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CNN政治:民主党试图在关键的密歇根州参议院竞选中展现团结Democrats try to show unity in critical Michigan Senate race | CNN Politics

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  • 中西部团结:密歇根州民主党参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛德(Abdul El-Sayed)将于今日在底特律与该州民主党全州候选名单的其他成员一起举行动员选民集会。埃尔-赛德正试图争取黑人选民的支持,而共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯(Mike Rogers)则在强力冲击民主党的核心选民群体。今天早上可在CNN的《国家联盟》(“State of the Union”)节目中看到罗杰斯的表现。

• Midwestern unity : Abdul El-Sayed, Michigan’s Democratic nominee for US Senate, will hold a get-out-the-vote rally today in Detroit with other members of the party’s statewide ticket. El-Sayed is trying to reach Black voters as Republican nominee Mike Rogers makes a strong push to cut into a core Democratic constituency. Watch Rogers this morning on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

  • “艰难时刻”:共和党人私下里正面对选民对“腐败政客”和亿万富翁的愤怒。在生活成本和外交政策问题引发担忧的背景下,腐败问题似乎正在中期选举中凸显出来——并且尤其影响到共和党,因为该党正试图守住众议院席位。

• “Really tough times” : Republicans are privately grappling with voter anger about “corrupt politicians” and billionaires. Amid concerns about the cost of living and foreign policy, corruption appears to be breaking through in midterm campaigns — and particularly affecting the GOP as it tries to hold onto the House.

  • 德州激烈竞争:共和党参议员候选人肯·帕克斯顿(Ken Paxton)及其民主党对手詹姆斯·塔拉利科(James Talarico)将于今晚在众议院最受关注的几场竞争之一举行对抗性活动。

• Tight Texas contest: GOP Senate candidate Ken Paxton and his Democratic opponent, James Talarico , will hold dueling events this evening in one of the upper chamber’s most closely watched races.

阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在密歇根州大急流城于10月8日参加与共和党对手迈克·罗杰斯的辩论后观看现场。吉姆·冯德鲁斯卡/路透社Abdul El-Sayed looks on after taking part in a debate with Republican rival candidate Mike Rogers, in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on October 8. Jim Vondruska/Reuters

阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛德在10月8日于密歇根州大急流城与共和党对手候选人迈克·罗杰斯进行辩论后留影。吉姆·冯德鲁斯卡/路透社密歇根州民主党参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛德昨日在一次激烈的市政厅交流中公开否认了穆斯林兄弟会——一个伊斯兰主义政治运动。

Abdul El-Sayed looks on after taking part in a debate with Republican rival candidate Mike Rogers, in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on October 8. Jim Vondruska/Reuters Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed yesterday disavowed the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist political movement, during a heated exchange at a town hall.

埃尔-赛德若当选将成为历史上首位进入参议院的穆斯林,他一直面临共和党的指责,称他对与伊斯兰恐怖主义相关的利益持同情态度。最近几天,包括他的共和党对手迈克·罗杰斯和唐纳德·特朗普总统在内的多名共和党人士发表了关于他可能与该组织有关联的言论。

El-Sayed, who could make history as the first Muslim elected to the Senate, has frequently faced Republican accusations that he is sympathetic to interests connected to Islamic terror. In recent days, Republicans including his GOP challenger, Mike Rogers, and President Donald Trump have commented about potential connections to the organization.

在密歇根州卡罗镇(Caro, Michigan)的一场市政厅会议上,一名与会者多次追问埃尔-赛德关于穆斯林兄弟会的问题,称他尚未听到候选人明确拒绝该组织。

An attendee at a town hall in Caro, Michigan, repeatedly pressed El-Sayed about the Muslim Brotherhood, saying he had yet to hear the candidate reject the organization.

埃尔-赛德在否认该运动后,指责该男子暗中假设他存在“双重忠诚”。

El-Sayed, after disavowing the movement, blasted the man for implicitly assuming his “dual loyalty.”

