数据中心持有的债务规模以数百亿英镑计。文/莉莉·贾马利 曾经默默无闻的AI生态系统一隅如今置身聚光灯下——而投资者们看到的并不全是好事。
The amount of debt held by data centres is measured in the tens of billions of pounds. By Lily Jamali A once-obscure corner of the AI ecosystem finds itself in the spotlight – and investors don't all like what they see.
CoreWeave和Nebius等名字，对于旧金山和硅谷的科技圈人士来说并不陌生。
Names like CoreWeave and Nebius are familiar to the tech set in San Francisco and Silicon Valley.
这些被称为“新云”企业的数据中心公司，运营着装满昂贵计算机的大型仓库，并将其租赁给Anthropic、OpenAI和Meta等主要AI开发商。它们如今已成为硅谷最激烈辩论的主题之一。
These data centre companies, known as neocloud firms, run large warehouses packed with expensive computers, which they lease to major AI developers like Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta. They're now the subject of one of Silicon Valley's most heated debates.
许多人质疑新云企业是否财务稳健，以及它们近期的跌跌撞撞透露出AI经济怎样的状态。
Many question whether neocloud firms are financially sound and what their recent stumbles tell us about the state of the AI economy.
市场研究机构Gartner的分析师预测，到2030年，80%的新云企业将“终止独立运营”；Forrester的专家则预计，随着财务状况动摇，至少有三家新云企业将在不久的将来被收购。
Analysts at Gartner predict by 2030, 80% of neocloud firms will "cease independent operations", while Forrester's experts expect at least three of them to be imminently acquired "as finances get shaky".
周四，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在CNBC上试图淡化外界对新云企业的近期担忧，称其只是“整个生态系统中的一小部分”。
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to downplay recent concerns about neocloud firms, calling them "a small component of the overall ecosystem" on CNBC.
债务担忧 新云企业通常通过与需要快速获取算力的大型科技客户签订长期租赁合同来融资。
Debt worries Neocloud firms often finance themselves byg long-term lease contracts with major tech customers who need quick access to computing power.
“The Quiet Period”IPO研究机构的分析师科里·约翰逊解释说，企业随后可以利用这些合同——加上它们购买的AI芯片——作为抵押借款。他表示，债务在新云企业中很常见，因为硬件必须预先付款。
Firms can then borrow money using those contracts – plus the AI chips they purchase – as collateral, explained analyst Cory Johnson of "The Quiet Period" IPO research outfit. He said debt is common across neocloud firms because the hardware has to be paid for up front.
以行业龙头CoreWeave为例。它的规模仅为其服务的某些大型科技公司的一小部分。
Take the industry leader: CoreWeave. It's a fraction of the size of some of the Big Tech companies it serves.
但约翰逊认为，放款时，贷款人有时更看重CoreWeave客户（如微软或Meta）的信用资质，而非该公司自身的资质。
But Johnson believes lenders sometimes consider the creditworthiness of CoreWeave's customers, like Microsoft or Meta, more than the company's when they lend.
“这有助于解释CoreWeave为何累积了351亿美元（263亿英镑）的债务，”他说。一些忐忑不安的投资者似乎正在重新考虑。CoreWeave股价在过去一个月蒸发四分之一，并非孤例。
"This helps explain how CoreWeave accumulated $35.1bn (£26.3bn) in debt," he said. Some jittery investors appear to be having second thoughts. CoreWeave stock has lost a quarter of its value over the past month, and it's not alone.
同期内，Nebius、IREN和Applied Digital等其他“新云”企业的股价也都下跌了大致相同幅度，甚至更多。
Shares in other neocloud firms like Nebius, IREN, and Applied Digital have all shed about that much if not more during the same period.
债券投资者似乎也受到惊吓，正要求该领域多家公司提供更高的回报率。
Debt investors also appear spooked, and are demanding ever-higher returns from several firms in the sector.
CoreWeave首席执行官Mike Intrator表示，市场表现“非理性”，并对公司商业模式表示信心。全球一些最具影响力的公司正排队等候CoreWeave的基础设施和其他AI服务。
CoreWeave's CEO Mike Intrator has said that the market is acting "irrationally" and has expressed confidence in its business model. Some of the world's most consequential companies are queuing up for CoreWeave's infrastructure and other AI services.
加密货币起家多家“新云”企业源于波动剧烈的加密货币挖矿行业，该行业由生产比特币等加密货币的公司组成。
Origins in crypto Several neocloud firms have their roots in the volatile crypto mining industry, made of companies that generate cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin.
