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密歇根州选情:关于阿卜杜勒·埃尔-萨耶德与迈克·罗杰斯对决,你需要了解的一切Michigan race: All you need to know about Abdul El-Sayed v Mike Rogers

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美国参议院民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德与共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯。[资料图:法新社]Democratic candidate for US Senate Abdul El-Sayed alongside Republican candidate Mike Rogers. [File: AFP]

密歇根州迪尔伯恩——阿拉伯裔美国政治活动家查迪·阿卜杜勒拉泽克一直在做志愿者帮助民主党参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-萨耶德当选。他说,近几天他已接受了来自丹麦、瑞典、荷兰、法国和英国记者的采访。

Dearborn, Michigan – Chadi Abdulrazek, an Arab American political activist who has been volunteering to help elect Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, says he’s spoken in recent days to journalists from Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, France and the United Kingdom.

埃尔-萨耶德与其共和党对手迈克·罗杰斯之间的美国参议院竞选正吸引着全国乃至国际的关注,这反映出该竞选蕴含的强大政治象征意义远超国会参议院的一个席位。

The United States Senate race between El-Sayed and his Republican rival Mike Rogers is attracting national and international attention, reflecting the potent political symbolism that belies its outcome, which extends far beyond one seat in the upper chamber of Congress.

双方支持者都将这场角逐描绘为一场关键之战,其结果可能塑造未来数年该州乃至全国的政治走向。

Supporters in each camp paint the contest as a crucial fight that could shape the political direction of the state and the nation for years.

身为小企业主的阿卜杜勒拉泽克表示,这次选举是一个机会,可以让特朗普为违背其在世界范围内追求和平、专注美国民众需求的承诺负责。

Abdulrazek, a small business owner, said the election is a chance to hold Trump accountable for breaking his promises to pursue peace in the world and focus on the needs of Americans.

他补充道,对于在参议院竞选中遭受伊斯兰恐惧症攻击的阿拉伯和穆斯林社区而言,这次投票至关重要。

For Arab and Muslim communities that have been facing Islamophobic attacks as part of the Senate race, the vote is pivotal, he added.

阿卜杜勒拉泽克对半岛电视台表示:“关键在于,他们必须为自己挺身而出,说:‘我们是这个国家的一部分,我们将去投票,我们将真正带来改变’。”

“What’s on the line is they have to stand up for themselves and say, ‘We are part of this country, and we’re going to be voting, and we will actually make a change’,” Abdulrazek told Al Jazeera.

在此,半岛电视台梳理了密歇根州的美国参议院竞选及其备受关注的原因。候选人是谁?

Here, Al Jazeera looks at the US Senate race in Michigan and why it has gained so much attention. Who are the candidates?

埃尔-萨耶德是一位公共卫生倡导者,曾领导底特律及密歇根州东南部韦恩县的卫生部门。他今年42岁。

El-Sayed is a public health advocate who previously led the health department in Detroit and Wayne County in southeast Michigan. He is 42.

如果当选,这位埃及裔民主党人将成为美国历史上首位穆斯林参议员。

If elected, the Democrat of Egyptian descent would become the first-ever Muslim US senator.

埃尔-萨耶德曾于2018年竞选州长,但在民主党初选中败给了最终获胜的格雷琴·惠特默。这位民主党提名人拥抱进步政策,尤其是“全民医保”计划——一项将政府资助的医疗保健覆盖至美国所有人的方案。

El-Sayed ran for governor in 2018 but fell short in the Democratic primary against eventual winner Gretchen Whitmer. The Democratic nominee has embraced progressive policies, especially Medicare for All – a plan to expand government-funded healthcare to everyone in the US.

罗杰斯现年63岁,曾任美国国会议员和州议员。这位共和党提名人曾在2024年竞选参议员,以微弱劣势败给了中间派民主党参议员埃莉萨·斯洛特金。

Rogers is a 63-year-old former US Congress member and state legislator. The Republican nominee ran for the Senate in 2024 and narrowly lost to centrist Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin.

他是唐纳德·特朗普的亲密盟友,但一直试图在自己的竞选活动与这位不受欢迎的总统之间拉开一些距离。

He is a close ally of Donald Trump, but has sought to create some distance between his campaign and the unpopular president.

例如,罗杰斯支持特朗普决定与以色列一道发动针对伊朗的战争,同时也呼吁结束冲突。这位共和党候选人还主张减税、增加国内能源生产和放松监管。这场竞选为何如此重要?

