包,生活成本可负担性仍然是首要关切。与2024年总统选举相比,改变的是他们相信谁能解决这个问题。

But on Tuesday, voters showed that affordability remained a leading concern as the Iran war continues and inflation pinches pocketbooks. What changed compared with the 2024 presidential election was who they believed could fix it.

2024年,更多选民表示他们认为特朗普比前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯更有能力处理经济问题。本周,选民们表示民主党人比共和党人更有能力处理经济问题。

In 2024, more voters said they thought Trump was better equipped to handle the economy than former Vice President Kamala Harris. This week, voters said Democrats were better equipped than Republicans to handle the economy.

但该党还有很多工作要做。在CNBC选民调查中,十分之七的受访者表示,他们觉得美国经济体系总体上偏向富人。

But the party will have a lot of work to do. Seven out of 10 respondents in the CNBC Voter Poll said they felt the U.S. economic system generally favored the wealthy.

“我们非常清楚是什么让美国人感到不满,”曾为两党政客提供建议的赞迪说。“两年后还有一场选举。希望政策制定者们正在倾听这一切。”

"We know pretty clearly what is making Americans upset," said Zandi, who has advised politicians from both parties. "There's another election coming up in two years. Hopefully, policymakers are listening to all this."

阅读媒体原文 ↗