历史学家将如何看待2026年中期选举？我的猜测是，许多人会写道，“可负担性危机”帮助拯救了民主。没有愚蠢的战争和高昂的柴油价格，唐纳德·特朗普的专制行为可能会在选举中得到验证。想象一下，2027年和2028年将是2025年更为险恶的版本。相反，请期待一头被阉割的野兽。
How will historians view the 2026 midterm elections? My guess is that many of them will write that “the Affordability Crisis” helped save democracy. Without a dumb war and high diesel prices, Donald Trump’s autocratic behavior might have been validated at the polls. Imagine a world where 2027 and 2028 were more sinister versions of 2025. Look instead for a neutered beast.
尽管关于众议院和参议院的议论不断，这些中期选举或许会被历史铭记为一场州长竞选——一场电视历史上最令人作呕的政治广告所特色的竞选。呼应罗伊·科恩“永远、永远不要承认错误”的格言，唐纳德·特朗普和JD·万斯（维韦克·拉马斯瓦米的密友和耶鲁法学院同学）对一个儿童性侵犯者加倍支持，此人强奸了自己的女儿，后来又强奸了他的继女。
For all the talk about the House and Senate, these midterms may be remembered by history for a race for governor—a campaign that featured the most disgusting political ad in the history of television Echoing Roy Cohn’s maxim to never, ever admit error, Donald Trump and JD Vance (Vivek Ramaswamy’s close friend and Yale Law classmate) doubled down on a child molester who raped both his daughter and, later, his stepdaughter.
后者是12岁的艾米·阿克顿，如今预计将成为俄亥俄州的州长当选人。JD和维韦克是千古一时的机会主义者，但他们缺乏乔纳森·马丁所说的特朗普的“修士俱乐部”能力，即为他们的卑劣行为增添喜剧效果。
The latter was 12-year-old Amy Acton, now expected to be the governor-elect of Ohio. JD and Vivek are opportunists for the ages, but they lack what Jonathan Martin calls Trump’s “Friar’s Club” ability to give their perfidy a comedic edge.
这是共和党的真相时刻。在最初48小时内，俄亥俄州州长迈克·德温、参议院候选人乔恩·赫斯特以及大多数其他州共和党人呼吁撤下该广告。“当你知道，这位母亲的丈夫在听取证词后被大陪审团起诉，然后他和母亲一起逃跑了，”德温说，“这使得它更加错误。”但关于拉马斯瓦米政治死亡的报道可能至少略有夸大。他为这则超出常规的商业广告购买了400万美元的广告时段，可能会使政治气候变得如此有毒，以至于投票率暴跌。
This was a moment of truth for the GOP. In the first 48 hours, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, Senate candidate Jon Husted and most other state Republicans called for the ad to be pulled. “When you know that the husband of the mom was indicted by a grand jury after hearing testimony, and then he took off along with the mother,” DeWine said, “it makes it more wrong.”But reports of Ramaswamy’s political death may be at least slightly exaggerated. His $4 million ad buy for this beyond-the-pale commercial could make the political climate so toxic that turnout plummets.
如果发生这种情况，而拉马斯瓦米侥幸获胜，俄亥俄州将成为体面之地走向毁灭的地方。另一方面，如果维韦克惨败，他可能会拖下他的朋友JD，损害他在2028年的机会。
If that happens, and Ramaswamy squeaks through, Ohio will be the place where decency went to die. If, on the other hand, Vivek goes down in flames, he might take his pal JD with him, harming his chances in 2028.
后者今年似乎是更稳妥的选择。对共和党来说，眼下形势严峻。即便是共和党的“旋转专家”也私下承认，他们将失去众议院。如果民主党拿下众议院但未能拿下参议院，结果很遗憾地会被媒体报道为共和党的“BTE”（Better than Expected，超出预期），尽管就在几周前，这种分裂的结果还会被视为民主党的胜利。很抱歉地说，按预期衡量结果，这正是媒体的惯常做法。
The latter seems a better bet this year. It’s grim out there for the GOP now. Even Republican spinners admit privately that they will lose the House. If Democrats take the House but not the Senate, the outcome will, sadly, be covered as BTE (Better than Expected) for the GOP, even though that split result would have been seen as a win for Democrats just a few weeks ago. Sorry to say, measuring outcomes against expectations is just how the media rolls.
还有那种乐观但并非天真乐观的看法。两院都出现“蓝色浪潮”，将实际上终结特朗普时代，剥夺他对共和党以及各地“舔屁股者”的独特权力。特朗普仍有许多方法来骚扰和伤害他的敌人，但恐惧会消散，只剩下厌恶。说美国历史上最伟大的“东山再起”高手“这一次没有回头路可走”，听起来是个冒险的说法。特朗普已经尝试过战争，这是团结公众的经典方式，但行不通。所以他将成为一只“野性跛脚鸭”，狂怒地来回蹒跚，蹼足牢牢塞进嘴里，对着深渊呜咽。
Then there’s the optimistic but hardly dreamy-eyed view. A blue wave in both chambers would effectively end the Trump Era, stripping him of the unique power he had over the GOP and boot-lickers everywhere. Trump would still have plenty of ways to hassle and hurt his enemies, but fear would dissipate, leaving only loathing. It sounds like a risky thing to say about the greatest comeback artists in American history: The man has no path back this time. Trump has already tried war, the classic way of rallying the public. It didn’t work. So he’ll be a feral lame duck, waddling furiously to and fro, his webbed feet firmly in his mouth, honking into the abyss.
