以色列正为可能与伊朗爆发的新一轮长期战争做准备，其政治和军事领导层越来越确信外交突破不太可能。这些准备工作是在有关美国总统特朗普可能在本周美国中期选举后授权对伊朗基础设施和能源设施发动新打击的猜测中进行的。
Israel is preparing for a possible renewed and prolonged war with Iran, with its political and military leadership increasingly convinced that a diplomatic breakthrough is unlikely. The preparations come amid speculation that US President Donald Trump could authorise fresh strikes against Iranian infrastructure and energy facilities after this week's US midterm elections.
据ynet Global报道，一名以色列高级官员周六表示，“看起来我们正走向战争而非协议”，并补充说以色列正准备在投票结束后立即恢复战斗。
According to ynet Global, a senior Israeli official said on Saturday that "it looks like we're heading toward war rather than an agreement", adding that Israel was preparing for fighting to resume immediately after the polls.
事态发展之际，《华尔街日报》报道称，特朗普和以色列总理内塔尼亚胡于周六上午（美国时间）进行了通话。虽然该报道未披露两位领导人讨论了什么内容，但他们的通话发生在华盛顿和耶路撒冷为可能恢复敌对行动做准备之际。以色列为长期冲突做准备ynet Global还报道称，以色列正为持续的军事行动做准备，而非此前《华尔街日报》报道的为期三天、涉及定点打击的短暂行动。
The developments come as The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on Saturday morning, US time. While the report did not disclose what the two leaders discussed, their conversation took place amid preparations in Washington and Jerusalem for a possible resumption of hostilities.ISRAEL BRACES FOR PROLONGED CONFLICTynet Global also reported that Israel was preparing for a sustained military campaign rather than a brief, three-day operation involving targeted strikes, as previously reported by The Wall Street Journal.
以色列官员认为，对伊朗基础设施和能源设施的打击可能削弱政权并加速其垮台，特别是在经历两场战争和一场历史性的大规模抗议浪潮之后。
Israeli officials believe attacks on Iranian infrastructure and energy facilities could weaken the regime and accelerate its collapse, particularly after two wars and a historic wave of widespread protests.
美国中期选举结果也可能影响特朗普的决策。以色列官员认为，如果共和党遭遇挫折，军事行动的可能性可能会增加，因为美国总统可能寻求展示他仍保有相当大的政治和军事权威。
The US midterm results could also influence Trump's decision-making. Israeli officials believe the likelihood of military action could increase if Republicans suffer a setback, as the US President may seek to demonstrate that he retains considerable political and military authority.
他们还评估认为，特朗普在选举后将面临较小的政治损失，并不愿向德黑兰提供除已提出之外的让步。以色列也在为德黑兰可能发动先发制人攻击的可能性做准备，如果伊朗断定美以联合攻势迫在眉睫，可能会让以色列部队措手不及。一位熟悉讨论情况的以色列官员告诉 ynet Global，没有人想要另一场战争，特别是伊朗的海湾邻国。
They also assess that Trump would have less to lose politically after the elections and would be reluctant to offer Tehran concessions beyond those already proposed. Israel is also preparing for the possibility that Tehran could launch a pre-emptive attack if it concludes that a joint US-Israeli offensive is imminent, potentially catching Israeli forces off guard. An Israeli official familiar with the discussions told ynet Global that nobody wanted another war, particularly Iran's Gulf neighbours.
不过，他表示谈判仍处于停滞状态，德黑兰表现出极少妥协意愿。“别无选择，”该官员说，并补充称任何军事行动不仅取决于政治考量，还取决于作战条件。“如果所有条件都具备，就会发动打击，哪怕只是为了加速政权垮台或推动谈判向前发展，”他说。伊朗警告将进行更大规模报复即使可能升级的准备工作仍在继续，结束冲突的外交努力也在进行中。
However, he said negotiations remained stalled and Tehran was showing little willingness to compromise." There is no choice," the official said, adding that any military action would depend not just on political calculations but also on operational conditions. "If all the conditions fall into place, there will be a strike, even if only to accelerate the regime's collapse or move negotiations forward," he said.IRAN WARNS OF WIDER RETALIATIONEven as preparations for a possible escalation continue, diplomatic efforts to end the conflict are underway.