最新的袭击发生在埃尔-赛义德的同父异母姐姐的旧推文在网上重新浮现之后,其中包括她在2012年的一条帖子,她在帖子中描述自己与母亲进行了一次“关于她在70年代早期在穆斯林兄弟会的活动主义的精彩谈话”,当时她正在上大学。

The latest attacks came after old tweets from El-Sayed’s half-sister resurfaced online, including a post from 2012 in which she described having “an amazing talk with my mom about her activism in the Muslim Brotherhood during the early 70s while she was in college.”

本周早些时候,埃尔-赛义德否认了他或其家人与穆斯林兄弟会有关联的指控,他告诉记者,认为他家中有人属于该组织的想法是“一个疯狂的假设”。阅读我们关于埃尔-赛义德市政厅互动的完整报道,请点击此处。

Earlier this week, El-Sayed denied allegations that he or his family has ties with the Muslim Brotherhood, telling reporters that to think that anybody in his family was part of the organization was “an insane thing to assume.”Read our full report on El-Sayed’s town hall interaction here.

乡村乐队The Chicks在圣安东尼奥昨晚的一场音乐会上将德克萨斯州民主党参议员提名人詹姆斯·塔拉里科称为“有计划的人”,并邀请他上台演出。

Country band The Chicks praised Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico as a “man with a plan” while bringing him onstage at a concert in San Antonio last night.

“我们今晚有一位非常特别的嘉宾,”乐队主唱娜塔莉·梅恩斯对观众说。“他是一个有计划的人。”

“We have a very special guest tonight,” Natalie Maines, the group’s lead vocalist, told the crowd. “He’s a man with a plan.”

“他永远不会拿走不属于他的另一支笔,”她继续说道,她在此提到了一起发生在十多年前的事件,涉及塔拉里科的共和党对手肯·帕克斯顿,据报道他把一支价值1000美元的钢笔放进了口袋,他的竞选团队称这是一次混-up。

“He’s a man who would never take another person’s pen that doesn’t belong to him,” she continued, referencing an incident from more than a decade ago involving Talarico’s Republican opponent, Ken Paxton, reportedly pocketing a $1,000 pen, which his campaign has said was a mix-up.

塔拉里科在向人群致辞时表示,能够回到这个城市他感到“非常好”,他曾在这里教授六年级的语文课。

Addressing the crowd, Talarico said that it was “so good” to return to the city, where he once taught sixth grade language arts.

“我从记事起就喜欢The Chicks,”塔拉里科说。“他们的音乐、他们的歌曲创作、他们的和声,但也包括他们所代表的东西,”他继续说道,并补充说他“感到非常自豪”,因为这个乐队来自德克萨斯州。

“I have loved The Chicks for as long as I can remember,” Talarico said. “Their music, their songwriting, their harmonies, but also what they represent,” he continued, adding that he is “so proud” that the band is from Texas.

塔拉里科还赞扬了该乐队的“勇气、信念以及敢于向权力说真意愿”。

Talarico also lauded the group’s “courage, conviction, and a willingness to speak truth to power.”

更多背景:The Chicks,以前被称为Dixie Chicks,因在2000年代初对前总统乔治·W·布什的评论而遭到反对。

More context: The Chicks, formerly known as the Dixie Chicks, faced backlash in the early 2000s for their comments about former President George W. Bush.

2003年,在伊拉克战争爆发之前,梅恩斯在一场音乐会上表示,这个起源于达拉斯的乐队不支持这场战争,并且“为美国总统来自德克萨斯州而感到羞耻”。

In 2003, before the invasion of Iraq, Maines said at a concert that the group, which got its start in Dallas, did not endorse the war and were “ashamed the president of the United States is from Texas.”

他们对布什的言论引发了粉丝的抵制和反弹,导致全国各地的乡村电台将该组织的音乐从广播中撤下。

Their remarks about Bush triggered boycotts and backlash from fans, resulting in country stations across the country pulling the group’s music from the radio.

