中东常被比作一个魔方，牵一发而动全身。合成图：《卫报》设计／盖蒂图片社 在一个反复无常、毫无道德的美国总统制造的混乱、灾难与战争之中，各国正日益意识到被美国排斥和欺凌的危险。世界从未像现在这样彼此紧密相连。德黑兰秘密的核心会议、也门西南部的山区、顿巴斯的草原、加沙那片依然血腥的荒原，甚至巴黎和米兰优雅的林荫大道上发生的一切，都有着一条共同的线索。
The Middle East has been likened to a Rubik’s Cube, whereby a single move can inadvertently affect the whole picture. Composite: Guardian Design/Getty Images Amid the chaos, havoc and war caused by a capricious and amoral US president, countries are waking up to the dangers of being excluded and abused by America ever has there been a time when the world has been more interconnected than now. What happens in the secretive inner councils in Tehran, the mountains of south-west Yemen, the steppe of the Donbas, the still bloody wasteland that is Gaza and even the elegant boulevards of Paris and Milan have a common thread.
不把一组冲突编织进另一组冲突之中，就无法理解任何一组冲突，而正是这种相互依存，使每一个问题都如此具有传染性、如此层层叠加、如此难以解决，让世界仿佛被困在一口濒临爆炸的高压锅里。
One cannot understand one set of conflicts without weaving them into another, and it is this very interdependence that is making each problem so contagious, layered and difficult to resolve, leaving the world to live as if trapped inside a pressure cooker on the brink of an explosion.
似乎每个夜晚世界都跌到了集体的谷底，可一觉醒来，清晨却听到下方传来的敲击声。
Each night it seems the world has reached a collective rock bottom, only to wake in the morning to the sound of knocking from below.
在这个互不合作、无法无天的伟大时代，必须先解决一场危机才能处理另一场危机，这导致了集体的瘫痪，尤其是在世界头号强国完全缺乏明确领导力的情况下。
In this great age of noncooperation and lawlessness, the need for one crisis to be resolved before another can be addressed leads to a collective paralysis, especially in the total absence of clear leadership by the world’s leading power.
印度外交部长苏杰生本周表示：“我们存在的不可分割性渗透到人类活动的方方面面，并随着全球化的推进而不断加深。如今的事实是，任何地方的战争都威胁着所有地方的和平。”在德黑兰北部，一名伊朗女子拍摄一名男子在一幅广告牌上搭建的象征性牢笼中扮演唐纳德·特朗普的表演。
Speaking this week, the Indian external affairs minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, said: “The indivisibility of our existence permeates every aspect of human activity and it has deepened as globalisation has advanced. The fact now is that war anywhere threatens peace everywhere.”An Iranian woman films a man performing as Donald Trump inside a symbolic cell mounted on a billboard in northern Tehran.
唐·巴拉克是唐纳德·特朗普的特使，负责土耳其事务，并就中东问题向总统提供更广泛的建议，他上周在多哈发表讲话时强调了这些脉络，承认他总统和以色列在二月底发动的对伊朗战争带来了意想不到的后果，将“营火变成了森林大火”。
Tom Barrack, Donald Trump’s envoy to Turkey and wider counsellor to the president on the Middle East, in remarks in Doha last week highlighted these threads, admitting the war on Iran launched by his president and Israel in late February had brought unexpected consequences, turning “camp fires into forest fires”.
他将中东比作魔方，一次举动可能会无意中影响整体画面。“当你调整该地区的某一事物时，我们看到的结果是一切都会随之改变。那些意想不到的后果，以及事件发生的连续节奏，是出乎意料的，”巴拉克说。
He likened the Middle East to a Rubik’s Cube, whereby a single move can inadvertently affect the whole picture. “When you adjust one thing in the region what we have seen is everything then changes. Those unintended consequences, and the sequential pace of what is happening, is unexpected,” said Barrack.
