TOKYO -- The International Monetary Fund and World Bank held meetings in Bangkok earlier this month that ended somewhat anticlimactically, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent skipping a Group of 20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors.

Still, Thai leaders likely breathed a sigh of relief at having pulled off an event that drew 15,000 participants from 191 countries and territories. Heavy rains since late September had left parts of the capital flooded, raising concerns about possible disruptions at Suvarnabhumi Airport, the country's main international gateway.

Thailand has changed dramatically since it last hosted the meetings, in 1991. According to the IMF, gross domestic product per capita has risen 4.6-fold to an estimated $8,105 in 2026 from $1,769 all those decades ago, while the poverty rate has plunged to 5% from 50%.

At a special seminar during the annual meetings, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said Thailand's next phase of growth would require higher productivity through investment in digital technology and human capital.

He has a point. But Thailand can hardly afford to ignore the cracks appearing in the economic infrastructure underpinning its growth.

People wade through a flooded street next to submerged vehicles during heavy rain in Bangkok on Sept. 26. The Thai government has yet to complete a flood control program initiated after catastrophic floods 15 years ago.

After catastrophic floods in 2011 paralyzed Thailand's economic heartland and caused economic losses estimated at around $47 billion, the government unveiled an ambitious flood-control program. Yet key drainage channels have not been completed, and the delay contributed to severe damage from the latest flooding.

High-speed rail projects tell a similar story. A northeastern line from Bangkok toward the border with Laos remains unfinished, as does an eastern line intended to connect Suvarnabhumi, Don Mueang and U-Tapao airports with the Eastern Economic Corridor, one of Asia's leading industrial hubs. Both projects got underway a decade ago.

Thailand has long used its extensive network of roads, airports, ports and urban railways to attract foreign investment. But it has been slower to adapt that infrastructure to new realities like climate change. One such challenge is securing better access to the Indian Ocean.

"If we can participate in developing the port, it would provide another option," Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said during a visit to Russia in August, expressing Thailand's interest in joining a Russian-backed project to develop a major port at Dawei in southern Myanmar.

Dawei, some 300 kilometers west of Bangkok, has long offered Thailand a tantalizing but elusive prospect.

In 1996, Thai construction giant Italian-Thai Development (ITD), approached Myanmar's then-military government and reached an agreement to develop an industrial estate in the Dawei area. The project foundered when the Asian financial crisis struck the following year.

It was revived in 2008, when Thailand and Myanmar signed an intergovernmental memorandum of understanding. In November 2010, four days before Myanmar held its first general election in two decades, ITD signed a contract to lead the development.

ITD would lease 250 square kilometers of land for 75 years and transform it into one of the world's largest coastal industrial zones. The total project was estimated to cost $58 billion.

ITD, whose annual revenue then was around $1 billion, could hardly finance such a project on its own. Then-President Premchai Karnasuta said he expected Western economic sanctions on Myanmar to be lifted, anticipating an influx of foreign investment after the country transitioned to civilian rule. But the project's sheer scale made it difficult to attract partners.

Frustrated by the lack of progress, Myanmar's government terminated ITD's contract in 2013 and shifted responsibility to an entity jointly owned by the Thai and Myanmar governments.

Then-President Premchai Karnasuta of Italian-Thai Development visits Dawei in January 2015. The businessman, once dubbed Thailand's "Construction King," could not realize his dream of turning the area into a massive industrial zone.

As Japanese manufacturers operating in Thailand had shown interest in Dawei, Tokyo also joined the initiative through funding by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation.

When the revamped project was put out to tender, ITD won the right to develop an initial 27-sq.-km section.

But financing problems stalled progress again. At the end of 2020, Myanmar notified ITD that its contract would be terminated for a second time. Thailand, Myanmar and Japan were discussing yet another overhaul when Myanmar's military seized power in February 2021, effectively putting the project on ice.

Once again subject to Western sanctions, Myanmar's military government turned to Russia, a major source of military equipment that has also sought a foothold on the Indian Ocean. In February 2025, the sides agreed to cooperate to develop Dawei, effectively scrapping earlier arrangements involving Thailand and Japan.