据路透社报道，伊朗谈判代表周六在多哈会见卡塔尔调解人，讨论结束战争的可能途径。此次会晤是在前一天进行了逾 12 小时谈判之后举行的，一名消息人士告诉该通讯社，讨论正在与华盛顿协调进行。与此同时，海湾国家认为，尽管特朗普迄今未下令新的打击，但他在美国中期选举后可能恢复对伊朗的军事行动。德黑兰也向华盛顿和特拉维夫发出了新的警告。
According to Reuters, Iranian negotiators met Qatari mediators in Doha on Saturday to discuss possible ways to end the war. The meeting followed more than 12 hours of negotiations the previous day, with a source telling the news agency that the discussions were being coordinated with Washington. Gulf countries, meanwhile, believe Trump could resume military action against Iran after the US midterms, despite having so far refrained from ordering fresh strikes. Tehran has also issued a fresh warning to Washington and Tel Aviv.
伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊周六表示，如果美国和以色列发动新的进攻，伊朗将决定结束战斗的时机和条件。
Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said on Saturday that if the US and Israel launched another offensive, Iran would determine the timing and conditions for ending the fighting.
据伊朗官方描述，在与高级军事指挥官举行会议后，哈梅内伊在一份署名书面声明中说，他已下令更新伊朗的军事目标清单，以确保所有“美犹复合体敌人的有形和无形资产”都在伊朗武力的打击范围之内。他还指示指挥官们保持应对大规模对抗的战备状态，并呼吁对任何袭击进行不受地理限制的报复。伊朗媒体称，出席会议的有伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官阿哈迈德·瓦希迪、武装部队参谋长阿里·阿卜杜拉希和正规军指挥官阿米尔·哈塔米。
In a written statement attributed to him following what Iranian authorities described as a meeting with senior military commanders, Khamenei said he had ordered an update of Iran's military target list to ensure that all "tangible and intangible assets of the American-Zionist enemy" would be within the reach of Iranian forces. He also instructed commanders to maintain combat readiness for a major confrontation and called for retaliation against any attack without geographical limitations. Iranian media said the meeting was attended by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Ahmad Vahidi, armed forces chief of staff Ali Abdollahi and regular army commander Amir Hatami.
自接任最高领袖以来，哈梅内伊未曾公开露面。据报道，他在2月28日以色列对伊朗的首轮打击中受伤，该打击针对的是其父、前任最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊的住宅区。
内塔尼亚胡的政权更迭推动与以色列的政治算计内塔尼亚胡表示，他已指示摩萨德和以色列国防军（IDF）致力于推翻伊朗政权，并称这是以色列政治领导层的指令。
Khamenei has not appeared publicly since taking over as supreme leader. He was reportedly wounded in Israel's opening strike against Iran on February 28, which targeted the residential compound of his father and predecessor, Ali Khamenei.NETANYAHU'S REGIME-CHANGE PUSH, ISRAEL'S POLITICAL EQUATIONSNetanyahu has said he instructed Mossad and the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) to work towards bringing down the Iranian regime, describing it as a directive from Israel's political leadership.A renewed conflict could also have significant consequences for Israel's domestic politics.
重燃冲突也可能对以色列国内政治产生重大影响。在该国大选后陷入政治僵局之际，另一场战争可能使组建下届政府的谈判复杂化，同时为建立国家紧急政府提供理由。
With the country facing a political deadlock following its elections, another war could complicate negotiations to form the next government while providing grounds for the establishment of a national emergency government.
这也可能增加特朗普介入组建团结政府的可能性，该政府将排除极右翼领导人伊塔马尔·本-格维尔和贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇。以色列官员认为，这种安排有助于特朗普追求其关于伊朗及扩大《亚伯拉罕协议》的更广泛目标。—— 完 ——
It could also increase the likelihood of Trump intervening in efforts to form a unity government that excludes far-right leaders Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Israeli officials believe such an arrangement could help Trump pursue his broader objectives concerning Iran and the expansion of the Abraham Accords.- Ends