For example, Rogers has supported Trump’s decision to join Israel in launching the war against Iran, while also calling for an end to the conflict. The Republican candidate also backs tax cuts, increasing domestic energy production and deregulation. Why is the race so important?

如果民主党在密歇根州失利,将很难控制参议院。该席位目前由即将退休的民主党人加里·彼得斯持有。

It will be difficult for Democrats to gain control of the Senate if they lose Michigan. The seat is currently held by retiring Democrat Gary Peters.

罗杰斯获胜将使这一摇摆州的参议院席位至少在未来六年内落入共和党手中。

A Rogers win would hand the swing state Senate seat to Republicans for at least six years.

然而,这场竞选不仅关乎参议院的党派算术。它也是对进步理念(包括对以色列的尖锐批评)在摇摆州选举可行性的一次考验。

The race, however, is not just about the partisan math in the Senate. It is a test of the electoral viability of progressive ideas, including sharp criticism of Israel, in a swing state.

虽然参议院有许多进步派成员,但大多数来自被视为民主党大本营的沿海州。

While the Senate has many progressive members, most come from coastal states considered Democratic strongholds.

如果埃尔-赛义德在密歇根州获胜,将表明他的主张能够吸引获胜所需的联盟,这可能会影响民主党总统候选人在2028年如何开展竞选活动。

A victory for El-Sayed in Michigan would show that his message can attract a winning coalition, which could influence how Democratic presidential candidates may go about their campaigning in 2028.

阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德的支持者周六在密歇根州迪尔伯恩集会 [Ali Harb/Al Jazeera]埃尔-赛义德的穆斯林信仰也是一个因素,这已成为罗杰斯和特朗普近乎每天攻击的主题。

Abdul El-Sayed’s supporters rally in Dearborn, Michigan, on Saturday [Ali Harb/Al Jazeera] There is also the factor of El-Sayed’s Muslim faith, which had become the subject of near daily attacks by Rogers and Trump.

这场竞选引发了一个问题:密歇根州和美国是否已准备好接受一位穆斯林参议员?为何以色列成为这场竞选的主要议题?

The race has raised questions about whether Michigan and the US are ready for a Muslim senator. Why has Israel become a major issue in the race?

周六,阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德的支持者在密歇根州迪尔伯恩举行集会[阿里·哈尔卜/半岛电视台]Abdul El-Sayed’s supporters rally in Dearborn, Michigan, on Saturday [Ali Harb/Al Jazeera]

埃尔-赛义德指责以色列在加沙实施种族灭绝,这呼应了主要人权组织和联合国调查员的调查结果。

El-Sayed has accused Israel of carrying out a genocide in Gaza, echoing the findings of major human rights organisations and United Nations investigators.

这位民主党人还将战争(包括伊朗冲突和美国对以色列的援助)与国内问题联系起来。他表示,美国纳税人的钱最好用于解决国内问题,例如医疗保健和日益破败的基础设施。亲以色列团体,即美国以色列公共事务委员会(AIPAC),已斥资数千万美元帮助击败埃尔-赛义德。

The Democrat has also linked wars, including the conflict in Iran and US aid to Israel, to domestic issues. He says that US taxpayer money is better spent on addressing issues at home, such as healthcare and crumbling infrastructure. Pro-Israel groups, namely the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), have spent tens of millions of dollars to help defeat El-Sayed.

AIPAC以超过3000万美元支持埃尔-赛义德的对手海莉·史蒂文斯,使以色列政策成为该选举中最受关注的议题之一。

AIPAC backed El-Sayed’s opponent Haley Stevens with more than $30m, making Israel policy one of the most discussed subjects in the election.

埃尔-赛义德在初选中克服了这场金钱攻势,但作为以色列坚定支持者的罗杰斯抓住了亲以色列倡导者(包括一些民主党人)对埃尔-赛义德的批评大做文章。

El-Sayed overcame the spending onslaught in the primaries, but Rogers – a staunch Israel supporter – has seized on the criticism of El-Sayed from pro-Israel advocates, including some Democrats.

罗杰斯——已承诺无条件支持以色列——指责埃尔-赛义德更关心巴勒斯坦而非密歇根州。

Rogers – who has pledged unconditional support for Israel – has accused El-Sayed of caring more for Palestine than Michigan.

在密歇根州竞选支出一度平静后,AIPAC重返赛场支持罗杰斯。

After a lull in spending in Michigan, AIPAC has returned to the race to back Rogers.

