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特朗普白宫规划若民主党获胜绕过国会执政的路径Trump White House maps path to govern without Congress if Democrats win

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华盛顿——根据一名白宫官员和两名熟悉该计划的人士透露,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的白宫已经花了数月时间,为国会可能被民主党接管做准备,制定了通过行政权力继续推进其重大议程的计划,同时也在为对其政府的调查做准备。

WASHINGTON, Nov 1 - President Donald Trump's White House has spent months preparing for a possible Democratic takeover of Congress, developing plans to keep advancing major parts of his agenda through executive power while bracing for investigations of his administration, according to a White House official and two people familiar with the plans.

这三位不愿透露姓名的知情人士称,包括副幕僚长斯蒂芬·米勒和预算局长拉塞尔·沃特在内的高级官员自4月以来一直与白宫法律顾问办公室合作,以确定特朗普在无需国会批准的情况下即可推行的关于移民、关税、住房成本和联邦开支的行政行动。

Senior officials, including deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller and budget director Russell Vought, have been working with the White House Counsel's Office since April to identify executive actions on immigration, tariffs, housing costs and federal spending that Trump could pursue without congressional approval, said the three people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

白宫法律顾问威尔·夏夫及其团队也在研究“特朗普可以合法地靠自己做些什么、他可以在哪里突破其权力的极限,以及如何在法庭上为这些决定辩护”,这位白宫官员表示。

White House counsel Will Scharf and his team also are looking at "what Trump can legally do on his own, where he could push the limits of his authority and how to defend those decisions in court," the White House official said.

这项规划凸显了周二中期选举的一个悖论:夺取对国会的控制权将赋予民主党调查特朗普、阻止立法以及限制其开支重点的权力。但特朗普仍将对他在第二任期内已经大举动用的贸易、外交政策和联邦官僚机构保持广泛的行政权力。

The planning underscores a paradox of Tuesday's midterm elections: Capturing control of Congress would give Democrats the power to investigate Trump, block legislation and constrain his spending priorities. But Trump would retain broad executive authority over trade, foreign policy and the federal bureaucracy that he has already used aggressively during his second term.

民主党需要在美国众议院和参议院分别净增四个席位,才能推翻共和党218比214和53比47的微弱多数优势。民意调查对民主党赢得众议院持乐观态度,而参议院的选情依然难分胜负。

Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the US House of Representatives as well as the US Senate to overturn Republicans' narrow 218-214 and 53-47 majorities. Opinion polls favor Democrats to win the House, while the Senate remains too close to call.

在过去的一个月里,特朗普一直在全国各地举行集会,试图保持共和党对国会的控制,尽管他的助手们私下里正在为2027年截然不同的政治格局做准备。

For the past month, Trump has held rallies across the country trying to preserve Republican control of Congress, even as his aides privately prepare for a very different political landscape in 2027.

白宫对共和党失利的可能前景进行了回击,并指责媒体在兜售虚假叙事。

The White House pushed back on the prospect of Republican losses and accused the media of promoting a false narrative.

“本届政府和讲常识的共和党人将继续保卫边境安全,恢复法律与秩序,让辛勤工作的美国人腰包更鼓,并为美国人民带来胜利,”白宫发言人劳伦·比斯表示。

"This administration and commonsense Republicans will continue to secure our borders, restore law and order, putting more money back into the pockets of hard-working Americans, and deliver wins for the American people," White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis said.

据白宫官员透露,正在考虑的行政行动包括:对关键矿产和风力涡轮机进口征收新关税,收紧国际学生和临时外籍工人签证规则,以及旨在降低住房和建筑成本的措施。

Among the executive actions under consideration are new tariffs on imports of critical minerals and wind turbines, tighter rules on visas for international students and temporary foreign workers, and measures aimed at lowering housing and construction costs, the White House official said.

知情人士之一表示,联邦机构已提交了政府可单方面采取行动的提案和法律审查。

Federal agencies have submitted proposals and legal reviews of actions the administration could take unilaterally, one of the people with knowledge of the plans said.

知情人士之二称,沃特负责监管联邦开支的美国管理和预算办正在研究,哪些优先事项可利用国会已拨款的资金推进。

Vought, whose US Office of Management and Budget oversees federal spending, is examining which priorities can move forward using money already appropriated by Congress, two of the people said.

他们还表示,他还想修改联邦拨款规则,让政治任命官员在决定哪些政府项目获得纳税人资金方面拥有更大话语权,这可能让白宫在无需寻求国会批准的情况下,对联邦开支拥有更大影响力。

He also wants to change federal grant rules to give political appointees more say in which government programs receive taxpayer money, they said, potentially giving the White House more influence over federal spending without seeking congressional approval.

白宫官员称,特朗普已听取相关筹备情况汇报,并参与了相关讨论。

Trump has been briefed on the preparations and has taken part in discussions about them, the White House official said.