民主党大胜将给华盛顿带来比许多人意识到的更多变化。特朗普白宫将试图利用2024年最高法院关于豁免权案件的裁决来抵制国会传票。但豁免权仅适用于特朗普本人，不适用于工作人员。因此，国会委员会将把特朗普政府的证人传唤到国会山，调查选民现在将其列为首要关切的惊人腐败。我们都会对传票之争感到厌倦，但调查无论如何都将继续进行。正如共和党参议员里克·斯科特上周所说，皮特·赫格塞思和小罗伯特·肯尼迪不太可能幸存。
A big Democratic win will bring a lot more change in Washington than many people realize. The Trump White House will try to use the 2024 Supreme Court decision in the immunity case to resist congressional subpoenas. But the immunity applies only to Trump, not staff. So look for congressional committees to haul Trump Administration witnesses to Capitol Hill to probe the breathtaking corruption that voters now put at the top of their list of concerns. We’ll all get bored with the fights over subpoenas, but the investigations will proceed nonetheless. As Republican Sen. Rick Scott said last week, Pete Hegseth and RFK Jr. won’t likely survive.
掌握控制权后，民主党将实施一项雄心勃勃的议程，部分借鉴了“2029计划”（这是他们对特朗普“2025计划”的回应）。民主党的方案包括：恢复已过期的《平价医疗法案》补贴。撤销定于大选后立即生效的联邦医疗保险削减。恢复在乔·拜登任内大幅降低儿童贫困率的扩大版儿童税收抵免。修改或终止特朗普非法的关税制度，这可能会降低物价。
With control, Democrats will enact an ambitious agenda, borrowed in part from Project 2029 (their answer to Trump’s Project 2025). The Democratic program includes: Reinstating expired Obamacare subsidies. Rolling back Medicare cuts that are scheduled to kick in just after the election. Restoring the expanded Child Tax Credit that steeply cut child poverty under Joe Biden. Modifying or ending Trump’s illegal tariff regime, which could lower prices.
恢复对俄罗斯的制裁，并恢复对乌克兰的军事援助。利用监督听证会通过一项严厉的新道德法案。禁止联邦官员进行股票交易。通过监管或禁止垃圾收费来打击“烦扰经济”。
Reinstating sanctions on Russia and restoring military aid to Ukraine. Using oversight hearings to enact a tough new ethics bill. Banning stock trading by federal officials. Attacking the “Annoyance Economy” by regulating or banning junk fees.
这只是开始。放眼2028年的共和党人可能会比过去更加大胆地违抗特朗普。他们是否会与民主党人联手、以足够的人数推翻特朗普的否决，将是未来两年的持续看点之一。他甚至可能签署其中几项法案——除了关税，他对政策并无强烈感受——并让它们成为自己政治遗产的一部分。无论如何，他都会继续大发脾气，但没人会在意，更不会有人为之颤抖。
That’s just for starters. Republicans looking to 2028 are likely to defy Trump much more than in the past. Whether they will join Democrats in enough numbers to override Trump’s vetoes will be one of the running dramas of the next two years. And he might even sign several of the bills—beyond tariffs, he has no strong feelings about policy— and make them part of his legacy. Either way, he’ll continue to throw hissy fits, but no one will care, much less quake Of course none of this happens if the Democrats don’t win big.
当然，如果民主党不大获全胜，这一切都不会发生。在评估为何形势对他们有利时，最重要的数据点是：埃隆·马斯克和其他亿万富翁在9月下旬和10月初投入的数千万美元并未改变局面。这种情况本周可能会改变，但时间不多了。
When assessing why things are looking good for them, the most important data point is that tens of millions from Elon Musk and other billionaires spent in late September and early October have not moved the needle That could change this week, but time is running out.
特朗普会宣布紧急状态并派遣联邦探员进入计票中心吗？这违反三项联邦法律，其中一项由亚伯拉罕·林肯签署。特朗普当然不在乎。
Will Trump declare an emergency and send federal agents into election centers (where votes are counted)? That’s illegal under three federal laws, one of which was signed by Abraham Lincoln. Trump doesn’t care, of course.
他告诉《时代》周刊的埃里克·科尔特莱萨，他不会排除这种可能。如果他以关税为由宣布紧急状态，那么他也很可能以选举为由这样做——他几乎每天都在诋毁选举的公正性。
He told Eric Cortellessa of TIME that he wouldn’t rule it out If he declared an emergency over tariffs, there’s a good chance he will do the same over elections, whose integrity he trashes almost every day.
