
美国民众对高昂生活成本的长期不满在周二晚间爆发,重塑了全国政治版图。在经历了两年物价上涨、住房危机加剧以及加油的日常之痛后,选民果断将民主党推上了众议院和参议院的权力之位。
Americans’ long-simmering frustrations over the high cost of living boiled over Tuesday night to rearrange the nation’s political map. Voters decisively swept Democrats to power in the House and Senate after two years of rising prices, a deepening housing crisis and the everyday pain of filling up a gas tank.
“我们就是受够了,”64岁的缅因州刘易斯顿居民罗恩·贝鲁贝说。他在2020年投票支持缅因州共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯,但今年把票投给了她最终获胜的民主党挑战者特洛伊·杰克逊。“很多人都受够了唐纳德·特朗普。他们负担不起。他们什么都负担不起。”在美联社进行的选民民调中,约39%的人表示经济是该国面临的最重要单一问题,近90%的人表示生活成本是他们投票的关键或主要因素。
“We’re just fed up,” said Ron Berube, a 64-year-old Lewiston, Maine, resident, who voted for Sen. Susan Collins (R., Maine) in 2020 but this year voted for her victorious Democratic challenger, Troy Jackson. “A lot of people are sick of Donald Trump. They can’t afford it. They can’t afford anything.”Among voters polled by the Associated Press, roughly 39% said the economy was the single most important issue facing the country, and nearly 90% said the cost of living was a crucial or major factor in their vote.
经济上的愤怒与选民在周二众议院选举中的投票方式密切相关。四分之三的选民认为经济状况不太好或糟糕,这些选民以67%对29%的比例支持民主党候选人。近80%的人表示,通胀在过去一年给他们的家庭造成了困难。
Economic anger was closely tied to how voters cast their ballots in Tuesday’s House races. Three-quarters of voters described the economy as not so good or poor, and those voters backed Democratic candidates 67% to 29%. Nearly 80% said that inflation has caused their family hardship in the past year.
据美联社报道,食品、燃料和医疗保健成本的上涨是全国选民的主要担忧,选民将国家经济困境的责任直接归咎于特朗普总统,他决定对伊朗开战推高了燃料价格。近三分之二的人表示,总统的关税政策损害了国家经济,同样比例的人表示特朗普使经济状况变得更糟。
Rising costs of food, fuel and healthcare were major concerns for voters across the country, according to the AP, and voters placed the blame for the country’s economic woes squarely on President Trump, whose decision to go to war in Iran drove up fuel prices. Nearly two-thirds said the president’s tariff policies had hurt the national economy and the same share said Trump has made economic conditions worse.
对伊朗战争的愤怒帮助民主党在艾奥瓦州和堪萨斯州这两个深陷共和党地盘的参议院选战中获胜。这两个农业州的汽油和柴油价格上涨尤其刺痛人心,因为人均消费量更高。
Anger over the Iran war helped sweep Democrats to victory in Senate races deep in Republican turf in Iowa and Kansas, agricultural states where rising gasoline and diesel prices sting particularly hard because per-capita consumption is higher.
生活成本也是翻转北卡罗来纳州和南卡罗来纳州参议院席位的一个因素。这两个州曾被认为生活成本可负担,但自疫情以来住房成本飙升,加剧了选民的焦虑。
The cost of living was a factor in flipping Senate seats in North and South Carolina, states that were once considered affordable but where housing costs have surged since the pandemic, feeding voter anxiety.
在缅因州,特朗普与加拿大的贸易战加剧了这个与北方邻国关系密切的州所承受的经济压力。该州超过三分之二的选民告诉美联社,特朗普的关税政策损害了该州经济。
And in Maine, Trump’s trade war with Canada added to the economic pressures on a state with close ties to its northern neighbor. More than two-thirds of voters in the state told the AP that Trump’s tariff policies have hurt the state’s economy.
在新奥尔良郊区梅泰里,詹姆斯·拉库姆在2016年投票支持特朗普,在2020年和2024年则投票支持第三方候选人。周二,他在参议院选举中把票投给了民主党人杰米·戴维斯,后者输给了共和党人朱莉娅·莱特洛,但差距比许多人预期的要小。这位54岁的塑料厂工人谈到特朗普政府时说:“我只是对他们所做的工作不满意。”
In Metairie, a suburb of New Orleans, James Lacoume voted for Trump in 2016 and third-party candidates in 2020 and 2024. On Tuesday, he voted in the Senate race for Democrat Jamie Davis, who lost to Republican Julia Letlow by a narrower margin than many expected. “I’m just not satisfied with the job they’re doing,” the 54-year-old plastics-plant worker said of the Trump administration.
