
曼谷 — 来自世界各地的财政官员和央行行长将于本周在曼谷聚会,参加国际货币基金组织的年度会议,会议将于周一开始,讨论预计将聚焦于通胀、人工智能和气候变化。
BANGKOK -- Finance officials and central bankers from around the world will gather in Bangkok this week for the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting, starting on Monday, with discussions expected to center on inflation, artificial intelligence and climate change.
泰国时隔三十余年首次主办国际货币基金组织和世界银行年度会议,上一次承办此次活动是在1997年亚洲金融危机之前。年度会议通常在华盛顿连续举办两年,随后每三年轮流移至一个成员国举办。官员们上次在亚洲聚会是在2018年,地点在印度尼西亚度假岛巴厘岛。"今年的会议正值许多国家预计将面临日益艰难的货币政策决策之际,因为伊朗局势恶化导致的油价上涨正在推动能源通胀,而持续加剧的厄尔尼诺现象也引发了对食品[价格]通胀的担忧,"东京第一生命研究所首席经济学家西濑亨说道。
Thailand is hosting the IMF and World Bank annual meetings for the first time in over three decades, having last welcomed the event before the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The annual meetings typically take place in Washington for two consecutive years, then move to a member country every third year. The officials last gathered in Asia in 2018, on the Indonesian resort island of Bali. "This year's meetings come at a time when many countries are expected to face increasingly difficult monetary policy decisions, as higher oil prices stemming from worsening tensions over Iran fuel energy inflation, while an intensifying and prolonged El Nino raises concerns about food [price] inflation," said Toru Nishihama, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo.
中东地区的长期冲突推高了能源价格,全球范围内的通胀压力随之上升,尤其是对日本、韩国和新加坡等进口依赖型经济体影响尤为显著。
The protracted conflict in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices, stoking inflation around the world, particularly in import-dependent economies such as Japan, South Korea and Singapore.
各国央行正在走钢丝。一些央行加快了加息步伐以对抗通胀,而另一些则暂停了进一步加息,担心紧缩的货币政策可能进一步拖累经济增长。
Central banks are walking a tightrope. Some have accelerated the pace of interest rate hikes to combat inflation, while others have held off on additional rate increases out of concern that tighter monetary policy could further slow growth.
本周为期一周的讨论另一个重点将是全球人工智能投资热潮及其更广泛的经济影响。西濑亨指出,随着全球利率上升,“投资正日益流向人工智能和半导体领域,这加剧了与能源和基础设施等其他全球优先事项之间的资本竞争。我将密切关注国际机构如何评估这一趋势带来的风险,以及他们对此的担忧程度,”他说。
Another focus during the weeklong discussions will be the global investment boom in AI and its wider economic implications. Nishihama pointed out that with interest rates rising globally, "Investment is increasingly flowing into AI and semiconductors, intensifying competition for capital with other global priorities such as energy and infrastructure. I will be watching how international institutions assess the risks posed by this trend and how concerned they are about it," he said.
IMF总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔吉耶娃周三在新加坡的开幕致辞中表示,全球经济正被拉向两个方向:一个是负面的能源供给冲击,另一个是来自人工智能的正面需求冲击。"这两股力量的综合影响在全球范围内高度不均衡,"她表示。
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in her opening address on Wednesday in Singapore that the global economy is being pulled in two directions: a negative energy supply shock and a positive demand shock from AI. "The combined impact of these two forces is highly uneven across the world," she said.
格奥尔吉耶娃还警告称,"人工智能建设热潮具有通胀性。能源和粮食冲击具有通胀性。关税、国防支出和高公共债务也可能具有通胀性。"此次聚会恰逢曼谷及周边地区遭遇严重洪水,促使当局制定了应对会议期间可能出现的进一步洪水的应急计划。
Georgieva also cautioned that the "AI building boom is inflationary. The energy and food shocks are inflationary. Tariffs, defense spending and high public debt can be inflationary." The gathering comes shortly after severe floods hit Bangkok and surrounding areas, prompting authorities to draw up contingency plans for further flooding during the meetings.