肯·帕克斯顿在德克萨斯州罗克沃尔市政机场举行的活动中,向与会者发表讲话,拉开其竞选巴士巡演的序幕。托尼·古铁雷斯/美联社Ken Paxton speaks to attendees as he kicks off his campaign's bus tour during an event at the Rockwall Municipal Airport in Texas on Saturday. Tony Gutierrez/AP

肯·帕克斯顿在得克萨斯州罗克沃尔市政机场举行的活动中,在启动其竞选巴士之旅时向与会者发表讲话。托尼·古铁雷斯/美联社美国商会正在支持肯·帕克斯顿参加得克萨斯州参议院选举,为这位共和党候选人提供助力,因为他正努力争取传统共和党人的支持,以应对激烈的竞争。

ing. Ken Paxton speaks to attendees as he kicks off his campaign's bus tour during an event at the Rockwall Municipal Airport in Texas on Saturday. Tony Gutierrez/AP The US Chamber of Commerce is endorsing Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, giving the GOP candidate a boost as he scrambles to shore up support from traditional Republicans in a tight race.

此次支持是在帕克斯顿在初选中击败商会原本支持的候选人、参议员约翰·科宁数月之后发生的。那场初选竞争激烈。帕克斯顿是该州司法部长,如今他面临民主党州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科的挑战,后者正试图成为数十年来首位赢得全州选举的民主党人。

The endorsement comes months after Paxton defeated the chamber’s original choice in the contest, Sen. John Cornyn, in a contentious primary runoff. Paxton, the state attorney general, now faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who is trying to become the first Democrat to win statewide office in decades.

帕克斯顿及其盟友一直在努力巩固他在共和党内的基本盘,尤其是在竞选进入最后几周之际,因为现任参议员科宁仍在保留他的支持。曾在初选中支持帕克斯顿而非科宁的总统唐纳德·特朗普周四表示,科宁正在“尽一切可能让帕克斯顿在11月的选举中获胜变得困难”。

Paxton and his allies have been pushing to consolidate his GOP base in the closing weeks of the race, especially as incumbent Sen. Cornyn continues to withhold his endorsement. President Donald Trump, who endorsed Paxton over Cornyn in the primary, said Thursday that Cornyn is doing “everything possible to make it hard” for Paxton to win in November.

帕克斯顿是一位知名的文化战争斗士,他试图将自己的大选竞选重点放在美国商会等团体关注的更多经济议题上。他提出了新的税收抵免以降低生活成本,并批评塔拉里科反对一项2019年法案——该法案旨在通过宪法禁止得克萨斯州征收所得税,而得克萨斯州目前并未征收所得税。

Paxton, a well-known culture warrior, has sought to center his general election campaign around more economic issues that are important to groups such as the US Chamber of Commerce. He has proposed new tax deductions to lower the cost of living and gone after Talarico for voting against a 2019 bill to constitutionally ban an income tax in Texas, a state which does not currently have one.

2026年10月17日,示威者在弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿的纪念圈附近参加“不设国王:提前投票”集会。全国性行动日正在全国各地城市举行,重点在于投票率、提前投票和选举保护,此举是在中期选举之前进行的。阿米德·法拉希/法新社/盖蒂图片社热情的选民和抗议者昨天在全国各地的“无国王:提前投票”活动中成千上万地涌现。

Demonstrators take part in a "No Kings: Vote Early" rally near Memorial Circle in Arlington, Virginia, on October 17, 2026. The national day of action is taking place in cities across the country focusing on voter turnout, early voting and election protection, ahead of the midterm elections. Amid Farahi/AFP/Getty Images Enthusiastic voters and protesters turned out by the thousands at “No Kings: Vote Early” events across the country yesterday.

此前的“无国王”抗议活动主要被定位为反对总统唐纳德·特朗普及其政府,但组织者表示,昨天的活动旨在反对选民压制行为,并帮助人们制定投票计划。但这些活动中也充斥着大量反特朗普情绪。

While previous “No Kings” protests were framed primarily as opposition to President Donald Trump and his administration, organizers said yesterday’s events intended to oppose voter suppression efforts and help people make plans to cast their ballots. But there was plenty of anti-Trump sentiment at the events, too.

CNN参加了几场示威活动,了解人们为何参加,以及为何他们认为在这一选举周期投票如此重要。

CNN attended several of the demonstrations to hear why people showed up and why they think voting is so important this election cycle.

一群人聚集在华盛顿特区,就在特朗普提议建凯旋门的地点附近,抗议总统的几项政策,并鼓励其他人在中期选举中投票。

A crowd of people gathered in Washington, DC , just steps away from the site of Trump’s proposed triumphal arch, to protest several of the president’s policies and encourage others to vote during the midterm election.