该亲以色列游说团体的选举分支机构“联合民主项目”已斥资数十万美元寄发反埃尔-赛义德的宣传邮件。据《纽约时报》报道,该组织已向一个支持罗杰斯的共和党团体注资900万美元。为什么海莉·史蒂文斯重回新闻头条?

The pro-Israel lobby group’s election arm, United Democracy Project, has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on mailers against El-Sayed. According to The New York Times, it has funnelled $9m to a Republican group supporting Rogers. Why is Haley Stevens back in the headlines?

初选落败的候选人在大选中成为主要情节一部分的情况并不常见,但史蒂文斯在投票前几天因其未婚夫背书罗杰斯而登上新闻头条,理由是埃尔-赛义德批评以色列在加沙发动“种族灭绝战争”。

It is uncommon for the candidate who lost a primary to be part of a major storyline in the general election, but Stevens has been making headlines days ahead of the vote after her fiance endorsed Rogers, citing El-Sayed’s criticism of Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.

作为美国众议院民主党议员的史蒂文斯也因埃尔-赛义德在以色列问题上的立场批评他,同时表示她仍将投票给民主党候选人。

Stevens, a Democrat in the US House of Representatives, has also criticised El-Sayed for his positions on Israel while saying she would still vote for the Democratic candidate.

这位女众议员反复在媒体露面抨击埃尔-赛义德,招致一些民主党人的鄙视。

The congresswoman’s repeated media appearances bashing El-Sayed have earned the scorn of some Democrats.

周五,埃尔-赛义德及多个民主党阵营团体和政客回应史蒂文斯,称该党必须专注于赢得参议院席位。

On Friday, El-Sayed and several Democratic-aligned groups and politicians responded to Stevens, saying that the party must focus on winning the Senate seat.

El-Sayed在一份声明中表示,虽然“击败特朗普精心挑选的候选人”应是当务之急,但“Stevens似乎意图重新争辩三个月前已结束的初选。”选民怎么说?

El-Sayed said in a statement that while “defeating Trump’s hand-picked candidate” should be the priority, “Stevens seems intent on relitigating a primary that ended three months ago.”What are the voters saying?

接受半岛电视台采访的Rogers和El-Sayed的支持者都强调了这场竞选的重要性。

Both Rogers and El-Sayed supporters interviewed by Al Jazeera have stressed the race’s importance.

前民主党人Cynthia Johnson表示,围绕El-Sayed宗教信仰和种族背景的负面竞选活动使得这次选举显得尤为关键。

Former Democratic Cynthia Johnson said the negative campaigning around El-Sayed’s religion and ethnicity makes the election especially crucial.

“真正处于关键时刻的是生死存亡。我们的孩子正接触到一些非常消极、恶劣的东西,”Johnson告诉半岛电视台。

“What’s really at stake is life or death. Our children are being exposed to some very negative, nasty things,” Johnson told Al Jazeera.

“我们必须像生命取决于此一样去投票,因为我们现在白宫里有个疯子,我们需要尽可能多的人站出来说话——像Abdul这样的人。”

“We have to vote like our lives depended on it because we have a person who’s in the White House right now who’s a maniac and we need as many people who are going to speak up as possible – people like Abdul.”

周日,在一场特朗普集会外,Rogers的支持者Rob Cortis表达了类似的紧迫感。

Outside a Trump rally on Sunday, Rogers supporter Rob Cortis expressed similar urgency.

“这次选举至关重要。我们的国家处于关键时刻。我们的边境处于关键时刻。美国孩子的未来处于关键时刻,”Cortis告诉半岛电视台。

“This election is so important. Our country is at stake. Our border is at stake. The future of our children in America is at stake,” Cortis told Al Jazeera.

Mike Rogers的支持者Rob Cortis在密歇根州Port Huron举行的唐纳德·特朗普总统集会外,摄于10月25日 [Ali Harb/半岛电视台]“如果局势逆转走向共产主义、社会主义,或者走向穆斯林统治,那从来就不是美国的初衷。美国注定是一个基督徒的国家,彰显上帝的善良。”民调怎么说?

Mike Rogers supporter Rob Cortis outside a rally for President Donald Trump in Port Huron, Michigan, October 25 [Ali Harb/Al Jazeera] “If it flips to communism, socialism or if it goes to Muslim rule America was never intended for that. America is intended to be a nation of Christians, showing the goodness of God.”What are the polls saying?