厄尔尼诺天气现象预计将持续至2027年2月,已给亚洲带来干旱和气温升高。印度尼西亚加里曼丹省的河流已经干涸。与此同时,日本首都经历了创纪录的37天连续降雨,而一场特大洪水席卷了尼泊尔北部。
The El Nino weather phenomenon, which is expected to run through February 2027 has brought drought and elevated temperatures across Asia. Rivers have dried up in Indonesia's Kalimantan provinces. Japan's capital, meanwhile, experienced a record-breaking 37-day stretch of rain and a massive flood tore through northern Nepal.
随着多个紧迫因素对经济造成压力,全球各地的债券收益率正在攀升,因为许多国家的财政状况正在恶化。"我们在高债务发达经济体中看不到果断行动,而此时亟需的是可信的中期财政紧缩计划,在某些情况下还需通过前置财政措施予以支持,包括减轻货币政策的一些压力,"IMF的格奥尔吉耶娃警告道。"亚洲通过贸易、能源和金融渠道特别容易受到外部冲击的影响,因此讨论该地区如何增强对这种冲击的韧性非常重要,"日本NLI研究所的经济学家斋藤诚说道。
With several pressing factors weighing on the economy, bond yields are climbing around the world as the fiscal picture worsens in many countries. "We don't see decisive action in the high-debt advanced economies, where the need of the hour is for credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plans, supported in some cases by upfront fiscal measures, including to take some of the pressure off monetary policy," the IMF's Georgieva warned. "Asia is particularly vulnerable to external shocks through trade, energy and financial channels, making it important to discuss how the region can strengthen its resilience to such shocks," said Makoto Saito, an economist at Japan's NLI Research Institute.
一则宣传IMF和世界银行会议的标志牌于10月8日在曼谷会议场地旁的公园内展出。
A sign publicizing the IMF and World Bank meetings is displayed in a park next to the meeting venue in Bangkok, on Oct. 8.
这些会议将持续到周日。除了发布IMF的《世界经济展望报告》之外,会议还将设有全体会议、美国联邦储备委员会主席凯文·沃什的炉边谈话以及一系列其他活动和讨论。20国集团财政部长和央行行长将于周四在IMF会议期间聚会。
The meetings run through Sunday. In addition to the release of the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the meetings will feature a plenary session, a fireside chat with U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and a range of other events and discussions. The Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors will gather on Thursday, on the margins of the IMF meetings.
曼谷举办这些活动“象征着亚洲在全球经济中的重要性日益提升”,斋藤表示。“亚洲不仅是全球增长的关键驱动力,而且其对世界经济的影响也通过贸易、供应链、投资和金融市场不断扩大,”他指出。
Bangkok's hosting of the events "symbolizes Asia's growing importance in the global economy," said Saito. "Asia is not only a key driver of global growth, but its influence on the world economy is also expanding through trade, supply chains, investment and financial markets," he noted.
东盟尤其具有“与主要经济体的紧密经济联系,并且随着企业重组供应链,其重要性日益增加”,斋藤说。“在全球经济日益碎片化的背景下,在该地区举办会议提供了一个机会,以在全球经济整体背景下讨论亚洲面临的挑战和增长机遇。”泰国希望借此次会议展示其增长潜力并吸引新投资,泰国副总理兼财政部长埃克尼蒂·尼蒂坦普拉帕斯表示,他强调先进技术是推动该国迈向高收入地位的关键领域。
ASEAN, in particular, has "strong economic ties with major economies and has become increasingly important as companies restructure their supply chains," Saito said. "At a time of growing fragmentation in the global economy, holding the meetings in the region provides an opportunity to discuss Asia's challenges and growth opportunities in the context of the global economy as a whole." Thailand hopes to use the meetings to showcase its growth potential and attract new investment, Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said, highlighting advanced technologies as an area that could propel the country toward high-income status.
“在地缘政治冲突持续的情况下,各方都在寻找可搬迁的地点,我们将利用这个机会向世界表明,泰国是投资的理想之地,”埃克尼蒂周三对记者表示。
"With geopolitical conflicts going on, everybody is seeking a place to relocate, and we will use this opportunity to tell the world that Thailand is the appropriate place to invest," Ekniti told reporters on Wednesday.