他接着承认：“我们开始试图与盟友在伊朗做点什么，这波及到了哈马斯、真主党、六支伊朗民兵组织、胡塞武装，现在又波及到北非。那么，这到底会在哪里停止？美国的干预到底帮了多大忙，还是造成了多大伤害？”在不背离特朗普的前提下，他相当明确地回答了自己的问题。“在更广泛的中东和黎凡特地区，已经发生了23次政权更迭，这些更迭或多或少都受到某种美国之手或影响的推动，而其中没有一奏效。
He then admitted: “We started trying to do something with our allies in Iran that spread through Hamas, Hezbollah, to six Iranian militias, the Houthis and is now going to north Africa. So where does it stop? How much does this US intervention help or hurt?”Without breaking from Trump, he answered his own question pretty unambiguously. “We have had 23 regime changes take place across the greater Middle East and Levant instituted one way or another by some American hand or influence, and none of them have worked.
“每次我们试图干预并更换某人或某个政权，似乎都是个错误，”巴拉克说，他以伊拉克、利比亚和阿富汗为例，但谨慎地避开了伊朗。深层构造性转变 因此，很容易将出错归咎于过度干预主义和失败的多边主义。
“Every time we try to intervene and change the person or the regime, it seems to have been a mistake,” Barrack said, pointing to Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan, but discreetly omitting Iran Deep tectonic transformations So it is easy to blame what has gone wrong on excessive interventionism and failed multilateralism.
在他的新书中，美国国际关系专家查尔斯·库普钱解释道：“世界正在经历深层构造性转变。权力正在国际体系内迅速扩散，使全球政治去中心化，并重新唤醒了大国竞争。”
In his new book, the American international relations expert Charles Kupchan explains: “The world is experiencing deep tectonic transformations. Power is rapidly diffusing across the international system, decentering global politics and reawakening great power competition.
与此同时，数字时代的推进正在侵蚀工业时代的社会契约，造成大规模的社会经济动荡，这种动荡既影响各国内部的政治生活，也影响国家之间的关系。他认为，特朗普是一种系统性且广泛趋势的症状。
“At the same time the advance of the digital era is eroding the social contract of the industrial era producing massive socioeconomic disruption that is affecting political life inside nations as well as relations among them.”Trump, he argues, is a symptom of a trend that is systemic and widespread.
但也很难不相信，在这个相互关联的世界里，一个反复无常、虚荣且无道德底线的美国总统所能造成的破坏性损害已成十倍增长，而这正是我们正在经历的。世界失序遭遇人格障碍。
But it is also hard not to believe that in this interconnected world the disruptive damage that a capricious, vain and amoral US president can inflict has grown tenfold, and that is what we are experiencing. World disorder meets personality disorder.
伊朗战争仍然是特朗普后果最严重的错误，其连锁反应在全球回荡。
The Iran war remains Trump’s most consequential mistake as its repercussions reverberate across the world.
正如巴拉克所暗示的，伊朗战争仍然是特朗普后果最严重、也最扑朔迷离的错误，其连锁反应在全球回荡。任何美国总统都不得不处理伊朗问题，而伊朗问题本身就是体制失灵的产物，是多边体制无法纳入并改变伊朗。但处理伊朗问题的方式取决于特朗普，取决于他的心理。
The Iran war, for instance, as Barrack implied, remains Trump’s most consequential and most mysterious mistake, and its repercussions reverberate across the world. Any US president would have had to address the Iran issue, itself a product of system failure, the inability of the multilateral system to incorporate and change Iran. But the way in which the Iran issue was addressed is down to Trump, and his psyche.
