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新加坡严阵以待,印度尼西亚在烟霾与政治困境中回击邻国Singapore braces as Indonesia slaps back at neighbours amid haze, political woes

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2026年10月27日,新加坡外交部长维文在印度尼西亚雅加达与印尼外交部长阿尔马纳塔·纳西尔会晤时握手。路透社/阿金·迪纳尔·乌尔菲亚娜Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan shakes hands with Indonesia's Foreign Minister Arrmanatha Nasir during their meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia, October 27, 2026. REUTERS/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana

印度尼西亚对邻国的抨击预计将持续,其深陷困境的政府试图钝化外界对其处理福利项目、市场监管以及持续野火导致烟霾笼罩该地区的批评。

Indonesia's swipes at its neighbours are set to last as its embattled government tries to blunt criticism of its handling of welfare programmes, market regulation and persistent wildfires that have choked the region in haze.

新加坡尤其成为雅加达强硬言辞的攻击目标,印尼官员警告朝圣者避免在该城邦中转。

Singapore, in particular has been the target of sharpened rhetoric from Jakarta, with Indonesian officials warning pilgrims to avoid transiting through the city-state.

雅加达还削减了对新加坡的天然气供应,其能源部长称“所谓的兄弟姐妹”不应就履行合同问题对印尼说教。

Jakarta has also trimmed gas supply to Singapore with its energy minister saying "so-called brothers and sisters" should not lecture Indonesia on honouring contracts.

新加坡试图淡化这场争端,其外长本周访问印尼会见总统普拉博沃·苏比安托。但该城邦也传召了在印尼种植园涉嫌引发火灾的公司代表。

Singapore has tried to play down the spat and its foreign minister made a visit to Indonesia this week to meet President Prabowo Subianto. But the city-state has also summoned representatives of companies suspected of having fires on their plantations in Indonesia.

分析人士表示,随着新加坡和马来西亚抱怨烟霾,雅加达的民族主义言论愈演愈烈,只要印尼的困境依然存在,这种言论就可能持续。

Analysts say Jakarta's nationalistic rhetoric, which intensified when Singapore and Malaysia complained about the haze, will likely stay as long as Indonesia's woes remain.

印尼詹达尔·阿赫马德·亚尼大学的约哈内斯·苏拉伊曼表示,普拉博沃经常将问题归咎于外部势力,而拥有华裔多数人口的新加坡是一个容易的攻击目标。“在现任政府领导下,强度被推到了最高级,”他说。

Prabowo has often blamed foreign actors for problems and Singapore, with its majority Chinese population, is an easy target, said Yohanes Sulaiman, of Indonesia's Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani. "The intensity is pushed to 11 under this administration," he said.

印尼政府传播办公室主任夏甘达·纳因戈兰周五对路透社表示,雅加达继续寻求与新加坡保持密切关系,外长的访问证明两国关系并未紧张。

Syahganda Nainggolan, chief of the Indonesian government’s communications office, told Reuters on Friday that Jakarta continues to seek close relations with Singapore, and the visit by the foreign minister proves the two countries' relations are not strained.

他说,削减天然气供应是出于国内供应考量,只是“碰巧与一种看似紧张的局势重合”。普拉博沃已对国际批评进行反击,包括全球指数提供商明晟(MSCI)的降级威胁,这已将印尼市场推入动荡。

He said the gas cuts were due to domestic supply considerations and only "coincided with a seemingly tense situation." Prabowo has pushed back against international criticism, including a downgrade threat from global index provider MSCI, which has sent Indonesia's markets into turmoil.

一名前印尼官员指责新加坡主权财富基金在 MSCI 施压事件中扮演了角色,但未提供证据,该指控被一些“点赞”过相关内容的知名政府人物的社交媒体账号放大传播。这些基金否认有任何牵涉。

One former Indonesian official blamed Singapore sovereign wealth funds for having a role in the MSCI pressure, but offered no evidence, with the accusation amplified by social media accounts that were "liked" by prominent government figures. The funds denied any involvement.

Yohanes 表示,MSCI 降级威胁在火灾发生后,以及标志性免费午餐计划出现食物中毒和腐败问题之际,加剧了普拉博沃政府面临的困境。

Yohanes said the MSCI downgrade threat compounded problems for Prabowo's administration after the fires, as well as food poisoning and corruption issues at a signature free lunch programme.

普拉博沃的支持率大幅下滑,根据一项民调,本月其支持率为 44.5%,而去年底为 81.2%。本周,印尼多个城市爆发抗议活动,抗议政府对火灾的应对。

Prabowo's popularity has fallen sharply, with his approval rating reaching 44.5% this month according to one survey, from 81.2% late last year. Protests occurred in several Indonesian cities this week over his government's response to the fires.

最新的紧张局势与以往印尼在国内动荡时期批评新加坡、马来西亚和西方等外部势力的情形相似。

The latest tensions mirror previous episodes where Indonesia has criticised external forces such as Singapore, Malaysia and the West during periods of domestic strife.

新加坡面积大致相当于纽约市,人口 620 万。1998 年,时任印尼总统在谈及亚洲金融危机时,曾贬低新加坡为一个“不是朋友的‘小红点’”。

Singapore, roughly the size of New York City and with a 6.2 million population, was in 1998 disparaged by Indonesia's president at the time as a "little red dot" that was not a friend when talking about the Asian Financial Crisis. In the 1960s, there was outright violence when Indonesian President Sukarno launched a campaign that resulted in 42 bombing attempts in Singapore during a period called the "konfrontasi", while Indonesia faced hyperinflation and instability at home.

20 世纪 60 年代,印尼总统苏加诺发动了一场运动,导致在被称为“konfrontasi”(对抗)的时期内,新加坡遭遇 42 起炸弹袭击企图,而印尼国内则面临恶性通货膨胀和动荡不安。两国现任和前任官员本周寻求平息事态。

Current and former officials from both countries sought to calm the waters this week. "Differences are to be expected," Singapore's foreign minister Vivian Balakrishnan told media on Wednesday.

新加坡外长维文周三对媒体表示:“分歧在所难免,有时甚至会出现激烈的言辞交锋。”

"Even polemic statements sometimes, from time to time," he said.

前印尼驻新加坡大使 Suryo Pratomo 表示,一些印尼部长的言论是即时反应,并非政府政策。他说:“印尼和新加坡的关系是互补的,而非竞争的。”

Suryo Pratomo, a former Indonesian ambassador to Singapore, said the comments made by some Indonesian ministers were immediate reactions and not administration policy. "Indonesia and Singapore's relationship is complementary, not competitive," he said.

新加坡是印度尼西亚最大的外国直接投资来源国,去年投资额达174亿美元。印度尼西亚还依赖通过新加坡进口燃料和连接全球互联网海缆。

Singapore is Indonesia's largest source of foreign direct investment at $17.4 billion last year. Indonesia is also reliant on fuel imports and global internet cables through Singapore.

“这是茶杯里的风暴,”外交政策分析师德维·福尔图纳·安瓦尔说。

“It’s a storm in a teacup,” said Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a foreign policy analyst.

但她补充道,存在“敏感的民族主义”,这导致印度尼西亚对其他国家被视为的轻视和干涉更加敏感。

But there is “prickly nationalism” that leads Indonesia to be more sensitive to perceived slights and interference from other countries, she added.

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