As the Dawei project languished, Bangkok began considering another way to secure Indian Ocean access, entirely within Thailand.

In September 2020, then-Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha instructed the Transport Ministry to study a "land bridge" project.

The plan called for building large ports on opposite coasts of the Malay Peninsula, then connecting them with railways, expressways and oil pipelines; special economic zones would be set up around both ports.

By allowing cargo traveling between the Pacific and Indian oceans to bypass the Strait of Malacca, one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints, proponents said the project could turn Thailand into an Indo-Pacific logistics hub.

Thailand already has a commercial port at Ranong on the Andaman Sea. But with a water depth of only 8 meters, it is unsuitable for large vessels.

Authorities therefore considered a new site capable of handling large container ships and providing enough land for a special economic zone.

The commercial port at Ranong, Thailand, pictured in February 2022. The Andaman Sea port is too shallow to handle large vessels.

The government of Srettha Thavisin, which took office in 2023, inherited the project and held overseas investment roadshows to raise funding for the 1 trillion-baht ($29.7 billion) undertaking.

The response was lukewarm. Questions persisted over the enormous investment required, the feasibility of transferring cargo between the two coasts and potential environmental damage.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in February heightened awareness of the risks posed by maritime chokepoints, bringing renewed attention to the land bridge proposal.

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul in May set up a committee chaired by Ekniti to review the project. The committee recommended abandoning the plan, citing concerns about its commercial viability and the burden on public finances. Instead, it proposed expanding the existing port at Ranong and extending rail and expressway links from Bangkok. And then Dawei came back into the picture.

Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar's former military chief, became the country's president in April. Thailand has backed his return to ASEAN summits after Myanmar's leadership was excluded following the military takeover.

For Thailand, it is an obvious priority to improve relations with a country with which it shares a roughly 2,400-km border. Possible cooperation on access to the Indian Ocean should be seen in that context as well.

After all the twists and turns, Thailand's search for an Indian Ocean gateway has essentially come back to two options: Dawei or Ranong.

Dawei has obvious attractions. Around 300 km west of Bangkok, it is relatively close to the capital and offers ample space for development. But any progress depends heavily on Myanmar. Even if Dawei were to be built, goods moving between the two countries would have to clear border controls.

Roads through the mountains in Myanmar remain underdeveloped, with steep gradients making the route difficult for large trucks. The corridor also passes through territory controlled by the Karen National Liberation Army, a powerful armed ethnic group, raising security concerns.

Developing Ranong, meanwhile, could take place entirely within Thailand, eliminating the need for border crossings. The route is largely flat and carries no security risks.

But Ranong is around 600 km from Bangkok, and the existing port lacks sufficient space for large-scale development.

There is another option. When Min Aung Hlaing made an official visit to Thailand in early August, improving connectivity between Dawei and Ranong was among the themes for future cooperation, according to people familiar with the matter.

The two ports might even complement each other. Large vessels could call at Dawei, with smaller feeder ships providing connections to Ranong.

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, right, and Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing, second from right, discussed potential cooperation in developing Myanmar's Dawei area at their summit meeting in Bangkok on Aug. 6. Whichever option Thailand chooses, the more fundamental issue is policy consistency.

Myanmar's political upheavals do not alone explain Dawei's "lost 30 years." Thailand also has undergone military coups, in 2006 and 2014, while governments have repeatedly been removed through Constitutional Court rulings. The political churn has been a major obstacle for long-term infrastructure policy.

For decades, Thailand prospered by looking east, with Japan as its leading trade partner. But Japan's economic power has waned, and ties with China and the U.S. are facing protectionism and other risks. Like other ASEAN economies, Thailand can no longer afford to focus overwhelmingly on the east. It needs to explore western markets including Europe, India, the Middle East and Africa.

The IMF's latest economic outlook, released in October, forecasts Thai economic growth of 2.1% in 2026 and 2027, well below the 4.9% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027 projected for ASEAN as a whole.

Thailand once led Southeast Asia's industrialization, but it has become a regional laggard, with some even labeling it the "sick man of Asia." To arrest its fall, Thailand first needs to concentrate on finishing infrastructure projects it has already started.