华盛顿特区的大学生聚集在林肯纪念堂台阶上,举着标语,内容从“否决奇多”到“抓住他们的中期选举”。

DC college students gathered on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial, carrying signs ranging from “veto the cheeto” to “grab ‘em by the mid-terms.”

18岁的乔治城大学大一新生杰里米亚·富恩特斯与乔治城大学民主党团体一起参加了活动。他说他“非常兴奋”能第一次投票,他最关心的问题是移民和可负担性。

Jeremiah Fuentes, an 18-year-old freshman at Georgetown University, attended the event with the Georgetown College Democrats group. He said he’s “really excited” to vote for the first time and that his top issues are immigration and affordability.

CNN的拉斐尔·罗莫昨天还在佐治亚州马里埃塔的一个“无国王”活动中与选民交谈,那里的人们在繁忙的十字路口聚集,举着批评特朗普并鼓励人们投票的标语。

CNN’s Rafael Romo also spoke to voters yesterday at a “No Kings” event in Marietta, Georgia, where people gathered around a busy intersection with signs criticizing Trump and encouraging people to vote.

示威者参加在俄亥俄州辛辛那提于周六举行的“无国王提前投票”集会和游行。杰森·惠特曼/NurPhoto/美联社Demonstrators participate in the No Kings Vote Early rally and march in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Saturday. Jason Whitman/NurPhoto/AP

示威者参加俄亥俄州辛辛那提的“无国王提前投票”集会和游行。Jason Whitman/NurPhoto/AP距离中期选举还有将近两周,民主党和共和党的候选人昨天在美国各地举行了竞选活动,而数千场旨在促进选举大规模投票的活动也举行了。回顾昨天的主要进展:唐纳德·特朗普总统承诺,如果共和党人能保住国会控制权,他将为肯塔基州的一家制药厂提供1亿美元的投资。这是他为回报支持者而许下的又一项承诺,前提是他的政党能在11月大选中获胜。

Demonstrators participate in the No Kings Vote Early rally and march in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Saturday. Jason Whitman/NurPhoto/AP With nearly two weeks until the midterm elections, both Democratic Party and GOP hopefuls held campaign events across the US yesterday, while thousands of events aimed at promoting mass turnout for the elections also took place. Catch up on yesterday’s main developments: President Donald Trump promised a $100 million investment in a pharmaceutical plant in Kentucky if Republicans hold onto Congress, the latest gift he’s offered to supporters if his party wins in November. Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed held a town hall in the city of Midland, where he slammed gun policies and disavowed the Muslim Brotherhood , an Islamist political movement.

密歇根州民主党参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在米德兰市举办了市民大会。会上他严厉批评了当前的枪支政策,并公开与伊斯兰主义政治组织“穆斯林兄弟会”划清界限。

GOP Sen. Darline Graham of South Carolina, who was appointed to fill her late brother’s seat and is now running for a full term, broke with Trump over his executive order waiving sanctions on Russian fossil fuel sales. Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican nominee for Ohio governor, campaigned in the state’s Monroe County, which gave Trump nearly 80% of the vote in 2024.

南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆此前被任命接替已故兄长的席位,如今正竞选连任。她与特朗普在是否解除对俄罗斯化石燃料销售制裁这一行政命令问题上持不同意见。

He promised to be “the most conservative governor we have ever seen in the history of our state.”“No Kings: Vote Early” events were planned to take place in all 50 states and Puerto Rico. Rallygoers in Washington, DC , held signs including “Hands off our vote” and “You can’t fix stupid but you can vote it out.”ing.

俄亥俄州共和党州长候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米在该州门罗县展开竞选活动。2024年总统选举中,该县有近80%的选民把票投给了特朗普。拉马斯瓦米承诺要成为“俄亥俄州历史上最保守的州长”。

THERE MUCH FOR THAT. AND WHILE THE PRESIDENT CAMPAIGNS THERE IN KENTUCKY, THE MAP IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY WORRISOME FOR REPUBLICANS. A NEW UPDATE FROM THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT SHIFTS 11 ADDITIONAL HOUSE RACES TOWARD DEMOCRATS, AND THOSE INCLUDE DISTRICTS THE PRESIDENT WON BY DOUBLE DIGITS IN 2024.