密歇根州联邦参议员民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德一针见血地指出：“人人都能告诉你这是个蠢主意。全世界真的只有一个人有长达40年的计划要把我们拖入这场战争。他是另一个政府的总理[内塔尼亚胡]。他终于找到了那个愿意干这事的蠢蛋。” 阿曼外长、今年2月伊美会谈的调停人，本周在剑桥演讲时提醒听众，在轰炸开始前，关于核心问题——伊朗核计划——的协议已触手可及。
The Democratic candidate for senate in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, put it simply: “Everybody could have told you this is a dumb idea. There was really only one person in the whole world who had a 40-year project to get us to fight this war. He’s a prime minister of another government [Netanyahu]. And he finally found the dumbass who was willing to do it.”The foreign minister of Oman, and mediator in the February Iran-US talks, speaking in Cambridge this week reminded his audience an agreement on the core issue – Iran’s nuclear programme – had been within reach before the bombing started.
霍尔木兹海峡，这个几个世纪以来对商业航行开放的水道，已成为伊朗的筹码。
The strait of Hormuz, a waterway open to commercial traffic for centuries, has become an Iranian bargaining chip.
在这场战争的每一项考验中，其结果都是灾难性的失败，其后果不断蔓延至最初的边界之外，将全球通胀推高至 4%。霍尔木兹海峡，这一数百年来对商业航行开放的水道，已成为伊朗的筹码。在中期选举前不到两周，布伦特原油每桶价格达到 117 美元——比战前水平高出 50%。
On every test the war has been a catastrophic failure, whose consequence keeps spreading beyond its initial boundaries, pushing worldwide inflation to 4%. The strait of Hormuz, a waterway open to commercial traffic for centuries, has become an Iranian bargaining chip. Less than a fortnight before the midterms, the price of Brent oil per barrel reached $117 – 50% higher than prewar levels.
国际货币基金组织预测，中东经济强国沙特阿拉伯的国内生产总值将收缩 3.3%，较 7 月发布的 1.7% 增长预测下调了五个百分点。
The GDP of Saudi Arabia the Middle East’s economic powerhouse, is forecast by the IMF to contract 3.3%, a five percentage-point downgrade from the 1.7% growth forecast issued only in July.
正如沙特王室分析所解释的：“该国‘2030 年愿景’计划的制定是为了对冲油价波动。它假设海上航道畅通、机场正常运转，且美国安全保护伞将威慑针对王国出口基础设施的动能威胁。自 2 月以来，这些假设每一个都已落空。” 9 月 30 日，沙特政府被迫将 2026 年预算赤字预测上调至 653 亿美元，比原预测高出 48%。
As the House of Saud analysis explains: “The country’s Vision 2030 plan was constructed as a hedge against oil-price volatility. It assumed open sea lanes, functioning airports, and a US security umbrella that would deter kinetic threats to the kingdom’s export infrastructure. Every one of those assumptions has failed since February.”On 30 September, Saudi Arabia’s government felt forced to raise its 2026 budget deficit projection to $65.3bn, 48% above the original forecast.
国际货币基金组织预测，沙特阿拉伯的国内生产总值将收缩 3.3%，较 7 月发布的 1.7% 增长预测下调。
The GDP of Saudi Arabia is forecast by the IMF to contract 3.3% from the 1.7% growth forecast issued in July.
冲突并未导致伊朗更加稳定。伊朗最具战略眼光的人物阿里·拉里贾尼在战争第一天被炸身亡。新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊周围的强硬派比以往任何时候都更加根深蒂固。如果有什么变化的话，伊朗国内的公共辩论倾向于结束关于拥有核武器的教令禁令。
Photograph: AFP/Getty Nor did the conflict lead to a more stable Iran. The Iranian with most strategic nous, Ali Larijani, was blown up on the first day of the war. Hardliners around the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, are more entrenched than ever. If anything the public debate inside Iran leans towards ending the fatwa on possessing nuclear weapons.
无论核问题如何，在谈判期间遭受两次袭击后，伊斯兰革命卫队已调整其防御学说，允许不仅针对美国基地，而且在全球范围内实施先发制人的打击。“人们可以从远处伤害我们，而具备这种能力并不需要巨资，”英国国防参谋长托尼·拉达金承认道。此外，就是美国和以色列在伊朗行动上的前后矛盾和无法无天。
Regardless of the nuclear issue, after being attacked twice mid-negotiation, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has already adjusted its defence doctrine to allow for preemptive strikes not just against US bases, but across the globe. “People can hurt us from a distance, and it doesn’t cost a fortune to be able to do so,” Tony Radakin, the UK chief of the defence staff, admitted. Then there is the incoherence and lawlessness of the US-Israeli actions in Iran.