“现在对我来说最大的问题是经济,”他说。“尽管我没有投票给特朗普,但鉴于他的那些说法,我原本期待更多,结果我们却只是一路越走越糟。”全国范围内的选举结果是对一个政党和一位总统的惊人斥责——仅仅两年前,美国人民才选举了他们,因为他们相信特朗普是修复经济、遏制通胀的最大希望。
“The biggest issue right now for me is the economy,” he said. “Even though I did not vote for Trump, I was expecting more given his talking points, and instead we just went further and further down.”The nationwide results were a stunning rebuke to a party and a president elected just two years ago by Americans who believed Trump was their best hope for fixing the economy and taming inflation.
在2024年大选中,数以百万计的美国人——包括通常不投共和党票的年轻人以及黑人和西班牙裔选民——支持特朗普,部分原因是他们希望他能控制物价。“从我宣誓就职那天起,我将迅速压低物价,我们将让美国重新变得负担得起,”特朗普在竞选活动中说。
In the 2024 election, millions of Americans, including young people and Black and Hispanic voters who don’t typically vote Republican, backed Trump in part because they hoped he would bring prices under control. “Starting the day I take the oath of office, I will rapidly drive prices down, and we will make America affordable again,” Trump said on the campaign trail.

他承诺美国繁荣将迎来一个新的“黄金时代”。受人工智能投资和稳定消费支出的推动,夏季经济增长折合年率飙升至3.4%。股市创下历史新高,美国最富有的居民财富增长。去年的减税——特朗普的一项关键竞选承诺——提振了家庭财务,并扩大了对企业的投资激励。失业率仍然很低,而且在工厂就业人数连年下降之后,美国甚至再次增加了制造业就业岗位。
He promised a new “golden age” of American prosperity. Economic growth surged to an annual rate of 3.4% over the summer, fueled by investment in artificial intelligence and steady consumer spending. The stock market hit record highs, and America’s richest residents saw their wealth grow. Last year’s tax cuts—a key Trump campaign promise—boosted household finances and expanded investment incentives for businesses. Unemployment remains low, and the U.S. is even adding manufacturing jobs again after years of declining factory payrolls.
与此同时,物价并没有像特朗普承诺的那样降下来。他的关税推高了玩具和家具等商品的价格,而他决定攻击伊朗则推高了汽油价格,并导致今年通胀大幅上升。实际工资,即计入通胀因素后的薪酬,已经连续六个月下降。许多美国人对经济状况的感受比两年前更加悲观。
At the same time, prices haven’t come down the way that Trump promised. His tariffs pushed up the cost of goods such as toys and furniture and his decision to attack Iran lifted gasoline prices and led to a sharp rise in inflation this year. Real wages, that is pay with inflation factored in, have been falling for six months. Many Americans are now gloomier about the state of the economy than they were two years ago.
密歇根大学定期开展一项追踪消费者情绪的调查,10月份的读数是自1952年有记录以来的第二低(最低值出现在5月)。
The University of Michigan runs a regular survey tracking consumer sentiment, and October’s reading was the second-lowest on record (the lowest was in May) going back to 1952.
根据美国劳工统计局的数据,9月份通胀率达到3.7%,远高于前总统乔·拜登任期最后几个月的2.9%年率。物价下降从一开始就不现实,因为那通常需要一场惩罚性的衰退。批评者认为,这轮上涨很大程度上是自作自受——是特朗普与伊朗开战以及关税的结果——并且因数据中心建设热潮而加剧。通胀冲击对低收入家庭尤为痛苦,其中许多人还受到食品券削减的影响。
Inflation hit 3.7% in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, far higher than the 2.9% annual rate in the last months of former President Joe Biden’s term. Price declines were unrealistic to begin with, because they would typically require a punishing recession. And critics argue that much of this increase has been self-inflicted—the result of Trump’s war with Iran, and tariffs—and compounded by a boom in data-center construction. The inflation hit has been particularly painful for lower-income households, many of whom are also affected by cuts to food stamps.
自2月伊朗战争爆发以来,汽油价格上涨了近50%。柴油价格上涨了近三分之二,并在9月达到有记录以来的最高点。这一影响在少数几个摇摆州尤为严重,而巨型标牌上标示的价格是经济中最显眼的现象之一。
Gasoline prices are up nearly 50% since the start of the war in Iran in February. Diesel prices have increased by nearly two-thirds, reaching their highest point on record in September. The effect is particularly severe in a handful of swing states, and the prices posted on giant signs are among the most visible in the economy.