当被问及特朗普在民主党控制国会的情况下通过行政权力治理会有多自在时,知情人士之一表示,“非常自在。”

When asked how comfortable Trump would be governing through executive authority under a Democratic Congress, one of the people said, "very comfortable."

无需国会治理自2025年1月重返白宫以来,特朗普已多次试探总统权力的边界,动用行政权力实施全面关税、强化移民执法、精简联邦劳动力,并在未经国会批准或制定新法律的情况下推进包括对伊朗战争在内的外交政策目标。

GOVERNING WITHOUT CONGRESS Trump has already tested the reach of presidential power since returning to office in January 2025, using executive authority to impose sweeping tariffs, intensify immigration enforcement, shrink the federal workforce, and pursue foreign-policy goals including the war against Iran without Congress' approval or new laws.

一大例外是特朗普的大规模减税和削减开支方案,该方案由共和党控制的国会通过,并于2025年7月由总统签署成为法律。

A major exception was Trump's massive package of tax and spending cuts that was passed by the Republican-controlled Congress and signed into law by the president in July 2025.

“在过去两年里,特朗普总统基本上忽略了国会,并试图通过行政命令和行政权力尽可能多地做事,”提供无党派政治分析的《内部选举》杂志编辑内森·冈萨雷斯说。“我认为,如果出现民主党多数派,他只会继续这样做。”特朗普曾多次援引国家紧急状态,以扩大他在无需新立法的情况下采取行动的能力。国会可以投票结束这些紧急状态,但特朗普可以否决此类举措,这需要两院三分之多数才能推翻他的否决。一个由民主党控制的国会仍然可以制造重大障碍。

"President Trump in the last two years has basically ignored Congress and tried to do as much as possible through executive orders and executive power," said Nathan Gonzales, editor at Inside Elections, which provides nonpartisan political analysis. "I think he will only continue if there are Democratic majorities." Trump has repeatedly invoked national emergencies to expand his ability to act without new legislation. Congress can vote to end those emergencies, but Trump could veto such a move, requiring two-thirds majorities in both chambers to override him. A Democratic Congress could still create significant obstacles.

对参议院的控制将允许民主党人阻止特朗普对司法和行政部门的人事提名,包括任何最高法院的人选。

Control of the Senate would allow Democrats to block Trump's judicial and executive-branch nominees, including any Supreme Court pick.

“我预计他们会非常不愿意批准总统的任何任命,”田纳西大学诺克斯维尔分校公共政策教授、中期选举历史一书的作者安德鲁·布施说。

"I would anticipate they will be very reluctant to approve any of the president's appointments," said Andrew Busch, a public policy professor at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and author of a history of midterm elections.

民主党人还可以拒绝通过特朗普支持的立法。但特朗普可以否决他不喜欢的主流民主党立法,而民主党人在众议院不太可能有足够的票数来推翻他的否决。

Democrats could also refuse to pass Trump-backed legislation. But Trump could veto Democratic legislation he doesn't like, and Democrats are unlikely to have enough votes in the House to override him.

法院可能会阻止超出特朗普法律权限的行政行动。知情人士之一表示,白宫计划寻求司法部的法律意见,以确定特朗普在没有国会的情况下能做什么,以及如果在法庭上受到挑战,该如何为这些行动进行辩护。

Courts could block executive actions that exceed Trump's legal authority. The White House plans to seek legal opinions from the Justice Department to determine what Trump can do without Congress and how to defend those actions if they are challenged in court, one of the people said.

民主党人的调查 然而,有一个挑战是无法通过行政行动来规避的:国会调查。此前报道称,路透社此前曾报道,资深众议院民主党人和委员会助手已经讨论过使用听证会、传票和文件索取来审查特朗普是否利用其总统权力来使自己、盟友或捐赠者受益。

DEMOCRATIC INVESTIGATIONS One challenge, however, cannot be sidestepped through executive action: congressional investigations. Reuters previously reported that senior House Democrats and committee aides have discussed using hearings, subpoenas and document requests to examine whether Trump has used his presidential power to benefit himself, allies or donors.

所有三位知情人士都表示,特朗普的助手们几个月来一直在为这种前景做准备。

Trump aides have been preparing for that prospect for months, all three people said.

白宫律师一直在向政治任命官员和机构负责人简报如何应对国会调查、文件要求和传票,一名知情人士透露。他们建议官员在书面记录方面要格外小心。

White House lawyers have been briefing political appointees and agency leaders on how to handle congressional inquiries, document requests and subpoenas, one person said. They have advised officials to be careful about what they put in writing.

该知情人士还表示,他们还寻求司法部的法律意见,这可能允许特朗普援引行政特权,以保护其与私人顾问的通信免受国会审查。

They also sought a Justice Department opinion that could allow Trump to invoke executive privilege to shield communications with private advisers from congressional scrutiny, the person said.

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