“拒绝独裁:尽早投票”宣传活动计划在全美50个州及波多黎各举行。在华盛顿特区,参加集会的人们举着诸如“别干涉我们的投票权”以及“愚蠢无法被纠正,但可以通过投票将其赶下台”等标语牌。

AND JOINING US NOW TO BREAK THAT DOWN IS COOK POLITICAL REPORT FOUNDER AND CONTRIBUTOR CHARLIE COOK. CHARLIE, IT'S GREAT TO HAVE YOU HERE WITH US IN THIS LATEST UPDATE. YOU ALL POINT OUT THAT REPUBLICANS TROUBLES ARE PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED IN THESE MIDWESTERN RED STATES.

正如我们之前指出的,正在向民主党转移的地区在俄亥俄州、内布拉斯加州和堪萨斯州。所以请帮我们具体了解这些州的情况。>> 好吧,这些是我以前在库克政治报告的同事们的评级。我离开那里大约五年了。但问题是,我们看到的是,共和党在本不该苦苦挣扎的地方苦苦挣扎。如果你想想,无论是因为伊朗战争导致的汽油、柴油、燃油、化肥价格高企,还是因为打击农民的农业关税,这些都实际上让红色美国受到的打击更多、伤害更大,比许多蓝色、更民主党的地区或摇摆地区更严重。

AND IN FACT, HALF OF YOUR LATEST HOUSE RATINGS CHANGES, ALL OF WHICH, AS WE NOTED, ARE SHIFTING TOWARD DEMOCRATS ARE IN OHIO, NEBRASKA, AND KANSAS. SO HELP US UNDERSTAND WHAT'S GOING ON IN THOSE STATES, SPECIFICALLY. >> WELL, THESE ARE THE RATINGS THAT MY FORMER COLLEAGUES AT THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT. I'VE BEEN UH, SEPARATES THEM FOR ABOUT FIVE YEARS. BUT THE THING IS, WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS REPUBLICANS ARE STRUGGLING IN PLACES THAT THEY SHOULDN'T HAVE TO BE STRUGGLING. AND IF YOU THINK ABOUT WHETHER IT'S HIGH GASOLINE, DIESEL, FUEL OIL, FERTILIZER PRICES BECAUSE OF THE IRAN WAR, WHETHER YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT TARIFFS FOR FARM TARIFFS ON ON THAT HIT FARMERS PARTICULARLY BADLY, THAT RED AMERICA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN HIT MORE, HURT MORE, UH, THAN A LOT OF BLUE, MORE DEMOCRATIC AREAS OR PURPLE SWING AREAS.

所以我们看到共和党在参议院和众议院选举中的评级下降的地方,是那些不成比例的农村小城镇、小城市。这不是共和党通常需要担心的地方,但是,嗯,他们,嗯,他们某种程度上承受了主要打击。这就是为什么共和党对他们的投票率如此担忧,嗯,他们自己的人可能根本不会出现投票,这在中期选举中通常会有一点这种情况,但这看起来比总统执政党通常面临的问题更严重。

AND SO WHERE WE'RE SEEING REPUBLICANS RATINGS IN BOTH SENATE AND HOUSE RACES, RACES, IT'S WHERE IT'S, IT'S DISPROPORTIONATELY RURAL SMALL TOWNS, SMALLER CITIES. IT'S NOT WHERE REPUBLICANS NORMALLY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT, BUT, UM, THEY'VE, UH, THEY'VE SORT OF BORNE THE BRUNT OF THIS. AND THAT'S WHY REPUBLICANS ARE SO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR TURNOUT, UH, THAT THEIR OWN PEOPLE JUST MAY NOT SHOW UP, WHICH TO IS A CERTAIN, IT'S TYPICAL A LITTLE BIT TO, UH, MIDTERM ELECTIONS, BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE IT'S A BIGGER PROBLEM THAN IT NORMALLY IS FOR A PRESIDENT'S PARTY. >> AND THERE'S KIND OF PIGGYBACKING ON THAT.

