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受中东局势影响,欧洲航空交通预计将减少11万个航班European air traffic expected to shrink by 110,000 flights amid Middle East tensions

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根据航空机构欧洲航空管制组织(Eurocontrol)的预测,中东地区持续的冲突预计将拖缓欧洲航空交通增长,导致2026年减少约11万个航班。尽管夏季旅客需求强劲,但欧洲航空业表现仍低于增长预期。

The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are expected to slow European air traffic growth, leading to a loss of around 110,000 flights in 2026, according to forecasts from aviation agency Eurocontrol. The European aviation sector performed below growth expectations despite strong passenger demand in the summer.

欧洲民用航空会议(ECAC)地区的航班量预计今年将增长1.7%,达到1120万架次,低于此前预测的2.7%增幅,标志着下调了1个百分点。

The number of flights in the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) region is expected to grow by 1.7% this year to 11.2 million, below the previously projected 2.7% growth, marking a 1-percentage-point downward revision.

该地区事态发展导致航线变更并推高喷气燃料价格,影响了欧洲航空的增长前景,但欧洲航空管制组织预计明年增长将重获动力,预计2027年航班量将增长3.2%,达到1160万架次。今年增长预期的下调引发了预期,即明年航班量也可能不及预估。

Developments in the region that prompted changes in flight routes and sent jet fuel prices soaring affected the growth outlook for European aviation, but Eurocontrol expects growth to regain momentum next year, with a projected 3.2% increase to 11.6 million flights in 2027. The downward revision to this year's growth forecast fueled expectations that the number of flights next year may also fall short of estimates.

欧洲航空管制组织假设中东局势将在2027年第一季度末趋于稳定,但一种较为悲观的情景预测紧张局势将持续至2028年第一季度末,高昂的燃油成本和疲弱的经济增长将限制航空出行需求。

Eurocontrol assumes the situation in the Middle East will stabilize by the end of the first quarter of 2027, but a more pessimistic scenario forecasts tensions persisting until the end of the first quarter of 2028, with high fuel costs and weak economic growth limiting air travel demand.

预计明年航空交通复苏将更加明显,但该组织指出,复苏在土耳其和一些东地中海国家可能更为强劲。

The recovery in air traffic is expected to become more pronounced next year, but the organization noted that the recovery could be stronger in Türkiye and some Eastern Mediterranean countries.

根据欧洲航空管制组织的数据,2026年至2032年,欧洲航班量预计将以年均2.1%的速度增长,到2032年,该地区航班总量预计将达到约1280万架次。

The number of flights across Europe is expected to rise by an average of 2.1% per year from 2026 to 2032, while the total number of flights in the region is estimated to reach around 12.8 million by 2032, according to Eurocontrol.

虽然该组织预计中期增长前景基本保持不变,但由于地缘政治事态发展,航班量可能略低于先前预期。

While the organization expects the medium-term growth outlook to remain largely the same, the number of flights may fall slightly short of previous expectations due to geopolitical developments.

欧洲空中交通管制组织的网络管理报告显示,上个月欧洲领空日均航班量为35,679架次,环比增长2.5%。

Eurocontrol's network management report recorded an average of 35,679 flights per day in European airspace last month, up 2.5% month-on-month.

报告称,最繁忙的一天是9月4日,当时欧洲领空记录了37,548架次航班。因空中交通流量管理造成的总延误时长达到略超过240万分钟。

The busiest day was Sept. 4, when 37,548 flights were recorded in European airspace. Total delays due to air traffic flow management reached a little over 2.4 million minutes, according to the report.

尽管空中交通量上升,但运力限制、恶劣天气和空中交通管理问题仍影响了运行表现。

Capacity constraints, adverse weather and air traffic management issues affected operational performance despite the rise in air traffic.

该组织表示,地缘政治事态发展、领空限制、能源价格和航空出行需求将决定未来一段时间的趋势。

Geopolitical developments, airspace restrictions, energy prices and air travel demand will determine trends in the coming period, the organization said.

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