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特朗普陷入困境,恐再次向伊朗发难——如何避免这场灾难 | 西蒙·蒂斯代尔Trump is in a corner and likely to lash out at Iran again. Here’s how to avert that disaster | Simon Tisdall

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2026年10月26日,唐纳德·特朗普在密西西比州科林斯市十字路口竞技场举行的竞选集会上。摄影:奇普·索莫德维利亚/盖蒂图片社Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Crossroads Arena, Corinth, Mississippi, 26 October 2026. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

一旦中期选举结束,特朗普将有自由去追求报复性政治。但只要有意愿和外交手段,他就能被遏制住。

Once the midterms are over, Trump will be free to pursue vendetta politics. But with will and diplomacy, he can be reined in As another Iran catastrophe looms, one question matters more than any other: how to stop it before it’s too late? Whatever the eventual outcome of Israel’s election and next week’s US midterm polls, Donald Trump, playing the Lone Ranger, and Benjamin Netanyahu, his badass Tonto, appear hell-bent on resuming the illegal war of choice they began in June last year and expanded in February. Like a Shakespearean tragedy moving inexorably to a bloody denouement, the worst is yet to come. And yet three things seem certain: the US and Israel will again fail to totally destroy Iran’s largely hypothetical nuclear capabilities; its regime will survive; and millions of ordinary people, there and around the world, will pay the price for this unjustified, reckless aggression.

随着另一场伊朗灾难逼近,有一个问题比任何其他问题都更重要:如何在为时已晚之前阻止它?无论以色列大选和下周美国中期选举的最终结果如何,扮演“独行侠”的唐纳德·特朗普,以及他的“硬汉坦托”本雅明·内塔尼亚胡,似乎都铁了心要重启他们去年六月发动、并于今年二月扩大的这场非法的选择性战争。像一部莎士比亚悲剧不可避免地走向血腥的结局,最坏的情况尚未到来。

然而有三点似乎可以确定:美国和伊朗将再次无法彻底摧毁伊朗主要属于假设性的核能力;其政权将存续下来;而那里以及世界各地的数百万普通民众,将为这场毫无正当理由、鲁莽的侵略付出代价。

Ducking and weaving, Trump is desperate to dodge the blame for the Republicans’ anticipated midterm meltdown, largely triggered by war-related fuel and consumer price inflation. He claimed Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries were responsible, but that didn’t wash. He cut a treacherous diesel deal with Vladimir Putin but, as usual, Russia’s smirking mafioso conned him. He urged US allies to tap their strategic reserves but, unsurprisingly, vilified and sidelined European leaders, who view his war as an unmitigated disaster and declined to bail him out. Trump also reportedly rebuffed last-gasp, electorally driven pressure from Netanyahu to hit Iran this month, fearful it would unleash a Democratic tsunami.

特朗普左躲右闪,拼命想甩掉共和党预期中期选举惨败的责任,这主要是由战争相关的燃料和消费品价格通胀引发的。他声称乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼油厂应负责任,但这站不住脚。他与弗拉基米尔·普京达成了一项卑鄙的柴油交易,但照例是俄罗斯这个窃笑的黑帮头子骗了他。他敦促美国盟友动用战略储备,但毫不意外地诋毁并边缘化欧洲领导人,后者视他的战争为彻头彻尾的灾难,拒绝伸出援手。

据报道,特朗普还拒绝了内塔尼亚胡出于选举考量、在最后关头施加的打击伊朗的压力,因为他担心这会引发一场民主党的海啸。西蒙·蒂斯代尔是《卫报》外交事务评论员

Simon Tisdall is a Guardian foreign affairs commentator

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