并且,这在某种程度上是另一个趋势,与上述情况类似。库克政治报告最近的一些分析中也注意到,那些曾投票支持贝拉克·奥巴马,但在特朗普时期又转向共和党的国会选区,现在看起来比近年来更具竞争性。我认为其中许多可能也属于你所说的那一类。嗯,但请告诉我们关于这一点,因为我知道这种情况正在发生。

ANOTHER TREND THAT HAS BEEN NOTED IN SOME OF THE RECENT ANALYSIS ON THE COOK REPORT IS, IS THAT SEATS THAT VOTED OR CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS THAT VOTED FOR BARACK OBAMA, BUT THEN SWUNG BACK TOWARD REPUBLICANS IN THIS TRUMP ERA ARE STARTING TO LOOK MUCH MORE COMPETITIVE THAN THEY'VE BEEN IN RECENT YEARS. AND I THINK A LOT OF THOSE WOULD PROBABLY FALL INTO THE BUCKET THAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT AS WELL. UM, BUT TELL US ABOUT THAT BECAUSE I KNOW THAT'S HAPPENING HERE IN KIND OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AS WELL >> WELL, YOU HAD, UH, SOME MINORITY, SOME HISPANIC, AFRICAN AMERICAN, YOUNG AFRICAN AMERICAN MEN.

在纽约州北部的这些地区也是如此。嗯,当时有一些少数族裔群体,比如西班牙裔、非裔美国人,还有年轻的非裔男性。这些群体通常都倾向于支持民主党。但在2024年,他们却开始远离民主党。我认为这是因为通货膨胀和利率上涨等因素对他们造成了巨大冲击,于是他们转而更多地支持共和党。不过我觉得这次他们应该会重新回归到支持民主党的阵营。

YOU HAD CERTAIN GROUPS THAT NORMALLY ARE PRETTY DEMOCRATIC. BUT IN 24, THEY MOVED AWAY FROM DEMOCRATS. AND I THINK IT WAS BECAUSE THEY GOT HIT SO HARD BY INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES, THAT SORT OF THING. AND SO THEY KIND OF SWUNG OVER MORE TOWARDS REPUBLICANS. AND I THINK THIS TIME WE'RE GOING TO SEE THEM SORT OF KIND OF REVERT BACK TO THE MAIN, COME BACK OVER, BACK TOWARDS TOWARDS DEMOCRATS. BUT WE'RE SEEING THAT IN SORT OF CONGRESSIONAL RACES IN SOUTH TEXAS.

这一点在德克萨斯州南部的国会选举中已经有所体现。嗯,在很多原本共和党以为能够争取过来的地区,选民们似乎又回到了2024年之前的投票倾向。

UM, AND, YOU KNOW, A LOT OF PLACES AROUND WHERE, UM, GROUPS THAT REPUBLICANS THOUGHT THEY HAD BEEN MAKING SOME INROADS MAY BE SLIPPING GOING BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO 2024. >> AND AS SOMEBODY WHO HAS COVERED POLITICS FOR A LONG TIME AND DONE A LOT OF ANALYSIS OF AMERICAN VOTERS, I'M CURIOUS WHAT HAPPENED.

作为一名长期报道政治新闻且对美国选民做过大量分析的人,我很想知道究竟发生了什么。目前我们看到的趋势就是选民倾向反复摇摆,尤其是在总统选举方面。即便在国会层面,真正属于“摇摆选区”的地区也越来越少。这对美国政治意味着什么?又会对当前的局势产生怎样的影响呢?

WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS A TREND NOW IS WE'RE SWINGING SO FAR BACK AND FORTH, BACK AND FORTH, ESPECIALLY IN THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH. BUT EVEN IN CONGRESS AS WELL, OBVIOUSLY, YOU HAVE A LOT OF DISTRICTS, FAR FEWER DISTRICTS, LET'S SAY, THAT ARE TRUE PURPLE. THAT REALLY COULD BE A SWING DISTRICT. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR FOR OUR POLITICS? AND HOW DOES THAT IMPACT WHAT WE'RE SEEING RIGHT NOW? >> WELL, I THINK YOUR POINT ABOUT SWINGING IS ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.

