
唐纳德·特朗普总统计划在中期选举后恢复对伊朗的打击,届时他的国内政治权力将在其任期最后两年内减弱,而他的关注点预计将转向外交政策。
President Donald Trump is planning to resume strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, with his domestic political power set to wane during his final two years in office, and his attention expected to shift to foreign policy.
据三位获准匿名分享敏感讨论内容的海湾阿拉伯高级官员透露,特朗普政府已向海湾盟友通报,准备在11月4日(中期选举次日)发动一轮短暂而猛烈的打击。
The Trump administration has briefed Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense round of strikes as soon as Nov. 4, the day after the midterms, according to three senior Gulf Arab officials, granted anonymity to share sensitive discussions.
《华尔街日报》此前曾报道过特朗普政府向海湾阿拉伯国家进行的通报。华盛顿的海湾盟友正大力推动降级局势,担心伊朗将如何报复。
The Wall Street Journal reported earlier on the Trump administration’s briefings to Gulf Arab countries. Washington’s Gulf allies are pushing hard to de-escalate, worried about how Iran will retaliate.
一位海湾官员表示,如果一些海湾国家反对美国利用其境内基地实施打击,他们“不会感到惊讶”。
One Gulf official said they “would not be surprised” if some Gulf states pushed back on U.S. carrying out strikes from bases in their countries.
自9月1日以来,美国尚未打击伊朗,距离华盛顿与以色列发动的战争已过去六个多月,那场战争导致伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊丧生。
The U.S. has not struck Iran since Sept. 1, more than six months into the war Washington launched with Israel that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
特朗普承诺在中期选举前不发动新的袭击,而伊朗持续威胁霍尔木兹海峡这一关键水道的航运安全,美国则正在封锁伊朗港口以向德黑兰施压。
Trump has pledged no new attacks before the midterms, while Iran has continued to threaten shipping traffic in the vital Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. is blockading Iranian ports to pressure Tehran.
一位未获授权公开发言的白宫官员表示:“我们不对可能存在也可能不存在的敏感军事计划发表评论。特朗普总统将所有选项摆在桌面上,以确保伊朗永远无法拥有核武器。”
“We do not comment on sensitive military plans that may or may not exist. President Trump keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon,” said a White House official who was not authorized to speak publicly.
特朗普周五表示,与伊朗的战争“将很快结束”。“我们正在狠狠地打击他们,”特朗普在接受堪萨斯城电台KCMO采访时说。特朗普预测,“我们将拥有一个无核伊朗。伊朗不能拥有核武器,他们也不会拥有核武器,这将很快结束。”但特朗普进一步加大对伊朗军事施压的路径,因共和党基本盘在伊朗问题和美国在世界上的角色上日益分裂而变得复杂。
Trump said Friday that the war with Iran “is going to be over very soon.”“We’re knocking the hell out of them,” Trump said in an interview with Kansas City radio station KCMO. Trump predicted that “we’re going to have a non-nuclear Iran. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and they won’t have a nuclear weapon, and that’s going to end very soon.”But Trump’s path to further increase military pressure on Iran is complicated by a Republican base increasingly split over Iran and America’s role in the world.
“情况很棘手,因为有那个基地,”一位与特朗普核心圈子保持经常联系的前特朗普政府官员说,该官员获准匿名发言,以便坦率谈论特朗普的决策过程。“我想说,特朗普总统关注的是来自伊朗的威胁,不仅是核威胁,还有恐怖主义。”除了试图摧毁伊朗的核计划——其中大部分深埋地下——特朗普还表示,他希望伊朗停止支持代理武装团体,并停止利用恐怖主义在该地区投射力量。
“It’s a tough situation because of the base,” said a former Trump administration official in regular touch with Trump’s inner circle, granted anonymity to speak candidly about Trump’s deliberations. “I would say that what President Trump is focused on is the threat from Iran, not just the nuclear threat, but terrorism.”In addition to trying to destroy Iran’s nuclear program — much of which is lodged deep underground — Trump has said he wants Iran to stop supporting proxy militant groups and using terrorism to project power in the region.
根据皮尤研究中心最近的一项民调,约三分之二的美国人,即65%的人,不赞成唐纳德·特朗普总统处理美国在伊朗军事行动的方式,共和党人和倾向共和党的独立人士对该冲突的看法变得更加负面。
Around two-thirds of Americans, 65 percent disapprove of the way President Donald Trump is handling U.S. military action in Iran, with Republican and Republican-leaning independents growing more negative about the conflict, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey.
特朗普长期以来一直执着于伊朗的核野心,身边一些人预计,一旦中期选举结束,他将更多地关注自己的外交政策遗产。
Trump has long been fixated on Iran’s nuclear ambitions and some around him expect that once the midterms are behind him, he will focus more on his foreign policy legacy.