加密货币矿工使用的部分物理基础设施，与开发AI所用的基础设施相同。CoreWeave成立于2017年，最初专注于以太坊挖矿。
Crypto miners use some of the same kind of physical infrastructure that is used to develop AI. CoreWeave was founded in 2017 with a focus on mining Ethereum.
IREN、Core Scientific和Applied Digital同样起步于加密货币挖矿。
IREN, Core Scientific and Applied Digital also started in crypto mining.
这些基础设施使它们在2022年OpenAI推出ChatGPT引发AI爆发时处于有利位置。
Their infrastructure left them well-positioned when AI exploded in 2022 with the introduction of OpenAI's ChatGPT.
Nebius是个例外，该公司在从俄罗斯版Google——Yandex NV分拆并于2024年更名前，曾名为Yandex NV。
One outlier is Nebius, which was known as Yandex NV when it was part of Russia's version of Google before splitting off and changing its name in 2024.
如今，这些公司的成败取决于主要AI开发商和超大规模运营商的命运——后者是规模更大的数据中心运营商，往往是“新云”企业的关键客户。
Now, the success of these firms hinges on the fate of major AI developers and hyperscalers – even larger data centre operators which neocloud firms often count as key customers.
S&P Global旗下Visible Alpha Research负责人Melissa Otto表示：“系统内注入了巨额支出。这是一场军备竞赛。”而“新云”企业从中受益。
"There is just an enormous amount of spending getting injected into the system," said Melissa Otto, head of Visible Alpha Research at S&P Global. "It's an arms race." And neoclouds have benefitted.
Forrester副总裁兼首席分析师Charlie Dai表示，其模式的代价是在变化面前面临“更大的财务风险”。这包括其大科技客户可能对支出计划做出的任何调整。
But the trade-off of their model is "greater financial risk" in the face of change, said Forrester VP and principal analyst Charlie Dai. That includes any adjustments that their Big Tech customers might make to their spending plans.
上周，微软和谷歌预测的人工智能支出低于华尔街分析师的预期，导致多家新云计算公司的股价暴跌。
This past week, when Microsoft and Google forecast less AI spending than Wall Street analysts had projected, shares in several neocloud firms tumbled.
安谋科技和OpenAI也备受关注，预计两家公司将在未来几个月开始向公众出售股份。
Much is also riding on Anthropic and OpenAI, which are both expected to start selling shares to the public in the months ahead.
Tusk Ventures的布拉德利·塔斯克表示：“如果人工智能被证明是一个泡沫——并破裂了——新云计算公司‘肯定会面临附带损害’。”“小鱼级死亡”新云计算公司的未来还取决于其持续借贷的能力，而随着利率上升，借贷成本变得更高。
If AI proves to be a bubble – and bursts – neocloud firms "are definitely going to face collateral damage," said Bradley Tusk of Tusk Ventures. 'Guppy-level death' The future of the neoclouds also depend on their ability to keep borrowing, which gets more expensive as interest rates rise.
埃隆·马斯克近日在社交媒体发文指出，这一挑战可能导致200多家新云计算公司“面临小鱼级死亡和整合”，规模最小的公司最脆弱。他补充道：“有些公司能挺过去，但不会有很多。”
In a recent social media post, Elon Musk suggested this challenge could lead more than 200 neoclouds to "see guppy-level death and consolidation", with the smallest firms being the most vulnerable. "Some will make it through, but not many," he added.
目前，Yorkville Ives的分析师表示，算力需求仍超过供应，并指出新云计算公司正在填补大型数据中心公司无法填补的重要空白。但对一些人来说，新云计算行业近期的动荡令人担忧。
For now, analysts at Yorkville Ives said demand for computing power still exceeds supply, adding that neoclouds are filling an important gap that larger data centre companies cannot fill. But to some, the neocloud sector's recent wobbles are concerning.
微软最近因电力供应问题取消了与一家名为Nscale的英国新云计算公司的交易，该问题可能持续到2030年。澳大利亚的Firmus刚刚搁置了向公众出售股份的计划。
Microsoft recently cancelled a deal with a British neocloud outfit called Nscale amid power supply issues which could last through to 2030. Australia's Firmus just shelved plans to start selling shares to the public.
这些事态发展发生在公众对数据中心的反弹以及关于人工智能能为劳动生产率增加多少价值的质疑之中。约翰逊表示：“有理由担忧。”
These developments come amid a public backlash against data centres and questions about how much value AI can add to worker productivity. "There's reason to worry," said Johnson.