本雅明·内塔尼亚胡急于在两年内第三次攻击伊朗，曾想下令“以色列国防军、摩萨德和安全部门”“推翻伊朗政权”。美国人的重点则放在核武器上。
Benjamin Netanyahu spoiling to attack Iran for a third time in two years, wanted to order “the IDF, Mossad, and the security services” to “overthrow the regime in Iran”. The Americans focus was on nuclear weapons.
这场混乱使特朗普的国内声望跌入谷底。然而，正如哈里·S·杜鲁门的国务卿迪安·艾奇逊所断言：“外交政策工作的80%在于管理你在国内制定政策的能力。”亨利·基辛格说：“政策的试金石在于其获得国内支持的能力。”外交政策必须构建起来以赢得民众支持，而这项政策却没有。结果，特朗普感到自己陷入困境，在以前失败的解决方案上打转，这让他越来越暴躁和反复无常。
The chaos has left Trump’s domestic popularity in ruins. Yet as Dean Acheson, Harry S Truman’s secretary of state, asserted: “80% of the job of foreign policy is the management of your domestic ability to have a policy.”Henry Kissinger said: “The acid test of policy is its ability to obtain domestic support.”A foreign policy has to be constructed to win popular backing and this one was not. As a result Trump feels entrapped, circling around solutions that failed before, making him ever more irascible and random.
共和党民调专家卡尔·罗夫声称，因此，特朗普“给人的印象更像是UFC比赛中的起哄者，而不是令人安心的战时总司令。白宫在战争和经济问题上发出的信息越不克制，共和党候选人的风险就越大。”面对暴跌的民调数字，对伊朗拒绝屈服感到愤怒，又缺乏自我批评能力，特朗普孤注一掷，试图将高能源价格的责任转嫁给第二个战场——乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击。
The Republican pollster Karl Rove claimed Trump, as a result, “came across more as a heckler at a UFC match than as a reassuring wartime commander-in-chief. The more undisciplined the White House messages on war and the economy, the more at risk GOP candidates will be.”Faced by the plunging poll numbers, incensed by Iran’s refusal to submit, incapable of self-criticism, Trump took the plunge and tried to deflect responsibility for high energy prices to a second theatre of war – Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries.
特朗普再次打开了他对乌克兰的弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基的仇恨闸门——他2025年第一次打开时，却被欧洲领导人和国内压力迫使再次关上。特朗普曾把泽连斯基描述为和平的真正障碍。
Trump flung open the floodgates of his hatred for Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he first released in 2025 only for European leaders, and domestic pressure, to force them shut again. Trump has described Zelesnkyy as a real impediment to peace.
积压已久的怨气倾泻而出，他要求泽连斯基下台，称其为和平以及俄美商业合作新时代的真正障碍。但即便是在这种背信弃义中，白宫的无能也显露无遗。
The pent-up bile has poured out as he demanded Zelenskyy stand down, describing him as the real impediment to peace, and a new era of Russian US business cooperation. But even in treachery the incompetence of the White House shone through.
特朗普最初宣布了一项完全虚构的为期60天的“能源休战”，但泽连斯基和普京都没有同意。随后曝出的释放俄罗斯柴油的协议规模如此之小，以至于没有任何严肃的评论员认为它会对美国价格产生严重影响。
Trump first announced an entirely fictional 60-day “energy truce” that neither Zelensky or Putin had agreed. Then the deal to release Russian diesel emerged to be so small that no serious commentator said it would have a serious impact on the US prices.
10月22日，乌克兰救援人员走在基辅一处遭导弹袭击受损的购物中心现场。
Ukrainian rescuers walk at the site of a shopping centre damaged in a missile strike in Kyiv on 22 October.