10月25日,迈克·罗杰斯的支持者罗布·科蒂斯在密歇根州休伦港举行的唐纳德·特朗普总统集会外[阿里·哈尔卜/半岛电视台]Mike Rogers supporter Rob Cortis outside a rally for President Donald Trump in Port Huron, Michigan, October 25 [Ali Harb/Al Jazeera]

最近的大多数民调显示El-Sayed以微弱优势领先Rogers——领先幅度在4到7个百分点之间。

Most recent polls have shown El-Sayed with a narrow lead over Rogers – ranging from four to seven percentage points.

然而,在人口超过1000万、多元化的密歇根州,过去几十年的民调一直不可靠,经常在几个百分点的幅度上预测错误。

However, polling in Michigan – a diverse state of more than 10 million people – has been unreliable over the past decades, often getting the results wrong by several percentage points.

《库克政治报告》将这场竞选归类为势均力敌,双方竞选团队都已警告支持者,结果可能取决于几千张选票。谁在为这场竞选买单?

The Cook Political Report has classified the race as a toss-up and both campaigns have warned their supporters that the result may come down to a few thousand votes. Who is spending in the race?

随着花费近3亿美元,密歇根州的参议院竞选正迅速成为全美最昂贵的竞选之一。

With nearly $300m spent, Michigan’s Senate race is quickly becoming one of the most expensive in the country.

与两大主要政党结盟的政治行动委员会(PAC)一直在购买广告,支持各自的候选人。

Political action committees (PACs) aligned with both major parties have been buying ads in support of their respective candidates.

在共和党方面,最大的出资者之一是参议院领袖基金,其最大捐赠者包括亲以色列亿万富翁米里亚姆·阿德尔森。

On the Republican side, one of the largest spenders has been Senate Leadership Fund, whose largest donors include pro-Israel billionaire Miriam Adelson.

“让美国再次伟大公司”(MAGA Inc)及其子公司“不退缩”,这是一个由美国总统的盟友(包括阿德尔森和埃隆·马斯克)资助的亲特朗普团体,也在该竞选中花费了数百万美元。

MAGA Inc and its subsidiary No Going Back, a pro-Trump group funded by the US president’s allies, including Adelson and Elon Musk, have also spent millions of dollars on the race.

据媒体报道,五大湖保守派基金(GLCF),一个获得美国以色列公共事务委员会(AIPAC)在大选中支持的密歇根州共和党政治行动委员会,也是主要出资者之一。

Great Lakes Conservatives Fund (GLCF), a Michigan Republican PAC that AIPAC has backed in general elections, has also been a big spender, according to media reports.

参议院多数派政治行动委员会(SMP)及其关联团体“赢取参议院”(WINSENATE)是最大的出资者。SMP的主要资助者包括商人弗雷德·艾克纳和小阿莫斯·霍斯特特。选举何时举行?提前投票正在密歇根州各地进行,已有数十万人投出了选票。

The Senate Majority PAC (SMP) and an affiliated group called WINSENATE have been the largest spenders. SMP’s top funders include businessmen Eychaner Fred and Amos Hostetter Jr. When is the election? Early voting is underway across Michigan and hundreds of thousands of people have already cast their ballots.

选举日是周二,11月3日,这将是最后一天投票。密歇根州的投票站于晚上8点关闭(周三凌晨01:00格林威治标准时间)。结果何时出炉?

Election day, Tuesday, November 3, will be the last day to vote. Polls in Michigan close at 8pm (01:00 GMT on Wednesday). When will the result come out?

这取决于竞选有多胶着。如果是势均力敌的较量,密歇根州可能要到周三才能知晓谁获胜。在8月的初选中,埃尔-赛义德以微弱优势击败史蒂文斯,美联社直到选举日后周三上午约10点(格林威治标准时间15:00)才宣布结果。

That depends on how close the race is. If it’s a tight contest, Michigan likely will not find out who won until Wednesday. In the primaries in August, when El-Sayed narrowly defeated Stevens, the Associated Press did not call the race until about 10am (15GMT) on the Wednesday after election day.

同样,2024年密歇根州判定特朗普获胜,也是在选举日后第二天下午约1点(格林威治标准时间18:00)左右。

Likewise, Michigan was called for Trump in 2024 around 1pm (18:00 GMT) on the day after the election.

然而,如果其中一位候选人在全州范围内取得压倒性领先,他可能在投票站关闭几小时后就被预测为赢家。

However, if one of the candidates acquires a commanding lead across the state, he could be projected as the winner hours after the polls close.

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