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欧洲央行调查显示未来几个季度通胀率将更高ECB survey sees higher inflation in coming quarters

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2018年4月26日,在位于德国法兰克福的欧洲中央银行(ECB)总部外拍摄到的该行标志。路透社/凯·普法芬巴赫/资料图片The logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) is pictured outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, April 26, 2018. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo

欧洲央行周五公布的专业预测人士调查显示,预计今年和明年的欧元区通胀率将比先前预测的大幅走高,并且可能要到2028年才能回到欧洲央行2%的目标。

Euro zone inflation is expected to be sharply higher this year and next than earlier predicted, and may only return to the European Central Bank's 2% target in 2028, the bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters showed on Friday.

上个月通胀率飙升至欧洲央行目标的近两倍,且可能因能源成本大幅上涨而进一步攀升,在决策者周四选择维持利率不变之后,这很可能会迫使欧洲央行在12月再次加息。

Inflation has surged to nearly twice the ECB's goal last month and could rise even further on sharply higher energy costs, likely forcing the ECB to raise interest rates again in December after policymakers opted for a hold on Thursday.

欧洲央行的季度调查目前预计,今年的通胀率平均为3.0%,高于此前预测的2.7%,而明年的预测值则从2.2%上调至2.6%。

The ECB's quarterly survey now sees inflation averaging 3.0% this year, above the 2.7% predicted earlier while next year's projection was lifted to 2.6% from 2.2%.

然而,潜在通胀预测的变化较为温和,这表明大部分增长归因于能源成本,目前的能源成本介于欧洲央行的不利情景和严重情景之间。

Changes in underlying inflation forecasts were more benign, however, suggesting that the bulk of the increase was due to energy costs, which are now somewhere between the ECB's adverse and severe scenarios.

调查显示,剔除食品和能源成本的核心通胀率预计今年平均为2.4%,明年为2.5%,但即使在2028年也将保持在2%以上。

Core inflation, which filters out food and energy costs, was seen averaging 2.4% this year and 2.5% next, but will remain above 2% even in 2028, the survey said.

预测人士表示,高通胀仍预计不会引发工资-价格螺旋上升,预计工资增长率将从今年的3.3%放缓至明年的3.1%和2028年的2.8%。

High inflation is still not expected to kick off a wage-price spiral, the forecasters said, and wage growth is seen slowing from this year's 3.3% to 3.1% next year and 2.8% in 2028.

这应该会给决策者带来一些安慰,因为他们担心高通胀会产生第二轮效应,而这可能会被证明是顽固的并迫使该行加息。

This should offer policymakers some comfort as they fear that high inflation will generate second round effects, which can prove stubborn and force the bank to hike rates.

欧洲央行长期以来一直表示,鉴于通常的生产率增长,3%左右的工资增长与其自身的通胀目标相符。

The ECB has long said that wage growth of around 3% was consistent with its own inflation goal, given usual productivity gains.

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