
曼谷10月16日电:在伊朗战争带来的全球通胀压力以及人工智能驱动的需求冲击主导了本周国际货币基金组织(IMF)会议的讨论之后,日本央行在定于本月召开的关键利率审查会议前,可能会面临重新加快加息步伐的压力。
BANGKOK, Oct 16 : The Bank of Japan may face renewed pressure to increase the pace of interest rate hikes ahead of a key rate review this month, after global inflationary pressures from the Iran war and AI-driven demand shock dominated discussions at this week's IMF meetings.
日本央行行长植田和男将把他在曼谷与七国集团(G7)和二十国集团(G20)同僚讨论所得出的见解带回国内,其中包括美国同行凯文·沃什所描述的全球决策者应对通胀的“共同挑战”。
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will bring home insights from his discussions with G7 and G20 colleagues in Bangkok, including what his US counterpart Kevin Warsh described as a "common challenge" among global policymakers of dealing with inflation.
沃什表示:“我们有不同的工具,不同的步骤,但如果要我回顾过去几个月……大多数地方的货币政策都在同步收紧,这意味着没有搭便车者。”
"We have different tools, different sequences, but I would say if I look back over the last few months ... it was a synchronous tightening in monetary policy in most places around the world, and that means there's no free riders," Warsh said.
消息人士告诉路透社,日本央行刚刚在9月加息,许多官员倾向于在10月29日至30日的会议上按兵不动,以等待更多关于以往加息如何影响经济和金融状况的数据。
Having just raised interest rates in September, many in the BOJ prefer to stand pat at its October 29-30 meeting to await more data on how past rate hikes have affected economic and financial conditions, sources have told Reuters.
分析人士表示,即便如此,日本央行仍可能放弃有关政策前景的鹰派信号,为12月加息留出空间,因为人工智能需求冲击加剧了高昂能源成本以及日元疲软导致进口价格上涨所带来的通胀压力。
Even so, the BOJ is likely to drop hawkish signals on the policy outlook that leave scope for a December hike, with the AI demand shock adding to inflationary pressures from high energy costs and rising import prices due to a weak yen, analysts say.
植田和男预计将于周五晚些时候在曼谷举行新闻发布会,届时各方将密切关注有关未来加息步伐和时机的线索。
Ueda will likely hold a news briefing later on Friday in Bangkok, which will be closely watched for clues on the pace and timing of future interest rate hikes.
通胀的上行风险在本周的年会上,国际货币基金组织(IMF)强调了全球经济对中东战争等外部冲击的韧性,由于人工智能相关需求的旺盛,痛苦得到了缓解。
UPSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION During this week's annual meetings, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted the resilience of the global economy against external shocks such as the Middle East war, with the pain mitigated by brisk AI-related demand.
不过,全球决策者也警告称,人工智能热潮带来的通胀压力可能需要进一步收紧货币政策——考虑到日本央行目前的借贷成本仍然较低,这一信息对日本央行尤为重要。
Global policymakers, however, also warned of the inflationary pressure from the AI boom that could warrant further monetary tightening - a message particularly relevant to the BOJ given its still-low borrowing costs.
此类讨论可能会影响日本央行在本月利率审查会议上发布的新的季度增长和通胀预测,这可能会提供关于其未来加息速度的线索。
Such discussions may affect the BOJ's new quarterly growth and inflation projections due at this month's rate review, which may offer clues on how quickly it could raise rates ahead.
此前,日本央行已通过在6月和9月加息,从谨慎的方法转向了更侧重于对抗通胀风险的政策。
Already, the BOJ has pivoted away from its cautious approach towards a policy more focused on combatting inflationary risks by hiking rates in June and September.
然而,在其政策利率为1.25%的情况下,实际借贷成本为负,而通胀率徘徊在2%的目标附近,并且随着企业将投入成本转嫁给家庭,通胀率预计会加速上升。
And yet, at 1.25 per cent, its policy rate means real borrowing costs are negative with inflation hovering around its 2 per cent target and seen accelerating as firms pass on input costs to households.
美国财政部副部长埃琳·布朗周五施压日本央行继续收紧政策,以防止日元无序下跌,她表示日本必须调整货币政策,以反映其已不再面临通缩环境。
US Treasury Undersecretary Erin Browne kept pressure on the BOJ to continue tightening to prevent disorderly yen falls, saying on Friday Japan must adjust its monetary policy to reflect that it no longer faces a deflationary environment.
美联储在10月27日至28日会议上的利率决定也可能通过对日元的影响来影响日本央行的辩论,因为美日之间仍然较大的利率差距导致日元走弱并增加了进口成本。
The US Federal Reserve's rate decision at its October 27-28 meeting could also affect the BOJ's debate through any impact on the yen, as the still-wide US-Japan rate divergence has caused the currency to weaken and increased import costs.
日本央行审议委员小枝淳子周四表示,鉴于通胀存在相当大的上行风险,央行不应对加息过于谨慎,这释放了近期可能提高借贷成本的信号。
BOJ board member Junko Koeda said on Thursday the central bank should not become overly cautious about raising interest rates given considerable upside risks to inflation, signalling the chance of a near-term hike in borrowing costs.