摄影：弗拉迪斯拉夫·穆西延科/法新社/盖蒂图片社 至于乌克兰军队为何突然失去此前那种程度的、对埃隆·马斯克军用级“星链”的访问权限，美国政府就管理此类系统的规则以及实际发生的事情给出了相互矛盾的说法。
Photograph: Vladislav Musienko/AFP/Getty As to why Ukrainian forces were suddenly deprived of their previous levels of access to the military-grade version of Elon Musk’s Starlink, the US administration gave conflicting accounts over the rules that govern such systems, and what actually happened.
即使在该决定据称被撤销之后，一些人将责任归咎于自行其是的马斯克——该系统的亿万富翁所有者，暗示一家私营公司可以决定一个名义上美国盟友的行为。其他人，包括副总统J·D·万斯，表示根据合同，马斯克采取行动需要得到白宫或军方的许可。马斯克称，乌克兰人利用“星链”攻击伊朗，违反了“星链”合同条款。
Even after the decision was supposedly reversed, some blamed a freelancing Musk, the billionaire owner of the system, implying a private company could determine the conduct of a putative US ally. Others, including the vice-president, JD Vance, said contractually Musk would have required the permission of the White House or the military to act. Musk said the Ukrainians had breached the terms of the Starlink contract by using it to attack Iran.
乌克兰作家伊利亚·波诺马连科写道：“当然，人类历史上也有过更黑暗、更可怕的时期。但似乎从未有过如此卑鄙、尤其是如此愚蠢的时期。”特朗普的干预以及他将这两场战争交织在一起的做法，给了俄罗斯人可乘之机——他们提议在11月18日于中国深圳举行的既定会议上召开一场中、俄、美三方大国峰会。
The Ukrainian author Illia Ponomarenko wrote: “There have, of course, been times in human history that were even darker and more terrible. But never, it seems, have there been times so despicable and, above all, so stupid.”Trump’s intervention and his intertwining of these two wars has given the Russians the chance to pounce by proposing a three-way China, Russia and US great power summit at an already scheduled meeting in Shenzhen, China, on 18 November.
为了让这一提议对特朗普更具吸引力，普京于10月19日派其资深外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫前往德黑兰，这是伊朗战争爆发以来的首次，以了解他能否在特朗普能够容忍的条件下结束这场冲突。
To make this more appealing to Trump, Putin sent his veteran foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, on 19 October to Tehran for the first time since the Iran war broke out to see if he could bring the conflict to an end on terms Trump could tolerate.
“普京越能说服德黑兰向特朗普的要求靠拢，他就能从特朗普那里在乌克兰问题上榨取越多的让步，”俄罗斯事务分析师阿米尔·查哈基说。俄罗斯的雄心是利用特朗普的困境，将两场战争——乌克兰和伊朗——一并结束，且主要按俄罗斯的条件。
“The more Putin can persuade Tehran to move closer to Trump’s demands, the more concessions he can extract from Trump on Ukraine,” the Russia affairs analyst Amir Chahaki said. The Russian ambition is to use Trump’s difficulties to end the two wars – Ukraine and Iran – together, largely on Russian terms.
特朗普正在采取措施帮助普京，包括摆脱他国际贱民的身份，无视自己党内一些人的反对，邀请普京出席今年冬天的二十国集团峰会，该峰会由美国在迈阿密郊外的一家特朗普高尔夫球场主办。特朗普为何如此确信普京怀有善意，这是一个无人能解开的谜团。
Trump is taking steps to help Putin, including by shedding his status as an international pariah, overruling the objections of some in his own party by inviting Putin to this winter’s G20 summit, which the US is hosting at a Trump golf club just outside Miami. Quite why Trump feels so certain of Putin’s good intentions is a mystery that no one can unravel.
