美联储在最近的会议上决定维持利率目标不变，放弃了本来会是六周内第二次加息的行动。联邦基金利率目标维持在3.75%至4%之间，联邦公开市场委员会有两名委员持异议。美联储的决定值得称赞。虽然一些人可能认为近期的通胀证明加息是合理的，但总体价格的上涨几乎完全是由能源成本上升所推动的。事实是，世界上没有任何一家央行曾通过提高房屋净值信贷额度的成本来降低一桶原油的价格。
At its recent meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain its interest rate target, forgoing a hike that would have been the second in six weeks. The target federal funds rate remained between 3.75 percent and 4 percent, with two members of the Federal Open Market Committee dissenting. The Fed should be commended for its decision. While some may argue that recent inflation justified a rate hike, the increase in aggregate prices was almost entirely predicated on energy cost increases. The fact is that no central bank on earth has ever lowered the price of a barrel of crude by raising the cost of a home equity line of credit.
过去一年消费者价格上涨了3.7%。能源上涨了20%，汽油上涨了34%。仅能源一项就占了这3.7%中的约1.4个百分点——与住房大致相当，而住房通常主导该指数，权重超过三分之一。剔除能源冲击后，通胀图景会发生巨大变化。经济学家乃至美联储都知道，能源是最易波动的组成部分，这正是他们关注核心通胀的原因——该指数剔除了食品和能源价格。
Consumer prices are up 3.7 percent over the past year. Energy is up 20 percent and gasoline 34 percent. Energy alone accounts for about 1.4 points of that 3.7 — around the same as housing, which normally drives the index and carries more than a third of its weight. When the energy shock is stripped out, the inflation picture changes dramatically. Economists, and indeed the Fed, know that energy is the most volatile component, which is why they point to core inflation, the index that leaves out food and energy prices.
然而，即便是核心通胀，也可能无法全面反映油价变化究竟在多大程度上渗透到整个经济中。问题在于，核心通胀是按类别剔除价格，而不是按驱动因素剔除。尽管航空燃油是航空公司支付的最高成本之一，但机票价格却被计入核心通胀；过去一年机票价格上涨了22%。同样被计入的还有卡车运输和快递费用，这些费用已融入购物中心里几乎所有商品的价格之中。
However, even that might not provide the full picture of just how much oil price changes permeate the entire economy. The issue is that core removes prices by category, not by what drives them. Despite jet fuel being one of the highest costs an airline pays, airline fares are counted within core; fares are up 22 percent over the year. So are the trucking and delivery charges baked into the price of nearly everything in shopping malls.
要找到更好的方法，就需要提出这样一个问题：如果能源以及能源密集型程度最高的商品和服务以2%的正常速度上涨，同时衡量其他所有商品的实际价格，那么通胀率会是多少？
Reaching a better methodology would require asking this: What would inflation have been if energy and the goods and services that are most energy intensive had risen at a normal 2 percent rate while measuring the realized prices of everything else?
按照劳工部自己为消费者价格指数（CPI）设定的权重计算，过去一年的通胀率为2.1%，过去三个月约为2.5%。逐月来看，即便原油价格从80美元出头的低位升至100美元以上，这一衡量指标的月度涨幅仍分别为0.20%、0.22%和0.21%。如果对个人消费支出价格指数——美联储偏好的通胀衡量方式——采用同样的方法，该数字同比仍为2.6%。
Using the Labor Department's own weights for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the answer is 2.1 percent over the past year and about 2.5 percent over the past three months. Month by month, even as crude oil rose from the low $80s to above $100, this measure was 0.20, 0.22, and 0.21 percent, respectively. If we apply the same methodology to the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s preferred method of measuring inflation, that figure is still at 2.6 percent year over year.