嗯,我认为您所说的“选民倾向反复摇摆”这一点完全正确。在美国历史上,这是第一次出现连续五任总统就职时都拥有参众两院的多数席位;可当他们离任时,所属政党不仅失去了总统职位,还丢掉了参众两院的多数地位。从比尔·克林顿、乔治·W·布什、巴拉克·奥巴马、唐纳德·特朗普一直到乔·拜登,情况都是如此。也就是说,一个政党上台后往往会行事过激,试图在短期内推行太多政策,结果导致失势;而另一个政党上台后也会重蹈覆辙。

I MEAN, THIS IS THE FIRST TIME IN AMERICAN HISTORY THAT WE HAVE NOW HAD FIVE CONSECUTIVE NEW PRESIDENTS COME INTO OFFICE, TAKE THE OATH OF OFFICE WITH MAJORITIES IN BOTH THE SENATE AND THE HOUSE. AND WHEN THEY LEFT OFFICE, THEIR PARTY HAD NOT ONLY LOST THE PRESIDENCY, BUT LOST THEIR MAJORITIES IN BOTH THE HOUSE AND SENATE. SO STARTING WITH, YOU KNOW, BILL, BILL CLINTON, GEORGE W. BUSH, BARACK OBAMA, DONALD TRUMP, JOE BIDEN, UH, SO THAT A PARTY GETS IN, THEY OVERREACH, THEY TRY TO DO TOO MUCH OR TWO, TOO MANY THINGS TOO FAST AND GET THROWN OUT. AND THEN THE OTHER PARTY COMES IN AND THEY DO THE SAME

THING。另一个统计数据是,呃,你知道,在本世纪我们举行的13次选举中,从2000年开始,有11次,控制权要么在众议院、参议院或总统职位上,要么从民主党转到共和党,要么从共和党转到民主党,11次中的11次。那就是,那就是,那就是我们从未见过这种情况。所以你关于摇摆的观点完全正确。>> 是的。而且,看到这些政党执政后意味着什么,然后又是怎样的“反复循环”,这也很有趣。所以我们将看到这在未来意味着什么。

THING. THE OTHER STATISTIC IS THAT, UH, YOU KNOW THAT IN THE 13 ELECTIONS THAT WE'VE HAD THIS CENTURY, STARTING 2000, IN 11 OUT OF 13 CONTROL OF EITHER THE HOUSE, THE SENATE OR THE PRESIDENCY HAS FLIPPED FROM DEMOCRAT TO REPUBLICAN OR REPUBLICAN TO DEMOCRAT, 11 OUT OF 13. THAT'S THAT'S THAT WE'VE NEVER SEEN THIS BEFORE. SO YOUR POINT ON SWINGING IS ABSOLUTELY RIGHT. >> YEAH. AND IT IS IT IS ALSO INTERESTING TO THEN SEE WHAT THAT MEANS WHEN THESE PARTIES GOVERN AND THEN HOW IT'S KIND OF A RINSE AND REPEAT. SO WE WILL SEE WHAT THAT MEANS MOVING

向前。但是的,请继续。你还有最后一点要说吗 >> 是的。中期选举的选民,选民会惩罚任何让他们失望或背叛他们的人。最近一次。而这往往意味着他们正在转而反对两年前刚刚投过票的政党。而这就是常态。

FORWARD. BUT YEAH, GO AHEAD. DID YOU HAVE A LAST POINT >> YEAH. THE VOTERS IN MIDTERM ELECTIONS, VOTERS PUNISH WHOEVER HAS DISAPPOINTED OR BETRAYED THEM. MOST RECENTLY. AND WHICH OFTENTIMES MEANS THEY ARE TURNING AGAINST THE PARTY THAT THEY JUST VOTED FOR TWO YEARS EARLIER. AND THAT'S THE NORM.

而且,这似乎正是这里真正、真正、真正发生的事情,那就是他们对乔·拜登、拜登-哈里斯政府感到愤怒,两

AND, AND THAT'S WHAT SEEMS TO BE REALLY, REALLY, REALLY HAPPENING HERE IS THAT THEY WERE MAD AT AT JOE BIDEN, THE BIDEN-HARRIS ADMINISTRATION, TWO

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