特朗普为何如此确信普京怀有善意，这是一个谜团，一个无人能解开的谜团。乔治·W·布什的前演讲稿撰写人大卫·弗拉姆认为，这是特朗普衰退的产物。他说：“十年前他进入政坛时，是一个更有自我意识的骗子，而今非昔比。他现在可能有点迷失：真正处在一个幻觉世界里，他自己不再知道什么是真、什么是假。” 醒悟特朗普 但这一切都有后果。越来越多的国家终于意识到被美国排斥和欺凌的危险。加拿大前外交部长克里斯蒂娅·弗里兰承认，这花了很长时间。
Quite why Trump feels so certain of Putin’s good intentions is a mystery, one that no one can unravel. David Frum, a former speech writer for George W Bush, posits it is a function of Trump’s decline. Trump was “much more of a self-aware conman when he entered politics a decade ago than he is now. He now may be kind of lost: truly in a world of illusions, where he no longer himself knows what is true and what is a lie.”Waking up to Trump But there is a consequence to all this. More and more countries are finally waking up to dangers of being excluded and abused by the US. The former Canadian foreign minister Chrystia Freeland admits it has taken a long time.
“有些领导人以为特朗普很蠢，于是决定：‘我能搞定这家伙。我能给他最闪亮的奖品。我能给他一块镶钻金表。我能用最离谱的方式奉承他。’” 例如，沙特阿拉伯向特朗普提供礼物，作为回报，他们被独自留下抵御胡塞武装的袭击，资深联合国外交官坚称，这些袭击完全是由符合伊朗需求的时间表驱动的。
“There are leaders, thinking Trump is stupid, that decided: ‘I can win this guy over. I can give him the shiniest prize. I can give him a gold watch that’s encrusted with diamonds. I can flatter him in the most outrageous way.’”For instance, Saudi Arabia offered gifts to Trump, and in return they have been left alone to fend off the attacks by Houthis that senior UN diplomats insist is entirely driven by a timetable that meets Iran’s needs.
特别是，特朗普试图将他在伊朗的灾难甩锅给一个基本无辜的乌克兰，这在欧洲内部产生了致命影响。欧洲大陆的领导人对他们与特朗普在俄罗斯问题上的巨大分歧感到震惊。
In particular, Trump’s effort to deflect his Iranian disaster on to a largely innocent Ukraine has had a lethal effect inside Europe. The continent’s leaders are aghast at the gap between themselves and Trump on Russia.
欧洲视俄罗斯为生存威胁，特朗普却将其视为商业机会。更糟糕的是，他亲俄的言论助长了民粹主义关于乌克兰战争耗资巨大导致生活难以为继的叙事，从而威胁到中间派自身的政治生存。
Where Europe sees an existential threat, Trump sees a business opportunity. What is worse is that his pro-Russia rhetoric threatens the centre’s own political survival by feeding the populist narrative about the draining cost of Ukraine making lives unaffordable.
关于“与俄罗斯实现和平”的宣传洪流，导致德国总理弗里德里希·默茨感叹道：“我目前最大的担忧不是我们的经济，不是美国或中国，而是俄罗斯对我们社会的影响。” 出于自我保护，欧洲领导人别无选择，只能明确阐述他们与特朗普的分歧。结果，他们不得不明确指责伊朗战争导致生活水平受到挤压，并要求抗议者批评的不是他们，而是华盛顿。
The torrent of propaganda about “peace with Russia” led the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, to exclaim: “My biggest concern at the moment is not our economy, not the USA or China, but Russia’s influence on our society.”As a matter of self-protection, European leaders have no choice but to articulate their differences with Trump. As a result, they have had to become explicit in blaming the Iran war for the squeeze on living standards and to ask the rioters to criticise not them but Washington.
抗议者在反对生活成本上涨和燃油价格飙升的示威冲突中手持法国国旗。
Protesters hold a French flag amid clashes during demonstrations against the cost of living and rising fuel prices.