根据布朗大学气候解决方案实验室的计算,在艾奥瓦州、堪萨斯州、缅因州、密歇根州、新罕布什尔州和得克萨斯州,由于伊朗战争,一个典型家庭今年截至10月中旬不得不在汽油上多支出超过600美元。相比之下,印第安纳州、俄勒冈州、纽约州和华盛顿州的额外支出不到400美元。
In Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire and Texas, a typical household had to spend more than $600 extra on gasoline this year through mid-October because of the Iran war, according to calculations by Brown University’s Climate Solutions Lab. That compares with less than $400 extra in Indiana, Oregon, New York and Washington state.
在人口较为稀少的农业州,人们往往驾驶更大的汽车、行驶更长的距离,这意味着他们的人均燃油支出更高,对油价上涨的感受也更为强烈。这些州的人均柴油消费量也高得多。柴油用于驱动拖拉机、联合收割机和重型卡车。
People in more-sparsely populated agricultural states tend to drive bigger cars over longer distances, meaning they spend more per capita on fuel and feel the pain from rising prices more acutely. These states also have a much higher per-capita diesel consumption. The fuel is used to power tractors, combines and heavy trucks.
28岁的伊丽莎白·布什是来自艾奥瓦州贝滕多夫地区的全职母亲,有两个孩子。去年之前,她从未关注过汽油价格。如今,为了省钱,她会考虑只把油箱加到一半。食品杂货也是如此——她会权衡是否购买更便宜的食物,而以前她从未想过这些。
Elizabeth Bush, a 28-year-old stay-at-home mother of two from the Bettendorf, Iowa, area, had never paid attention to the price of gas before last year. Now she considers filling her tank up halfway to save money. It is the same with groceries—she weighs getting cheaper food, having never thought about it before.
“我以前从不考虑这些事情。而今年,这成了我挂在心上的事,”她说。
“I never used to think about these things. And this year, it’s something that’s on my mind,” she said.
这些问题,以及她所描述的日益加剧的政治对立,在布什周二前往投票时萦绕在她心头,她把票全部投给了民主党。布什是一名登记民主党人,她说自己也愿意接受共和党的理念,但觉得民主党更有能力帮助有需要的人。
These issues, and what she described as growing political divisiveness, weighed on Bush when she went to the polls on Tuesday and voted Democrat across the board. Bush, a registered Democrat, said she was open to Republican ideas, too, but felt that Democrats were better-positioned to help people in need.
民主党州众议员乔什·图雷克赢得了艾奥瓦州一个空缺席位的参议员选举,这是民主党拿下的第六个参议院席位,并由此锁定下一届国会参议院的控制权。罗布·桑德赢得了艾奥瓦州州长选举,成为二十年来首位当选该州最高职位的民主党人。
Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek won an open Senate seat in Iowa, marking the sixth Democratic Senate pickup and clinching control of the chamber in the next Congress. Rob Sand won Iowa’s race for governor, becoming the first Democrat elected to the state’s top post in two decades.
甚至许多一向可靠地支持共和党的选民也表示,他们对经济状况感到不满。
Even many reliably Republican voters said they are unhappy about the economy.
59岁的达林·加德是俄亥俄州哥伦布市的一名军队退休人员,他在2020年和2024年都支持了特朗普。周二,他再次投票给共和党。但他对总统感到不满,原因是高物价和伊朗战争——这场战争迫使他花130美元才能给自己的皮卡加满油。
Darin Gadd, a 59-year-old retiree from the military in Columbus, Ohio, backed Trump in 2020 and 2024. On Tuesday, he again voted Republican. But he is fed up with the president over high prices and the war in Iran, which has forced him to pay $130 to fill up his pickup.

“两年了,除了干坏事,他什么都没做,”加德说,并特别指出关税推高了物价。加德在哥哥的建筑公司做兼职,他指责关税抬高了许多材料的成本。“一张胶合板以前是4.50美元,现在要30多美元,”他说,“靠这个已经盖不起房子了。”SMBC美洲首席经济学家约瑟夫·拉沃尔尼亚曾在特朗普第一届政府期间任职于国家经济委员会,他说选民们正指望特朗普。“总统本该解决问题,但他没有,”他说。问题不只是物价上涨速度加快:工资也已经跟不上了。
“Two years and he hasn’t done anything except for bad things,” Gadd said, singling out tariffs for raising prices. Gadd works part time for his brother’s construction company and blamed tariffs for raising the cost of many materials. “A sheet of plywood used to be $4.50, now it’s $30-something,” he said. “You can’t build a house on that anymore.”Joseph Lavorgna, chief economist at SMBC Americas who worked on the National Economic Council during the first Trump administration, said voters were counting on Trump. “The president was there to fix it and he didn’t,” he said. It isn’t just that prices are rising at a faster pace: Pay is no longer keeping up.