这其中包括10月29日发布的9月个人消费支出价格指数最新数据，而这一天正是美联储会议后的第二天，进一步印证了美联储做出了正确的选择。美联储自己的地区联储银行通过另一种计算也得出了相同结论。达拉斯联储的“截尾均值”指标剔除每月最大的价格波动，8月降至2.2%，为年内最低读数。克利夫兰联储的中位数价格指数9月为2.6%。
This includes the latest September Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data that was released on Oct. 29, the day after the Fed meeting, further reinforcing that the Fed made the right choice. The Fed's own regional banks also reach the same conclusion through a different calculation. The Dallas Fed's "trimmed mean" measure, which discards the largest price swings each month, fell to 2.2 percent in August, its lowest reading of the year. The Cleveland Fed's median price index was at 2.6 percent in September.
这些方法中的每一种都表明，通胀率与目标相差不到一个百分点。8月，美联储主席凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔辩称，通胀是“普遍性的”，因为政府价格指数中199个类别中有超过一半的涨幅超过3%。这种说法的问题在于，它对所有商品类别一视同仁，而不论每一类在家庭预算中占多大比重。上述指标表明，当考虑到各类项目在家庭预算中所占的份额时，通胀并非普遍存在，而是在很大程度上仅限于依赖石油的项目。
Every one of these methods says that inflation is within a point of the target. In August, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh argued at Jackson Hole that inflation is "widespread" because more than half of the 199 categories in the government's price index rose faster than 3 percent. The problem with this framing is that it equally weighs all goods categories, regardless of how much of a family’s budget each constitutes. The above measures show that when one accounts for what portion of household budgets go to various items, inflation is not widespread; it is instead largely limited to oil-dependent items.
在这种情况下，几乎没有理由动用一种代价由整个经济承担的粗暴工具。10月加息本会给美国人带来不必要的压力。家庭将面临更高的汽车贷款和信用卡还款。小企业借贷的成本也会更高。
In these circumstances, there was little justification to reach for a blunt instrument whose costs fall on the entire economy. An October hike would have put unwarranted pressure on Americans. Families would have faced higher payments on car loans and credit cards. Small businesses would have paid more to borrow.
更何况，利率变动的影响需要一年甚至更长时间才能充分渗透到整个经济中，这意味着一次加息的全部效果本会持续得远比当前的能源冲击更久。美联储在10月维持利率不变是正确的，而且今后他们也应当更加重视那些能够反映我们今天所看到的这类狭窄价格冲击的指标。无论是“截尾均值”，还是将能源密集型商品的价格涨幅控制在2%，公众都有权知道究竟是什么在推动价格变化，这反过来也能让他们更清楚地了解长期趋势。
Not to mention the fact that the effects of an interest rate change take a year or more to fully suffuse through the economy, meaning the full effects of a hike would have persisted far longer than the current energy shock. The Fed was right to hold rates in October, and moving forward, they should also give greater weight to measures that account for the kind of narrow price shocks that we see today. Whether it’s the “trimmed mean” or holding energy-intensive goods to 2 percent, the public deserves to know what specifically is driving price changes, which in turn also provides them with greater clarity on long-run trends.
沃什还表示，未来的一些会议将聚焦货币政策战略，而不仅仅是设定利率。这对于认真对待他上任后所设立的各工作组提交的报告是个好兆头，尤其是那两个分别研究改进美联储制定政策所用数据以及美联储资产负债表适当规模的工作组。利率是一个强有力的杠杆，但必须针对那些对利率变化有反应的通货膨胀压力。
Warsh also indicated that some future meetings would focus on monetary policy strategy, not just rate setting. This bodes well for taking seriously the reports from the taskforces he created upon taking office, particularly the two looking at improving the data the Fed uses to make policy and the appropriate size of the Fed's balance sheet. Interest rates are a powerful lever but must be targeted towards inflation pressures that are responsive to interest rate changes.
加息并不能纠正由中东战争引发的能源冲击。迈克尔·福肯德是美国优先政策研究所经济与贸易政策联席主席、人工智能与新兴技术政策主席，曾任美国财政部副部长。杰夫·施拉根豪夫是美国优先政策研究所经济与贸易政策主任。
Higher rates do not correct for an energy shock derived from a war in the Middle East. Michael Faulkender is co-chair, Economy and Trade Policy; chair, AI and Emerging Technology Policy at AFPI and former deputy secretary of the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Jeff Schlagenhauf is director of Economy and Trade Policy at AFPI.