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国会山报

参议员马克·凯利最新动态:“反特朗普”的2028年总统候选人,还是竞选连任参议员Sen. Mark Kelly update: ‘anti-Trump’ 2028 presidential candidate or Senate reelection

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观点:参议员马克·凯利最新动态:“反特朗普”的2028年总统候选人,还是竞选连任参议员美国历史上最具争议、最昂贵、最戏剧化、最恶毒、最两极分化且经过不公正选区划分的中期选举将于11月3日达到高潮。在这场竞选周期中,特朗普总统反复要求选民“假装”他也出现在选票上。

Opinion: Sen. Mark Kelly update: 'anti-Trump' 2028 presidential candidate or Senate reelection The most contentious, expensive, dramatic, vitriolic, polarized, and gerrymandered midterm election in U.S. history peaks on Nov. 3, a campaign cycle in which President Trump repeatedly asked voters to “pretend” he was on the ballot.

因此,如果民主党赢得众议院和参议院的控制权,而特朗普认为部分选举结果存在舞弊、被操纵或从共和党手中窃取,他就有可能面临个人层面的斥责。如果总统授权采取特朗普团队在2026年全年曾含糊威胁过的激进联邦行动,这种局面可能引发宪法危机。

Thus, Trump risks a personal rebuke if Democrats win control of the House and Senate and he deems the results of selected races fraudulent, rigged or stolen from Republicans. Such a scenario could trigger a constitutional crisis if the president authorizes aggressive federal action that Team Trump has loosely threatened throughout 2026.

奇怪的是,上周六,特朗普发了一封语气尴尬的筹款电子邮件,恳求道:“别让我说再见。”这或许是一个试探提前退出、赶在2029年1月20日之前离任的信号?此外,特朗普将于11月4日正式成为“跛脚鸭”,这一天也是2028年总统竞选的启动日,届时这场恶劣的中期选举将显得如同儿戏。

Strangely, last Saturday, Trump sent an awkward fundraising email pleading, “Do not make me say goodbye.”Perhaps it was a smoke signal testing an early exit before Jan. 20, 2029? Furthermore, Trump officially becomes a “lame duck” on Nov. 4, the kick-off for the 2028 presidential campaign, which will make this nasty midterm election look like child’s play.

尽管副总统JD·万斯在共和党提名中占据优势,但特朗普“何时”或“是否”为他背书仍是未知数。最近在竞选活动中,万斯在为一则卑劣广告辩护时自伤,这可能永久损害他在女性选民中的地位。

Although Vice President JD Vance has the edge for the Republican nomination, “when” or “if” Trump endorses him remains the wild card. Recently, on the campaign trail, Vance suffered a self-inflicted wound while defending a vile ad that could permanently haunt his standing with women voters.

民主党的初选人才储备更深,但没有明显的领跑者。作为一名前共和党人,我青睐的候选人是参议员马克·凯利(民主党-亚利桑那州),他在初选中拥有3%的支持率。他是反特朗普的候选人,在个性和风格上与这场很可能是钟摆式摇摆的选举形成对照。凯利似乎非常适合后特朗普时代,届时美国将面临自20世纪30年代以来最严峻的国内和国外威胁。

Democrats have a deeper primary bench with no clear frontrunner. As a former Republican, my preferred candidate is Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who has 3 percent primary support. He is the anti-Trump candidate, opposite in personality and style for what is likely to be a pendulum-swing election. Kelly appears well suited for the post-Trump era, when America faces its most challenging domestic and foreign threats since the 1930s.

整整一年前,我在《国会山报》发表的专栏文章《马克·凯利:从前航天飞机指挥官到2028年三军统帅?》曾让政治战略家们翻白眼。在发现www.markkellypresident2028.com尚未被注册后,我一时兴起买下了它。

Exactly a year ago, my Hill op-ed, “Mark Kelly: former Space Shuttle commander to 2028 commander-in-chief?” drew eye rolls from political strategists. After discovering that www.markkellypresident2028.com was available, I bought it on a whim.

快进到凯利10月20日接受《国会山报》采访。据报道,“他正在更接近做出竞选总统的决定。”但凯利解释说,要等到“选举的另一边”。如果是真的,我将把这个域名捐给他的竞选团队。

Fast forward to Kelly’s Oct. 20 interview on The Hill. It was reported that “He’s getting closer to making a decision about running for president.”But not until “the other side of this election,” Kelly explained. If yes, I will donate the domain to his campaign.

2025年11月18日,也就是我的评论文章发表11天后,凯利与其他五名议员一起出现在一个有争议的视频中,敦促军人违抗非法命令。结果,凯利陷入了与特朗普政府和国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯的多场法律纠纷中。争端已升级且仍未解决。

On Nov. 18, 2025, 11 days after my op-ed, Kelly appeared in a controversial video with five other lawmakers, urging military service members to defy illegal orders. As a result, Kelly is embroiled in several legal battles with the Trump administration and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The disputes have escalated and remain unresolved.