“如果你的实际收入在缩水,你会对很多事情感到焦虑,”拉沃尔尼亚说,他还在特朗普第二个任期内担任财政部长斯科特·贝森特的顾问。“这基本上就是问题的核心所在。”住房是许多选民的另一大痛点。房贷利率目前高于7%,略高于2024年大选前夕的水平。这让许多美国人买不起房。9月份,待售房屋签约量降至历史最低水平。与此同时,移民打击行动使建筑工人更难招到,关税又推高了材料成本,拖累了房屋建设。
“If your real income is shrinking, you’re going to be anxious about a lot of things,” said Lavorgna, who also served as a counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during Trump’s second term. “That basically gets to the crux of it.”Housing is another pain for many voters. Mortgage rates are now above 7%, slightly higher than they were just before the 2024 election. That has put buying a home out of reach for many Americans. In September, pending home sales fell to a record low. Meanwhile, the immigration crackdown has made it harder to find construction workers, and tariffs have pushed up the cost of materials, weighing on home-building.
2024年大选前,拜登政府曾宣扬经济增长稳健,但选民们关注的是通胀,并因此惩罚了民主党人。仅仅指出物价上涨放缓或GDP数据强劲,并不能平息选民对物价上涨的沮丧情绪。这是拜登官员吸取的教训,也是共和党人眼下正在艰难应对的问题。
Ahead of the 2024 election, the Biden administration touted healthy economic growth, but voters were focused on inflation and punished Democrats. Pointing to slower price increases or solid GDP figures just doesn’t assuage voters’ frustration with higher prices. It is a lesson that Biden officials learned and one that Republicans are struggling with now.
“我们执政的时候,是的,我们确实自顾自地讲话,对人们说‘看看这份强劲的GDP报告吧’,”曾在拜登任内担任经济顾问委员会主席的贾里德·伯恩斯坦说。
“Back when we were in power, yes, we definitely talked past people by saying, ‘Look over here at this strong GDP report,’” said Jared Bernstein, who was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Biden.
他说,特朗普政府面临的问题是,它通过关税和伊朗战争造成了新的价格冲击。伯恩斯坦说:“我认识到,试图告诉人们他们过得比自己所想的更好是愚蠢的,但我的同情因他们继续推行如此多的通胀政策而减弱。”27岁的斯蒂芬妮·埃尔南德斯是迈阿密地区的一名零售经理,她在周二全部投票给了民主党人。她说,她希望由民主党控制的国会推动逆转她认为特朗普最具危害性的政策,包括关税和移民突袭行动。
The problem for the Trump administration, he said, is that it has imposed new price shocks through tariffs and the Iran war. “I recognize the folly of trying to tell people they’re better off than they think they are,” Bernstein said, “but my sympathy is mitigated by how much inflationary policy they continue to pursue.”Stephanie Hernandez, a 27-year-old retail manager in the Miami area, voted exclusively for Democrats on Tuesday, saying she hoped a Democratic-controlled Congress would push to reverse what she considers Trump’s most harmful policies, including tariffs and immigration raids.

埃尔南德斯说,她工作的那家零售商面临由关税引发的供应问题,导致一些商品无法获得。她还担心美国企业,比如肯塔基州的波旁威士忌生产商,正因针对美国产品的报复性关税而遭受损失,迫使他们裁员。
Hernandez said the retailer where she works has faced supply issues triggered by tariffs, resulting in some products becoming inaccessible. She also worries about American companies, such as Kentucky bourbon makers, that are suffering because of retaliatory tariffs placed on U.S. products, prompting them to lay off workers.
“看看他们损失了多少钱,”身为注册民主党人的埃尔南德斯说,“关税显然是我想要废除的东西。”选民现在认为国会民主党人比共和党人更有能力处理经济问题,领先3个百分点,而此前共和党人曾领先12个百分点。在通胀问题上,共和党人10个百分点的领先已变成民主党人5个百分点的优势;在关税问题上,共和党人7个百分点的优势已翻转为民主党人7个百分点的优势。
“Look how much money they lost,” said Hernandez, a registered Democrat. “The tariffs would be something that I would like to obviously do away with.”Voters now see congressional Democrats as better able than Republicans to handle the economy by 3 percentage points, after Republicans held a 12-point advantage. On inflation, the Republicans’ 10-point lead has become a 5-point Democrat advantage, and on tariffs, a 7-point Republican advantage has flipped to a 7-point Democratic edge.