“他痴迷于不让伊朗获得核武器,”另一位熟悉特朗普政府外交政策决策过程的前特朗普政府官员说。“他深信,通过这次最后的打击,我们可以与伊朗人达成协议,或者最终摧毁他们的核计划。”在周日接受福克斯新闻采访时,特朗普表示,与伊朗核计划有关的、深埋地下的“镐山”可能成为美国的潜在目标。
“He’s obsessed with Iran not getting a nuclear weapon,” said another former Trump administration official who is familiar with Trump administration foreign policy deliberations. “He’s been convinced that with this final attack we can get a deal with the Iranians, or we can finally destroy their nuclear program.”In an interview Sunday with Fox News, Trump said Iran’s Pickaxe mountain, a deeply buried site connected with Iran’s nuclear program, could be a potential U.S. target.
“我们能从太空看清某人衬衫上的徽章,好吗?我们确切知道‘镐山’发生了什么。我们知道其他三个核设施已被夷为平地,”特朗普说。
“We can read the badge on somebody’s shirt from space, okay? We know exactly what’s going on at Pickaxe Mountain. We know the other three [nuclear sites] are obliterated,” Trump said.
上周在佛罗里达州竞选造势活动中,特朗普表示,如果伊朗不同意在其核计划上做出让步,美国将不得不发动更多袭击。
Speaking last week on the campaign trail in Florida, Trump said if Iran doesn’t agree to make concessions on its nuclear program, the U.S. will have to launch more attacks.
“我们可能会再搞一次小型的‘史诗狂怒’行动,”特朗普说,这是五角大楼给美国于2月与以色列发动的轰炸行动起的名字。“或者他们会同意。如果他们聪明的话,就会直接说:‘咱们谈正事吧。’”特朗普团队正在外交上做最后一搏,与此同时美国正在该地区增兵。
“We may do another little Epic Fury,” Trump said, using the name the Pentagon gave to the bombing campaign the U.S. launched with Israel in February. “Or they’ll agree. If they’re smart, they’ll just say, ‘let’s get down to business.’”Trump’s team is making one last push at diplomacy as the U.S. builds up its forces in the region.
据两位知情人士透露,副总统万斯近期给伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书、前伊斯兰革命卫队强硬派指挥官穆赫辛·礼萨伊将军发了一封信,提议伊美官员会晤以重启谈判。这两人因讨论敏感外交事务而获准匿名。
Vice President JD Vance recently sent a letter to Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, a hardline former Revolutionary Guard commander who became secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council in August, pitching a meeting between Iranian and American officials to resume talks, according to two people familiar with the matter, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy.
卡塔尔调解人周五重返德黑兰,推动美伊达成协议,这个小海湾国家在过去一周加大了外交斡旋力度。知情人士之一称,卡塔尔提出了一个为期七天的计划,以解决华盛顿和德黑兰的关切,其中包括双方可采取的建立互信措施。特使贾里德·库什纳和史蒂夫·威特科夫正参与其中,这两位知情人士说。
Qatari mediators were back in Tehran on Friday to push for a deal between the U.S. and Iran as the tiny Gulf state has stepped up its diplomatic efforts over the past week. Qatar has proposed a seven-day plan to address Washington’s and Tehran’s concerns, including confidence-building steps the sides could take, one of the people familiar with the discussions said. Envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are involved, the two people said.
与此同时,美国正派遣第三个航母打击群——由“西奥多·罗斯福”号航母率领——以及约9000名水手和海军陆战队员前往中东,并伴随其他舰艇。美国官员称,这些部队将于11月底抵达。
At the same time, the U.S. is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group, led by the USS Theodore Roosevelt, and some 9,000 sailors and Marines toward the Middle East, alongside other ships. U.S. officials have said these forces will arrive at the end of November.
美国还加强了在该地区的防御部署,向沙特阿拉伯和卡塔尔增派了额外的“爱国者”导弹电池。
The U.S. has also bolstered defenses in the region, moving additional Patriot batteries to Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
在上周警告伊朗大幅升级针对驻中东美军人员的袭击企图后,华盛顿已下令大部分驻沙特阿拉伯政府雇员撤离,并削减了驻黎巴嫩、阿联酋、卡塔尔和约旦使团的人员编制。国务院还援引了对伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装袭击沙特阿拉伯以及该地区可能出现溢出效应的担忧。
Washington has ordered most government employees in Saudi Arabia to leave the country and has reduced staffing at missions in Lebanon, the UAE, Qatar and Jordan after warning last week that Iran has significantly stepped up attempts to attack American personnel stationed in the Middle East. The State Department also cited concerns about attacks on Saudi Arabia from the Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen and possible spillover in the region.
参议员克里斯·墨菲(民主党-康涅狄格州)表示,他最近参加了一场关于特朗普若重启军事行动的战争计划的机密简报会,他说该计划可能包括打击民用基础设施。
Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said he recently attended a classified briefing about Trump’s war plans should he restart military operations, which he said could include targeting civilian infrastructure.
“他们的计划是疯狂的,”他在本周早些时候于华盛顿举行的一个智库活动上说。“他们制定的计划在我看来将导致这场战争的延长和升级,这将对我们的安全利益造成毁灭性打击。”
“Their plan is insane,” he said at a think tank event in Washington earlier this week. “The plan that they have developed will lead in my view to a prolongment and an escalation of this war that will be devastating for our security interests.”