因此，预计移民和海关执法局（ICE）探员将大批涌入拉丁裔社区，而许多无证拉丁裔本就已害怕出门。他们中大量的人有身为公民、且是潜在选民的亲属，但这些亲属不愿让外界注意到自己的家庭。这个似乎正集体回流民主党的群体，投票率可能会低得令人意外。这将不利于詹姆斯·塔拉里科。
So look for ICE agents to swarm Latino neighborhoods, where many undocumented Latinos are already afraid to leave their homes. Large numbers of them have relatives who are citizens and potential voters but don’t want to draw attention to their families. Turnout in that community, which seems to be moving en masse back to the Democrats, could be surprisingly light. That would hurt James Talarico.
如果众议院对共和党人来说已经失守，保住参议院对他们而言是更容易实现的目标。众议院选情历来与总统的支持率和经济状况相关联。相比之下，参议院候选人的胜负取决于其候选人自身的能力、资金以及所在州的特殊情况。2018年，即特朗普任内的首次中期选举，民主党在众议院净增41席，但在参议院净失两席。
If the House is gone for Republicans, saving the Senate is an easier lift for them. While House races are historically connected to the approval ratings of the president and the condition of the economy. By contrast, Senate candidates win or lose based on their candidate skills, their money, and the peculiarities of their states. In 2018, the first Trump midterm election, Democrats gained 41 seats in the House but lost two in the Senate.
今年有十几场关键的参议院选战。北卡罗来纳州将翻盘，佐治亚州将保持民主党掌控，但十个州的民调——俄亥俄、密歇根、明尼苏达、得克萨斯、堪萨斯、内布拉斯加、艾奥瓦、新罕布什尔、阿拉斯加和缅因——全部处于误差范围之内。选举之夜，东海岸的投票最先结束。如果克里斯·帕帕斯在新罕布什尔州早早获胜，那对民主党人来说是个好夜晚；如果安妮·亚当斯在南卡罗来纳州击败达琳·格雷厄姆，那就是个大好夜晚。
This year features a dozen key Senate races. North Carolina will flip, and Georgia will stay Democratic, but polls in ten states—Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, New Hampshire, Alaska and Maine—are all within the margin of error. The East Coast polls close first on Election Night. If Chris Pappas wins early in New Hampshire, it’s a good night for Democrats; if Annie Adams beats Darline Graham in South Carolina, it’s a great one.
这些摇摆州已经是魔鬼的作坊。特朗普似乎专注于不认证势均力敌的选举结果，尽管法院对此持负面看法。司法部长托德·布兰奇是一位法律极端主义者；2024年春天，我曾目睹他在斯托米·丹尼尔斯重罪案中，用一连串荒谬的动议抹黑胡安·梅尔坎法官。现在，在特朗普的怂恿下，他试图辩称，阿拉斯加州参议院选举结果不应认证，因为现任共和党参议员丹·沙利文面临的不仅是一位强劲的民主党人（玛丽·佩托拉），还有一位名叫丹·沙利文的独立候选人。布兰奇声称，这种混淆应使选举无效——但前提当然是沙利文输掉选举。
These close states are already the devil’s workshop. Trump seems to be focused on not certifying close elections, even though courts have taken a dim view of that. Attorney General Todd Blanche is a legal maximalist; in the spring of 2024, I watched him slime Judge Juan Merchan in the Stormy Daniels felony trial with an endless stream of preposterous motions Now, at Trump’s urging, he’s trying to argue that the Alaska Senate results should not be certified because incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is facing not just a strong Democrat (Mary Peltola) but an independent by the name of Dan Sullivan. Blanche claims the confusion should invalidate the election—but only if Sullivan loses, of course.
如果德克萨斯州的选举像预期的那样势均力敌，德克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特可能不会认证塔拉里科的当选。如果还有几个州陷入诉讼僵局，参议院的控制权——以及随之而来的一切——可能会被推迟数月。宪政危机可能比我们想象的更近。
If the election in Texas is as close as anticipated, there’s a chance that Texas Governor Greg Abbott won’t certify Talarico’s election. If a couple of other states are also hung up in litigation, control of the Senate—and all that entails—could be delayed for months. A constitutional crisis may be much closer than we think.
我的祖父母经历过战时配给，包括限制加油量。大家都抱怨，但为了击败法西斯主义，这些艰辛是值得的。今天柴油价格飞涨也是如此。是的，它们伤害了本应过得更好的普通人。我理解他们的感受。但请把通胀、一场短暂的战争，甚至关于爱泼斯坦文件的虚伪，视为恢复民主所付出的代价。自1969年起独立运作。
My grandparents suffered through wartime rations that included limits on filling their gas tanks. Everyone grumbled, but it was worth the hardship to defeat fascism. The same thing goes for today’s surging diesel prices. Yes, they hurt ordinary people who deserve better. I feel for them. But think of inflation, a short war, and even hypocrisy over the Epstein files as the price we pay for restoring democracy. Independent since 1969.
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