Poll after poll shows the Democrats comfortably retaking the House come Nov. 3, with a number also giving them a slightly better than even chance of taking the Senate. Maybe. But I’ve been around this business a long time, and something feels a bit less “bluey” by the day. To be sure, the Republican brand is in a world of hurt right now, with tens of millions of voters not willing to let the party wiggle off the hook of accountability, since Republicans control the White House, the Senate and the House.

Blaming the Biden administration may work with much of the MAGA base, but it frays into incredulity for the rest of the voting blocs when they stop to realize that the Trump administration has been in power for coming up on two years. Not surprisingly to anyone paying the remotest bit of attention over the last decade, in one way or another, all partisan roads seem to lead back to President Trump. Somewhat ironically for this election cycle, should the Republicans lose across the board, it was Trump himself who blazed one of those rhetorically poisonous roads back to him and his party by repeatedly telling Americans, “Vote as if I am on the ballot.”Watch what you wish for.

To be sure, millions of Americans in and out of the MAGA base still strongly believe in the president, his brand and his policies. Many believe he saved our nation. But viewing the flip side of that coin, some could certainly make the case that a large percentage of the votes Joe Biden got in 2020 and Kamala Harris got in 2024 were not votes for those two Democratic presidential nominees so much as votes against Trump. If one buys into that theory, then it’s also reasonable to believe that the “I only voted because I want Trump gone” demographic is still out there — and may have grown in the last few years.

Such voters are eager to accept Trump’s challenge. Many Republicans I speak with believe that their party is bleeding votes, from independents, youths. minorities, even faith-based votes.

And the main reason for the vote bleed is absolutely no mystery. The administration can sing the praises of a rising stock market and growing 401(k)s until they are blue in the face. These positives mean little or nothing to voters whose paychecks are shrinking by the month as they cope with higher gasoline and grocery prices, home ownership increasingly out of reach, and a widening disappointment regarding the war with Iran. The pendulum that determines national elections regularly is pushed to that cycle’s winning side by just slivers of the vote in certain districts, counties and states.

At the moment, that pendulum is swinging back to the left, even despite a veritable laundry list of accomplishments authored by this president and his administration over the course of the last two years: historically lower crime rates; a closed and protected border; increased energy dominance; and the creation of almost 70 million Trump Accounts for kids. Even so, many Trump supporters and Republicans still refuse to believe that a blue wave is about to swamp their president and party. They honestly wonder how they could be losing to nothing but sheer hatred of Donald Trump.

While the Democratic leadership understandably pounces on the “affordability” issue at every opportunity, their own answers to that “crisis” are either paper-thin or nonexistent. And yet, the polls continue to favor them. Is that enough for the Democrats to have a great day on Nov. 3, even with no real solutions to the issues plaguing this nation? We’ll just have to wait and see. Douglas MacKinnon is a former White House and Pentagon official.