例如，法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙告诉抗议者，他们对生活成本的愤怒是合理的：“示威者表达了对生活成本和燃油价格的担忧。这两者都是由波斯湾爆发的冲突驱动的，法国未参与这场冲突，却正承受其后果。” 波兰总理唐纳德·图斯克在议会中承认，普通民众的燃油价格“贵得要命”，但他补充说，为此负责的唐纳德不是他，而是波兰反对派眼中的英雄特朗普。
For instance, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, told the rioters that their anger about the cost of living was legitimate: “Demonstrators expressed concern about the cost of living and the price of fuel. Both are driven by the conflict launched in the Persian Gulf, a conflict in which France has taken no part but whose consequences we are suffering.”The Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, in his parliament admitted fuel prices for ordinary people were “devilishly expensive”, but added that the Donald responsible for this was not him but Trump, the hero of the Polish opposition.
第二个连锁影响是，马斯克对SpaceX的干预让欧洲更加清楚地认识到，必须结束关于数字主权的辩论，转而通过监管来减少未来对美国技术的依赖。
The second knock-on impact is that Musk’s meddling with SpaceX has made it even more apparent to Europe that it has to end its debate on digital sovereignty and instead regulate to reduce its future dependence on US technology.
弗里兰预测：“各国在购买另一架由五角大楼控制的F-35之前，会认真三思。为什么要想要一架由美国人控制的战机？” 欧盟委员会于5月提议，将允许智能手机直接连接卫星的2GHz频谱的70%保留给欧洲企业，从而限制星链等参与者的准入。德国电信、Orange、沃达丰和Telefónica已准备竞标，引发美国外交抗议。
Freeland predicts: “Countries are going to think really hard before they buy another F-35 controlled by the Pentagon. Why would you want a jet that Americans control?”The European Commission in May proposed reserving 70% of the 2GHz frequency spectrum, which allows smartphones to connect directly to satellites, for European enterprises, thus restricting access for players such as Starlink. Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Vodafone and Telefónica are already lining up to make the bid, prompting US diplomatic protests.
波兰外长拉多斯瓦夫·西科尔斯基指责马斯克在欧洲自掘坟墓，质问为何“一个吸食氯胺酮的万亿富翁，与外国势力勾结，却自以为理应享有监管特权和频率许可”。
The Polish foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, accused Musk of digging his own grave in Europe, asking why “a Ketamine-addicted trillionaire in bed with foreign powers should think he deserves regulatory privileges and frequency permissions”.
同样，一些中东强国正开始意识到，一个始终将以色列优先事项置于首位的美国体系，对其主权构成了威胁。
Similarly, some Middle Eastern powers are waking up to the threat to their sovereignty posed by a US system that consistently privileges Israel’s priorities.
时机尚早，但阿曼外长巴德尔·阿尔布赛迪本周呼吁建立一个包含伊朗的海湾安全协议，这对一位海湾国家领导人而言，可能是一个“柏林墙时刻”。其含义是，美国不应再担任海湾的安全提供者。
It is early days, but for a Gulf state leader to call for a Gulf security pact that includes Iran, as Badr Albusaidi, Oman’s foreign minister, did this week, is a potential Berlin Wall moment. The implication is that the US should no longer be the security provider for the Gulf.
伊朗在整个海湾地区备受猜忌，阿尔布赛迪承认他的提议违背直觉。但正如其团队所言：“战争有时只是发生；和平总是被促成的。”
Iran is viewed with deep suspicion across the Gulf, and Albusaidi admits his proposal is counterintuitive. But, as his team says, “war sometimes just happens; peace is always caused”.
无论哪种方式，在人们对战后机构的解决问题能力失去信任之际，那些相信集体行动和外交功效的人，至关重要的是要表明他们是认真的。
Either way, at a time when people have lost faith in the problem-solving capacity of postwar institutions, it’s critical that those who believe in the efficacy of collective action and diplomacy show they mean it.
在三年的浩劫与战争之后，他们终于需要从破坏者手中夺回控制权。
After three years of havoc and war, they finally need to take back control from the demolition men.