特朗普总统对该视频的反应——惊呼这是“煽动叛乱行为,可判处死刑!”——将凯利推向媒体聚光灯下,扩大了他的全国知名度,并在民主党人中筹集了更多资金。

President Trump’s reaction to the video — exclaiming it was “seditious behavior, punishable by DEATH!” — propelled Kelly into the media spotlight, expanding his national profile and fundraising among Democrats.

一年后,凯利被广泛视为2028年民主党提名的有力竞争者。在中期选举周期中,他为候选人筹集了超过1400万美元,建立了一个足以支撑总统竞选的全国性网络。

A year later, Kelly is widely considered a prospective 2028 Democratic nominee. During the midterm election cycle, he raised over $14 million for candidates, developing a national network worthy of a presidential launch.

在参议院,凯利担任权力强大的武装力量委员会和情报委员会成员。他深知加速的技术变革正在显著影响美国经济,鉴于其关键的国家安全意义,必须将其转化为美国的优势。

In the Senate, Kelly serves on the powerful Armed Services and Intelligence committees. He knows that accelerating technological change is significantly affecting the U.S. economy and, given its critical national security implications, must be harnessed to America’s advantage.

对凯利而言,太空战争不仅仅是总统竞选的谈资。此外,欧洲和中东的陆地战争,以及中国可能入侵台湾,都需要像他这样背景和经验的人提供国内和全球领导力,鉴于他英勇鼓舞人心的履历。

For Kelly, a space war is more than a presidential campaign talking point. Then, land wars in Europe and the Middle East, along with a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, call for someone with his background and experience to provide domestic and global leadership, given his heroic and inspiring resume.

退役海军上校凯利曾是战斗机和试飞员,拥有375次航母着舰和39次实战任务。后来作为美国宇航局宇航员,他在2001年至2011年间执行了四次航天飞机任务,两次担任飞行员,两次担任指挥官。他的钢铁般神经将在激烈的初选、前所未有的大选以及在椭圆形办公室中为他提供帮助。

Navy Capt. Kelly (retired) was a fighter and test pilot with 375 carrier landings and 39 combat missions. Later, as a NASA astronaut, he flew four Space Shuttle missions from 2001 to 2011, two as pilot and two as commander. His nerves of steel would serve him well during an intense primary, an off-the-charts general election, and in the Oval Office.

遗憾的是,宇航员凯利的生活在2011年1月发生了剧变,当时他的妻子、时任众议员加比·吉福兹(民主党-亚利桑那州)在一起大规模伤亡事件中头部中枪。为了支持妻子漫长的康复过程,凯利从美国国家航空航天局(NASA)退休。如今,尽管因脑损伤导致语言障碍,吉福兹仍致力于倡导反对枪支暴力。如果凯利竞选总统,他们将是一对搭档。

Tragically, astronaut Kelly’s life changed in January 2011, when his wife, then-Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.), was shot in the head at a mass-casualty event. To support her long recovery, Kelly retired from NASA. Today, Giffords advocates against gun violence despite a speech disability caused by brain damage. They are a team should Kelly run for president.

然而,他们必须在拥挤残酷的民主党初选和参议员连任竞选之间做出抉择。2022年,凯利仅以51%的得票率获胜,尽管他在政治上现在更强了。他可以选择留任参议员,并有可能被提名人选为竞选搭档。2024年,卡玛拉·哈里斯曾考虑让凯利担任副总统候选人,但最终选择了明尼苏达州州长。

However, they must decide between a crowded, brutal Democratic primary and a Senate reelection campaign. In 2022, Kelly won with only 51 percent, although politically stronger now. He could choose the Senate and possibly be tapped as the nominee’s running mate. In 2024, Kamala Harris considered Kelly for her vice president but chose the governor of Minnesota instead.

如果凯利参加初选,在“颜值之战”中他将输给长相帅气的加利福尼亚州州长加文·纽森(如果纽森参选的话)。但当凯利独特的技能组合和经历能帮助美国在盟友和贸易伙伴中重获尊重、在特朗普疏远盟友的政策实施多年后振兴美国经济时,符合中心选角标准的外貌不应成为考量因素。

If Kelly enters the primary, he will lose the hair war to the photogenic California Gov. Gavin Newsom if Newsom runs. But central-casting looks shouldn't matter when Kelly’s unique skill set and experience can help the U.S. regain respect among our allies and trading partners, boosting the American economy after years of Trump’s alienating policies.

在日益由高科技武器化威胁主导的世界里,一位航空工程师、航天飞机指令长和关键摇摆州参议员或许能将政治钟摆从特朗普的“错误统治”中摆动回来。马克·凯利为照顾妻子而退休,这表明他富有同理心、情绪稳定、真诚可信,且具备极高的资格成为下一任总统兼三军统帅。称他为“反特朗普”再合适不过。迈拉·亚当斯曾在2004年和2008年担任两位共和党总统候选人竞选团队的创意成员。

In a world increasingly dominated by high-tech weaponized threats, an aeronautical engineer, space shuttle commander, and battleground-state senator might swing the political pendulum away from Trump’s reign of error. Mark Kelly retired to care for his wife, demonstrating he is empathetic, emotionally stable, authentic, and eminently qualified to be the next commander in chief. Call him the “anti-Trump.”Myra Adams served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.

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