德国即将未能达成其天然气储气设施注气的官方目标，这将使其在应对冬季需求激增时缺乏足够的缓冲。
Germany is set to miss its official target for filling natural gas storage sites, leaving it with a reduced buffer against surging winter demand.
随着寒潮来袭，根据欧洲天然气基础设施组织的数据，截至周五，德国天然气储备仅注满 61.17%。这远低于 11 月 1 日约 70% 的目标，尽管当局在过去一个月通过国有能源公司 SEFE 加大燃料采购力度。
With a cold snap setting in, German gas reserves were only 61.17% full as of Friday, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe show. That’s well short of a Nov. 1 goal of about 70%, despite authorities’ efforts to ramp up fuel purchases via state-owned energy company SEFE over the past month.
虽然 11 月 1 日的数据预计要在周末过后才会公布，但德国经济部周五表示，将无法达到该目标。
While data for Nov. 1 is not expected until after the weekend, Germany’s economy ministry said Friday it won’t reach its target.
这一缺口出现之际，预报未来几天较冷天气将席卷德国及欧洲大部分地区，可能推高取暖用气需求。据 Vaisala 气象学家 Matthew Dross 称，柏林、法兰克福和慕尼黑的平均气温预计将比常年同期低 2 至 4 摄氏度。德国气象局称，德国南部和东部气温可能降至冰点以下。
The shortfall comes as colder weather is forecast to sweep across Germany and much of Europe in the coming days, potentially boosting demand for gas for heating. Average temperatures in Berlin, Frankfurt and Munich are expected to slide 2C to 4C below normal, according to Vaisala meteorologist Matthew Dross. In southern and eastern Germany, temperatures could dip below freezing, government forecaster DWD said.
随着伊朗战争扰乱全球能源贸易，欧洲天然气价格今年已上涨两倍（即涨至三倍）；而冲突持续时间的不确定性阻碍了储气努力。德国作为欧洲最大经济体，拥有能源密集型制造业，对冬季需求的长时间激增准备尤为不足，其天然气缓冲量落后于欧盟 75% 的平均水平。
European gas prices have already tripled this year as the Iran war disrupts global energy trade, while uncertainty over how long the conflict will last has hampered stockpiling efforts. Germany — Europe’s largest economy and home to an energy-intensive manufacturing sector — is particularly ill-prepared for prolonged spikes in winter demand, with gas buffers trailing the European Union average of 75%.
预报还显示，一种高压天气模式将带来平静多云的日子，并伴随极小风速时段，这种被称为 “Dunkelflaute”（风光互补低谷期）的状况会抑制风能和太阳能发电。
A high-pressure weather pattern is also forecast to bring calm and cloudy days with periods of very little wind, conditions known as Dunkelflaute that can curb wind and solar generation.
这一局面让人联想到四年前的能源危机，当时乌克兰战争切断了来自俄罗斯的管道天然气供应，对德国打击尤为严重。在经历了数十年对俄罗斯天然气的依赖后，德国此后在加强能源安全方面取得了进展。即便如此，欧盟成员国意大利仍批评柏林今年在补充库存方面做得不够。
The situation has echoes of the energy crisis four years ago, when the war in Ukraine choked off pipeline gas supplies from Russia, hitting Germany particularly hard. After decades of reliance on Russian gas, Germany has since made strides in bolstering its energy security. Even so, fellow European Union member, Italy, has criticized Berlin for not doing enough to replenish inventories this year.
与此同时，由于担心伊朗战争可能进一步扰乱全球天然气供应，欧洲天然气期货价格上周飙升至每兆瓦时100欧元以上，为2022年以来首次。虽然价格仍远低于上一轮能源危机期间创下的纪录高位，但如果供应中断持续，价格可能会维持在高位，加剧已在欧洲多国引发社会动荡的生活成本压力。
Meanwhile, European natural gas futures surged past €100 a megawatt-hour last week for the first time since 2022 amid fears the Iran war could further disrupt global gas supplies. While prices remain well below records reached during the previous energy crisis, they will likely remain elevated if disruptions persist, adding to cost-of-livingpressures that have fueled social unrest across Europe.
“以创纪录的低库存水平进入这个冬天，意味着欧洲极其脆弱地暴露在波动的全球液化天然气（LNG）市场中，将不得不直接与中国、日本等亚洲巨头竞争灵活的美国货源，”极光能源研究智库全球能源市场与氢能研究主管阿尼丝·甘博尔德表示。
“Entering this winter with record low stocks means Europe is extremely exposed to the volatile global LNG market and will need to compete directly with Asian giants such as China and Japan, for flexible US cargoes,” said Anise Ganbold, head of research for Global Energy Markets and Hydrogen at the Aurora Energy Research think tank.